Will Dean returns to preview UFC Vegas 49, where Misha Cirkunov is a strong fancy to beat Wellington Turman.
MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 49
3pts Misha Cirkunov to beat Wellington Turman at 5/6 (General)
2pts Ji Yeon Kim to beat Priscila Cachoeira by Decision at 6/4 (Betway)
1pt Ramiz Brahimaj to beat Micheal Gillmore by Submission in Round 1 at 12/5 (Paddy Power)
Turmoil for Turman
Wellington Turman’s UFC career has been severely underwhelming so far – losing three of his five bouts and suffering an early knockout in two of them. The 25-year-old may have emerged victorious from his most recent fight, but this was against none other than Sam Alvey – an aging veteran without a win in his last eight appearances. The fight itself was closely contested, with one judge even declaring Alvey the winner on her scorecard.
That lacklustre performance was not the first time Turman has struggled to capitalise on a favourable matchup. In his UFC debut, he faced a notoriously deficient grappler in Karl Roberson and found himself being outworked on the mat by a life-long kickboxer. A year later he was favoured to beat a one-dimensional wrestler in Andrew Sanchez, before being confidently outstruck and knocked out inside the first round.
MISHA CIRKUNOV has had some disappointing results of his own in recent years, but these have been mostly fuelled by durability issues against Light Heavyweight opponents. The Latvian has always been respected as a skilful, well-rounded competitor, but that counts for little if his opponent can secure a knockout victory with relative ease.
Moving down in weight is a smart move for Cirkunov, who will be far less concerned with the stopping power of Turman’s strikes. The Brazilian has only won by knockout on four occasions and will struggle with the size and strength of an opponent that used to fight in a division 20lbs heavier.
With the prospect of a knockout victory for Turman seeming unlikely, I struggle to see why Cirkunov is not a much bigger favourite in this fight. The Latvian is the superior fighter in all aspects of MMA except durability and should be great value if he can stay conscious. CIRKUNOV TO WIN at 5/6 is the best value bet on the UFC Vegas 49 main card.
Another Horror Show for Zombie Girl
Priscila ‘Zombie Girl’ Cachoeira may have the most appropriate nickname on the UFC roster. The Brazilian has absorbed almost seven significant strikes per minute in her six trips to the Octagon so far (landing approximately half in return), indicating that she is happy to slowly march forward and consistently take punches in search for the knockout blow.
Cachoeira has had success with this approach in two of her last three bouts, but any opponent with cardio, durability and good footwork should confidently outstrike her. JI YEON KIM has all three of these attributes, landing over 120 significant strikes in her most recent outing and never being knocked down or knocked out in her career.
Neither woman has shown any real desire to grapple in their careers, so this fight seems quite binary in its outcome – either Cachoeira finds another knockout victory or loses comfortably on the scorecards. Given Kim’s defensive capabilities, I am inclined to side with the latter. Backing KIM TO WIN BY DECISION at any plus number feels like the right move, so taking the available 6/4 is more than appealing.
Brahimaj to Bounce Back
RAMIZ BRAHIMAJ steps in on short notice for Saturday night’s fight with Micheal Gillmore, hoping to recover from a disappointing performance to kickstart the year in January. Regular readers may remember a winning tip on Court McGee to defeat Brahimaj on the scorecards that night, but the latter’s performance still managed to fall short of expectations.
Given the quick turnaround for the Fortis MMA grappler, it is unlikely we see much evolution compared to last time. Brahimaj has always been a buzzsaw in the opening round, aggressively pursuing takedowns and advancing position as he looks for a quick submission victory. While this is a reckless approach that he is unlikely to profit from in the long term, it is exactly what he needs to do in this fight.
Gillmore’s route to the UFC has been paved by good fortune and circumstance, opposed to an impressive record and raw talent. For the third time in a row, The Gentleman faces a stylistic nightmare in the cage, with Brahimaj potentially having a tailor-made style to defeat him. Gillmore wilts against fighters who will put him under pressure, and he has clearly struggled to defend submission attempts throughout his career (with four of his five losses coming by tap out).
Brahimaj is clearly a talented fighter for as long as his cardio will allow, so the smash and grab approach will be perfect for him here. Eight of his nine victories have come by first round submission, so expecting him to win in any other manner would be dangerous.
This seems like a great opportunity for Brahimaj to bounce back after a poor showing in January and backing him TO WIN BY SUBMISSION IN ROUND 1 is the right move to make at 12/5.
Posted at 1100 GMT on 24/02/22
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