Chris Oliver landed two winners from two in his latest preview. Our boxing expert has another pair of tips for Saturday's action on both sides of the Atlantic.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday May 6
1pt Canelo to win by unanimous decision at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
2pts Joshua Buatsi to win in rounds 1-6 at 11/8 (bet365)
John Ryder is the latest British fighter to try and crack the Canelo code in the early hours of Sunday morning, live on DAZN.
SAUL 'CANELO' ALVAREZ is 7-0 against Brits in his brilliant career to date and Ryder’s already huge task to halt the whitewash is made even tougher by having to go to Mexico for this. It is 12 years since Canelo fought in his home country and his ascendency to becoming boxing’s biggest star since then means the 55,000 sell-out crowd at the Estadio Akron Stadium in Zapopan will be at fever pitch for the homecoming.
Just getting this fight is an achievement for Ryder, as the Islington man’s future in the sport looked bleak following defeats at middleweight against Nick Blackwell (TKO7) and Jack Arnfield (UD) in 2015 and 2016 respectively.
However, he has proved a different fighter since stepping up to super middleweight and has won eight of his last nine outings, with his sole defeat coming to Callum Smith when challenging for the WBA title in 2019. That decision could have gone either way, much like his contest with former two-time middleweight champion Danny Jacobs in February last year but, on that occasion, it was Ryder who got the rub of the green.
‘The Gorilla’ inflicted a first defeat on Zach Parker, who was forced to quit with an injury after four rounds in November just as Ryder was starting to have plenty of success, and that win set him up for the kind of fight he has been craving all his career. The visitor is a huge underdog at 9/1, though, and it may be a case of ‘be careful what you wish for’ for Ryder.
Canelo needs no introduction, with a star-studded list of victims on a CV (58-2-2) as impressive as anyone's in the sport right now. He has jumped around the divisions to become a four-weight world champion with a string of dazzling and brutal victories, but it is at this 168lb limit where he arguably did his best work when became the undisputed champion by rattling off four super impressive victories in less than a year up to November 2021.
Their respective outcomes against four common opponents don’t do anything for the case of Ryder, either. The aforementioned Jacobs was outpointed by Canelo, likewise Smith, while Rocky Fielding and Billy Joe Saunders have decision wins over Ryder but failed to hear the final bell against the Mexican.
Also, it was the latter victory over Saunders that busted the myth that southpaws were Canelo’s kryptonite, having failed to shine in points wins over Austin Trout and Erislandy Lara earlier in his career. Besides, the latter are sharp-shooting slicksters, which Ryder certainly is not.
Nor does Ryder have the dimensions or style to replicate the blueprint that Dimitry Bivol set when inflicting a second career defeat on Canelo a year ago. The Mexican superstar deserved plenty of credit for stepping back up to light heavyweight in an attempt to conquer yet another division, but he was dominated over 12 rounds by the technically superb Russian. Bivol controlled the distance brilliantly with his excellent footwork, used his long levers to keep his jab constantly in Canelo's face, and made him work at a pace he didn't want to.
A compact southpaw with decent feet, Ryder looks to use his short, stocky frame to his advantage against taller opponents by getting inside and unleashing his heavy hooks. He also takes a shot well up at this weight and is prepared to take one or two on the way in for a chance to land his own. In fact, he is very similar to his opponent when comparing this pair’s frame and style, but unfortunately for Ryder, Canelo is just a better version of himself.
Ryder can at least gain some confidence from Canelo showing signs of being on the decline slightly when he dropped back to super middleweight to complete his trilogy with Gennady Golovkin in September.
With a clearly faded 40-year-old in front of him, Canelo coasted through the 12 rounds and, despite the low output of both men, he tired in the final third. That was the second fight in a row, following the Bivol defeat, that the Mexican idol showed stamina concerns and it is perfectly reasonable to expect a 32-year-old to be past his best now, 62 fights into a 17-year career.
The problem for Ryder is that he is known to be economical with his output as well and he doesn’t set the kind of pace that should trouble the favourite.
Is Canelo far enough down the other side of the mountain for Ryder to pull off what would undoubtedly be one of the greatest victories for a British fighter on foreign soil? The answer must be ‘no’ from me, but he may have slipped enough to allow Ryder to go deeper into the fight than many expect.
Traditionally a slow starter who usually comes into his own late on, it’s easy to see why Canelo to win in the second half is only 5/4. That is probably the most likely outcome, especially if Ryder chooses to go out on his shield and throw caution to the wind when trailing on the cards.
However, with the signs that Canelo is slowing down and the feeling that Ryder may look to get a ‘victory’ of his own by seeing out the 12 rounds once he realises he probably can’t win, then the 4/1 about a decision victory for the local favourite becomes tempting.
You can bump that up to 5/1 with Sky Bet’s offer about Canelo winning a UNANIMOUS DECISION and that is big enough for me to take a chance on, especially with doubts over Canelo’s left hand following surgery in October.
The formbook tells you that Ryder going the distance is unlikely, but the eye test suggests it could be a bit of value. Ryder, who has looked much sturdier at super middleweight and is in the form of his life, could just hang on to the end against a champion who appears to be finally showing the signs of a long career now.
Buatsi to blast out of the blocks
Saturday night’s show on Sky Sports sees JOSHUA BUATSI bidding to kick some much-needed life into his career against Pawel Stepien.
This is Buatsi’s first fight for promotional outfit Boxxer after he left Matchroom claiming they – and streaming platform DAZN – were holding him back. His former promoter Eddie Hearn claims the opposite – that it was Buatsi’s inactivity and failure to sparkle in the ring that caused the hype train to come to a halt.
The blame game stops now, and it is up to Buatsi to remind us all why he was such hot property following his Olympic bronze medal in 2016.
On paper, his 16-0 record (13 early) doesn’t read too badly, but it has been a stop-start and frustrating journey. His Rio teammates Lawrence Okolie and Joe Cordina won world titles some time ago, but Buatsi has only stepped up to fringe world level in his last two fights and failed to shine on those occasions.
He laboured against trial horse Ricards Bolotniks before ending it in the 11th, while his hard-fought points win over domestic rival Craig Richards a year ago left more questions than answers. Looking explosive and powerful at times in the latter contest, he only fought in spurts and concerns remain over his gas tank.
However, 9/1 chance Stepien hasn’t been brought in to test Buatsi, he has been chosen for the home fighter to look good against. Stepien is unbeaten in 19 outings (one draw) with 12 knockouts but has only faced very mediocre opposition and has yet to box outside of his native Poland.
Buatsi will be desperate to make a statement and his odds of 1/16 suggest this is the ideal opportunity to do so. Getting rid of Stepien in the first half is the result he is looking for, and bet365 stand out at 11/8 for that outcome.
Buatsi certainly has the power to justify those odds on his day and with the man from Croydon motivated by the need to shine on his new stage, he is fancied to get the job done in ROUNDS 1-6.
Posted at 1130 BST on 05/05/23
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