Chris Oliver struck gold with last weekend's big-fight preview, and he returns with his take on Liam Smith's rematch with Chris Eubank Jr on Saturday night.
Boxing betting tips: Liam Smith v Chris Eubank Jr
2pts Liam Smith to win in rounds 7-12 at 10/3 (William Hill)
Chris Eubank Jr finds himself in the very unusual position of being the underdog for his hotly-anticipated rematch with Liam Smith at the Manchester Arena on Saturday.
A very warm 2/5 favourite for their first encounter, Eubank is as big as 11/8 for their return on Sky Sports Box Office this weekend and his career is very much on the line after what happened in January.
With little to separate the pair in a cagey opening couple of rounds, Eubank began to have success in the third session before Smith shocked everyone by stopping the favourite in the fourth. Having backed Eubank into a corner, the Liverpool man unleashed a vicious two-fisted attack and connected with several big shots to put Eubank on the deck for the first time in his career. Very unsteady on his feet, Eubank was allowed to continue, and it didn’t take much more for him to be put on the canvas again before for the fight was waved off.
Despite being a 12/5 chance first time around, Smith winning wasn’t a big surprise but the way he did so certainly was. Nobody thought Smith could stop his man, never mind in the comprehensive manner that he did and the image of Eubank doing a chicken dance after the first knockdown was a shocking one. Now, Eubank returns to the same venue to go straight back in with the man who brutally stopped him last time, and the psychological implications of that make this such a fascinating contest.
Eubank has always worn the granite chin he inherited from his famous fighting father as a badge of honour. Yes, he had been beaten twice before, but only by world-class operators in Billy Joe Saunders and George Groves and they were both via the scorecards. In all 34 previous outings, the Brighton brawler had seemingly never been hurt or seriously buzzed, even when the heavy-handed Groves landed flush with heavy rights hands. That was up at super-middleweight, so how could a career light-middleweight like Smith, who is not noted for his power, trouble the teak-tough Eubank at middleweight?
Well, Eubank was originally slated to face Conor Benn at a catchweight of 157lb last year and, despite the fight falling through just days before the first bell, the Brighton native still decided to make the contracted weight as a show of bravado for his social media followers. His post may have gained plenty of ‘likes’, but the struggles he had gone through to get there were written all over his massively depleted body and boiling down to that weight for the first time at 33 years of age would appear to have taken its toll on fight night.
Eubank’s ego must have been severely bruised by such a devastating knockout and he hasn’t been able to play the usual cocksure, sharp-tongued villain role with such conviction in the build-up this time. Perhaps for the first time in his boxing life, there will be doubts in his mind over his durability and that doesn’t bode well for him.
Chin issues aside, Smith may just be all ‘wrong’ for Eubank anyway and starts as a 4/6 favourite this time. Having fancied him to win first time but on the scorecards, I referenced Smith’s relentless educated pressure being a problem for Eubank, who likes to take regular breathers and doesn’t have anywhere near the engine some would have you believe. Smith will force him to fight for three minutes of every round again and that is as big a concern for Eubank as his chin, in my opinion.
That being said, Eubank did have some success in their first encounter. His advantage in speed was notable and his longer arms allowed him to land regularly with the jab. His athleticism and quick mitts will undoubtedly enable him to find a home for scoring shots again and could well open an early lead on the cards again. However, the much more technically-sound Smith was closing the gap with each round in January and keeping out of range for 12 rounds is going be an issue for Eubank again.
We know what we’ll get from Smith, who will walk forward behind his high guard and attempt to get in range to unleash his attacks, but he is much more skilful than meets the eye and there is plenty of method to his madness. The 35-year-old has been in the form of his life since teaming up with coach Joe McNally in recent years and he has thrived on being active in his Indian summer.
Eubank may be a little more durable having not cooked his body down 157lb again prior to the rematch, but once a fighter’s punch resistance starts to go, then it doesn’t usually come back. Years of making middleweight may well have taken its toll and he should probably be back up at super middleweight now, whereas Smith looked great for the move up to 160lb and it could be what he needed after 15 years at light middleweight.
With the painful night in January still fresh in the memory, I don’t think Eubank will be as keen to trade early doors this weekend and, instead, will look to keep Smith on the end of his sharp jab for as long as he can. However, both men love a tear-up and this will catch fire at some point, even if a little later than last time. Another Smith stoppage is a clear favourite at 13/8 in the method of victory market and the same outcome for Eubank is 9/2, which tells you how the bookies see this one going, and I am in full agreement.
Smith was always considered the better boxer, but many couldn’t see him hurting the bigger Eubank, who was also deemed by most to be much the fresher out of the pair. With the latter’s chin cracked and Smith clearly ageing better on recent evidence, it is hard to go against Smith, who will once again have the vociferous support of the packed arena in the North West.
My belief that this will go longer makes me bypass the tempting 6/1 for the favourite to repeat the dose of a victory in the first half, and backing Smith by decision may be putting too much faith in Eubank’s durability after last time, so Smith to win in rounds 7-12 looks the value call at 10/3. While it may not be as shocking a finish on Saturday, the relentless pressure can overwhelm a tiring Eubank down the stretch and seal a famous double for the home crowd to celebrate.
Smith v Eubank Jr: How to watch Saturday's big fight
- Time and date: Ring walks at around 2200 BST on Saturday September 2
- Venue: Manchester Arena, England
- Where to watch: Sky Box Office
- How to listen: talkSPORT have live radio coverage in the UK
Smith v Eubank Jr undercard
- Liam Smith vs Chris Eubank Jr 2
- Frazer Clarke vs David Allen
- Lauren Price vs Lolita Muzeya
- Mikaela Mayer vs Silvia Bortot
- Adam Azim vs Aram Faniian
- Mark Heffron vs Jack Cullen
- Frankie Stringer vs Engel Gomez
- Florian Marku vs Dylan Moran
Posted at 1050 BST on 01/09/23
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Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.