A spate of dropped catches on day three of the fifth Ashes Test means England are on the ropes once again – Richard Mann looks ahead to day four in Sydney.
Cricket tips: Day four betting update
No recommended bets
Another day of missed opportunities for England at the end of a series of what might have beens has left Australia firmly in control of the fifth Test with two days remaining.
Travis Head and then Steve Smith both competed centuries on a day of domination for the hosts, but not before both were the recipient of dropped catches. In fact, England missed four chances before Lunch.
All that means that Australia lead by 134 runs with three first-innings wickets still in hand, the unbeaten Smith, who progressed to 129 at the close of the play, one of them. Things are looking grim for England.
It was a sloppy display from the tourists that sums up the culture of this team under Brendon McCullum, and it's quite remarkable to think the Kiwi is likely to stay in his post beyond this disastrous tour.
That's for another day, but back to the here and now and Australia have hardened to 1.3 on the Betfair Exchange to win the match, though not that drastic a shift from 24 hours ago, with the draw shortening more significantly into 5.0. England can now be backed at 29.0
Batting was always expected to prove a disadvantage in this game, on this pitch, but Australia might now only need to bat once.
With conditions expected to deteriorate, one does wonder whether an England implosion with the bat in the third innings is incoming, which means taking big prices down the order for top batsman honours has to be considered.
Brydon Carse is 28/1 with Sky Bet to win the market, probably no gift and reflective of the fact I'm not the only one thinking this way. He's shorter elsewhere.
Matthew Potts (66/1) can hold a bat and generally likes a fight, but he's batting down at number 10.
Posted at 10:15 GMT on 06/01/26
Cricket tips: Day three betting update
1pt England to win the fifth Test at 9/2 (General)
1pt Josh Tongue to take 3+ wickets in the first innings at 11/4 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
After Joe Root had compiled his second century of the series, a brilliant 160, Australia fought back well on day two of the fifth Ashes Test in Sydney, closing on 166-2 to reduce their arrears to 218 runs. Travis Head, unbeaten on 91, is marching towards his third hundred of the summer.
All that means that Australia have hardened in the match market to 2/5, but that could prove to be an overreaction, with ENGLAND making some appeal at 9/2.
In essence, this remains a good pitch, but there is already evidence that batting will get tougher as the game progresses. That would be typical of the SCG, and there were sings of uneven bounce even on the second day.
England would be right to feel that if they can make early inroads on the third morning and ensure Australia don’t get too far ahead after the first innings, or even stop them from reaching parity, then batting last on this surface in anything like a one-innings shootout will prove very challenging.
Clearly, that man Head will be key, though more important is that England bowl better to him. Brydon Carse has been too short all throughout the series, Matthew Potts followed suit with the new ball, and only did things improve when captain Ben Stokes, who claimed both Australian wickets to fall, delivered an extended spell.
I suspect Stokes will take the lead in the morning, along with MCG Man of the Match Josh Tongue, and a couple of early strikes would open the door to the likes of Steve Smith, who has endured a poor series by his standards, and the struggling Cameron Green.
A strong start from the tourists could quickly turn this match on its head, and the market. Head and Alex Carey apart, this Australia batting line-up hasn’t been bombproof this summer, just that bit more reliable than England’s.
I’m happy to chance England to small stakes at the odds, with plenty of runs still in Stokes’ pocket and the knowledge that Australia will be disadvantaged batting last on this surface.
As I’ve already alluded to, Stokes and JOSH TONGUE promise to be England’s match-winners, or at the very least, crucial to their team’s chances.
Tongue has enjoyed a fruitful time of it following his belated introduction to the series in Adelaide, taking five wickets there and adding seven more in Melbourne.
Part of Tongue’s strength is that he isn’t afraid to pitch the ball up, angling the ball into the stumps from that awkward release point of his, and again, that looks the way to go on this wicket judging by the first two days.
The other thing we saw from Tongue last summer was how effective he is when getting a sniff at the lower order – think Headingley for starters, where he mopped up India’s tail with little fuss.
Ifs and buts, candy and nuts, but if England can get on a roll in the morning, expect Tongue to be the man dishing up the tail, especially with Jofra Archer and Mark Wood missing from this away bowling attack.
A genuine strike bowler, I still like the look of TONGUE TO TAKE 3+ WICKETS IN THE FIRST INNINGS at 11/4.
Posted at 11:55 GMT on 05/01/26
Cricket tips: Day two betting update
No recommended bets
Rain curtailed the opening day of the fifth Ashes Test in Sydney, but not before England had made a strong start to their bid to leave with Australia with back-to-back Test match victories.
Having won the fourth Test in Melbourne, the tourists carried that momentum forward with the bat, closing day one on 211-3, in the main thanks to an unbroken stand of 154 between Joe Root (72) and Harry Brook (78) after they had initially slipped to 57-3.
Root's half-century means the pre-match preview has a 15/8 winner in the bag already, with the top England batsman bet also alive and kicking.
More rain is forecast on day two, meaning the current 4.5 about the draw on the Betfair Exchange could shorten further, and those to have taken the 32.0 after those early wickets are now sitting pretty.
However, tomorrow’s rain should be the last we see, and there is still ample time for either side to force a result, with two batting line-ups that have hardly been bombproof across the series.
Australia are clinging onto favouritism at 2.38 (Betfair Exchange prices), with England currently available at 2.7, but perhaps that’s the wrong way round.
England really should be eying a first-innings total in excess of 400 from here, with another 35 overs until the second new ball and Australia having not selected a spinner in their XI.
Brook, in particular, has the potential to put Australia to the sword on day two, and it might well be England who are favourites this time tomorrow.
I’m not especially interested in playing the match market at present, however, unless for trading purposes, and none of the current prices have enough legs to lure me in.
Fingers crossed Root can finish the job, then, and with Usman Khawaja – who is making his final international appearance this week – to come in the top Australia batsman market, we have enough running for us on the second day.
There is so much cricket to come in this match that more opportunities ought to present themselves as the game progresses, and it will be interesting to see how this pitch holds up with some better weather in that forecast.
Posted at 08:30 GMT on 04/01/26
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling.
Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.