Chris Oliver has been among the winners of late and bids to sign off a profitable September with two bets, including Canelo to earn another points win.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday September 30
3pts Saul Alvarez to win by decision at 5/6 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Betfred)
1pt Jai Opetaia to win in rounds 7-12 at 12/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
It’s a busy weekend on both sides of the Atlantic, but all the eyeballs will undoubtedly be on Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez and Jermell Charlo’s history-making clash in Las Vegas in the early hours of Sunday morning.
It is the first time that two undisputed male champions have fought each other in the four-belt era, with Canelo defending his quartet of super middleweight titles against light middleweight ruler Charlo, and all the action is live on DAZN.
The latter has everything to gain and nothing to lose as he steps up two weight divisions for the biggest fight of his life, which is why he is as big as 7/2 to upset the Mexican superstar, who is in very familiar territory as the warm 3/10 favourite. Those prices look fair enough when looking at the stats and formbook, but there is much more to this contest than that and it could be a lot more competitive than the odds suggest.
The pay-per-view king of boxing for some time now, Canelo’s star-studded list of victims on a brilliant CV (59-2-2) is extremely impressive. He has jumped around the divisions to become a four-weight world champion with a string of dazzling victories, but it is at this 168lb limit where he arguably did his best work when he became the undisputed champion by rattling off four super brilliant victories in just 11 months up to November 2021.
During that period, he took the belts and undefeated records of Callum Smith (UD), Billie Joe Saunders (RTD8) and Caleb Plant (TKO11), as well squeezing in a quick mandatory defence against Avni Yildrim, but there have been signs since that his crown may be slipping.
There was no shame in his unanimous decision defeat to the excellent Dimitry Bivol when stepping back up to light heavyweight in May last year, but it has been far from vintage Canelo in his subsequent points victories over old rival Gennady Golovkin and John Ryder. ‘GGG’ was 40 years old and clearly a shadow of his former self, yet Canelo faded badly down the stretch after dominating the first half, while Ryder was a huge underdog in Mexico five months ago but was able to hear the final bell despite being dropped heavily in the fifth round.
Having turned professional as a 15-year-old, it’s no surprise that Canelo is showing signs of decline at 33, after 63 contests and over 10 years of dining at the top table. There is no doubt he is slowing down and easier to hit now, but is Charlo capable of taking advantage of that?
The American is the same age as Canelo at 33 and is a 37-fight veteran himself, but he is the fresher of the two and an elite fighter in his own right. The light middleweight division has been a hot one in recent years and Charlo deserves full credit for coming out of the merry-go-round at 154lb with all four belts. He earned the title of undisputed with a brilliant victory over Brian Castano last time out, as he banished the memory of their draw first time around with a brilliant performance to stop the Argentinian in 10 rounds in the rematch.
Charlo is a top-class fighter and his prime, things that could not be said of Golovkin and Ryder when they faced Canelo in the last 12 months, and the underdog also has the attributes to cause the favourite problems. Like Bivol, Charlo has very good feet and a smart jab, so has the tools to follow the blueprint set by the Russian of controlling the range with his lead left hand and constantly turning the flatter-footed Canelo.
However, whereas it’s Canelo who stepped up in weight to face Bivol, Charlo is the man moving up here, and by quite a considerable amount. He may be the taller man by four inches, but the light middleweight champion must carry a lot more weight for the first time and it is an unknown how that will affect him, while Canelo has been a fully-fledged super middleweight for a long time now.
Another thing that is new to Charlo is fighting on a stage as big as this one. Yes, he has been a headliner for several years but the level of attention of a Canelo fight week will be on a whole different level to what he is used to, whereas it is just another day at the office for the Mexican idol.
One more possible negative for Charlo is his inactivity, as it is now 17 months since he beat Castano and he would have ideally liked a tune-up before this, the biggest test of his career.
I expect Charlo to use his quicker feet and every inch of the ring from the get-go, looking to keep Canelo on the end of his jab and staying out of range. The latter isn’t the best of starters either, so early success and a lead on the scorecards is very possible for the American.
However, how long he can keep that up for may well decide this contest. If Charlo can stay disciplined, not hold his feet for too long and provide a moving target for 12 rounds, then we could have a minor upset on our hands. It’s hard to see him hurting the granite-chinned Canelo, so a Charlo victory would most likely come via the scorecards and it is a tasty 6/1 for the underdog to win by decision.
The two main worries for Charlo backers are his ability to maintain those stick-and-move tactics with the extra weight on him for the first time, as well as his tendency to enjoy a tear-up. At some point, he will either slow down or succumb to his fighting instincts in an attempt to earn the respect of Canelo, who will be in his element if either, or both, of those things happen. Once up close, the favourite will be unleashing his heavy hooks and, as the stronger man, he is fancied to come out on top in any exchanges at close quarters.
There is also the history of judges favouring Canelo to consider, especially ones in Las Vegas where he generates so much money, and that adds further weight to the feeling that a CANELO DECISION VICTORY looks the most likely outcome.
While I believe Charlo will make this very competitive and do much better than his odds may indicate, Canelo’s advantages in weight, experience and popularity with the judges are enough for me to resist the temptation of siding with the potential value of the underdog. It may be short enough for some at 5/6, but Canelo to record the 60th win of his career looks the safest bet and he can do so via the scorecards.
Opetaia to make his class count
There are two televised UK shows to choose between on Saturday night and, with Caroline Dubois expected to beat Magali Rodriguez with the ease her odds of 1/14 suggest on Sky Sports, I am much more interested in the top of the bill on DAZN’s card from the Wembley Arena.
Jai Opetaia defending his IBF belt against Britain’s Jordan Thompson isn’t a fight anyone saw coming, but the local man has an unlikely shot at world honours, and it should be entertaining while it lasts.
Opetaia (22-0) wasn’t that well known outside of his native Australia prior to an unlikely title shot of his own against Mairis Briedis last summer, but he shocked the then cruiserweight number one with a unanimous decision victory and makes his British debut as a professional after signing with Matchroom.
Thompson has ticked along nicely enough in compiling a 15-0 (12 early) record but has yet to fight anyone near world class and this is a big step up for him, hence his odds of 5/1.
Take away Opetaia’s victory over Briedis and there may not be much to choose between the pair on paper, nor would the champion be a 1/5 shot, but that title-winning performance was an impressive one and it’s hard to look past the favourite as a result.
Opetaia also competed at the highest level as an amateur, including over here at the 2012 Olympics, while Thompson has very little amateur pedigree. Add into the mix the latter’s lack of experience against southpaws and the favourite should prove too strong.
It may be competitive early on, but Opetaia is expected to come on strong from the middle rounds and he can wear down Thompson to get the stoppage between ROUNDS 7-12, which is a standout 12/5 with Coral and Ladbrokes.
Posted at 1245 BST on 29/09/23
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