Chris Oliver's headline selection landed last week and he's spying some value at a big price as Josh Buatsi and Dan Azeez do battle.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday February 3
2pts Dan Azeez to win by decision at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Conor Benn to win in rounds 1-6 at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
Joshua Buatsi and DAN AZEEZ put their friendship aside when they clash at the Wembley Arena on Saturday night, live on Sky Sports.
The South London light heavyweights have been sparring partners for several years and they mix in the same social circles, but that will count for nothing as they put their unbeaten records on the line in this fascinating contest.
Azeez pulled out with a back injury just a few days before their original date in October, sparking a war of words regarding the motives for the postponement, and the build-up has had a little more spice this time around.
The two men have taken very different journeys to this mouthwatering British and Commonwealth title bout, with Buatsi turning professional to all the fanfare after picking up a bronze medal in the 2016 Olympics and he was tipped for big things from the off.
While his 17-0 (13 early) doesn’t read too badly, it has been a frustrating and stop-start career in the paid ranks so far. His Olympic teammates Lawrence Okolie and Joe Cordina won world titles some time ago, but Buatsi has only recently stepped up to fringe world level and has failed to sparkle in his last three fights.
His close, but unanimous, decision victory over local rival Craig Richards on his last outing under the Matchroom promotional banner in May 2022 left as many questions as it did answers about Buatsi, who looked quick and powerful at times but only fought in spurts and concerns over his gas tank remain.
In his first fight since signing with Boxxer, the Croydon resident was lacklustre in his 10-round points victory over big underdog Pawel Stepien in May last year and he is yet to deliver on his undoubted potential.
That fact that Buatsi won the British title in March 2019 and is now fighting for it again almost five years later tells its own story about how he has failed to progress as expected.
Conversely, there was little expectation on Azeez’s shoulders when he made his debut in December 2017, but he has improved with each fight and has collected some notable titles in a fine run over the last few years.
After collecting the British strap with a seventh-round demolition of Hosea Burton in November 20221, Azeez notched good wins over Reece Cartwright (TKO8) and Shakan Pitters (UD) before adding the Commonwealth belt to his collection by stopping former world title holder Rocky Fielding inside eight rounds. The Lewisham man then went to France to collect the EBU strap with a 12-round victory over Thomas Faure and now gets a huge opportunity to make a name for himself.
Azeez is a 100/30 underdog to upset Buatsi, who is a top price of 2/7, but those odds seemed to be based on reputation, rather than recent performances. I am intrigued to see how Buatsi responds when forced into a real fight, which surely beckons this weekend, and we should finally get our answers regarding what the favourite is all about.
At his best, Buatsi is a heavy-handed sharpshooter who puts his punches together very well and works behind a fast, accurate jab. He looks great when he’s in full flow, but his tendency to regularly take his foot off the pedal allows his opponents to have their moments and has prevented him from really shining so far.
In Azeez, he faces someone with a high output and the relentless champion will make Buatsi work at a pace. The champion is constantly in forward motion and throws plenty of leather, gradually breaking his opponents down and outworking them.
That would well suit Buatsi, who is the better technical fighter and, as a fast starter, he could walk Azeez on to stiff counters early doors. With that in mind, the possibility of Buatsi opening a lead and boxing sensibly behind his excellent jab for a points victory (4/5) is a very real one.
However, Azeez is tough and won't be deterred easily, so things could get very interesting if Buatsi hasn't made a serious dent in him by the midway point. Azeez tends to get better as the fight goes on and he won't allow Buatsi to take his usual breathers.
As talented as Buatsi is, I think the price disparity is too wide here and Azeez is the value play in what I see as a 50-50 contest.
Buatsi has had just five fights in five years, and it seems an awful long time ago that everyone was so high on his prospects on the back of the 2016 Olympics. All the momentum is with Azeez, who started late but is improving at a rate of knots and has clearly benefited from being kept busy in competitive matches.
I agree with the odds of 4/9 that this goes the distance and, in what I see as being a closely-fought contest, the 13/2 about AZEEZ WINNING BY DECISION is too big for me to pass up.
Benn can overwhelm New Yorker
CONOR BENN is a heavy 1/10 favourite as he continues his comeback against Peter Dobson in Las Vegas, where the DAZN-televised main event is due to take place at around 10.30pm UK time to cater for British viewers.
Still without a British Boxing Board of Control licence following his positive drugs tests in late 2022, Benn is forced to fight in the US again after returning from his layoff with a points victory over Rodolfo Orozco in Orlando just over four months ago.
A hard 10 rounds against a bigger, durable opponent was the kind of workout Benn needed after 17 months on the sidelines, and he will be out to impress now the ring rust has been shaken off.
Dobson is also unbeaten, but his 16 wins have come against mediocre opposition, and this is a big step for the 33-year-old from New York.
If Benn wants the big fights he says he does, he needs to stop Dobson and he is just 4/9 to do so. The favourite’s aggressive tactics could all be too much for American and I can see Benn getting his man out of there in the FIRST SIX ROUNDS.
Posted at 1220 GMT on 02/02/24
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