Boxing expert Chris Oliver produced profit from his first preview of the year, and now looks ahead to what should be a tear-up between Artur Beterbiev and Anthony Yarde.
Boxing betting tips: Beterbiev v Yarde
3pts Artur Beterbiev to win in rounds 1-6 13/10 (bet365)
1pt Anthony Yarde to be knocked down 3+ times 7/1 (Sky Bet)
British boxing’s big start to the year continues with a mouth-watering contest at London’s Wembley Arena.
Following the drama of Liam Smith’s stunning stoppage win against Chris Eubank Jr last week, get ready for more fireworks on Saturday as ARTUR BETERBIEV defends his world light heavyweight titles against Britain’s Anthony Yarde. The two exciting knockout merchants go head-to-head on BT Sport, and it should be all action – while it lasts.
It is Yarde’s second crack at world honours after being stopped by Sergey Kovalev in Russia in the summer of 2019. The good news for the Londoner is that he gets it on home soil this time; the bad news is that Beterbiev is the man in the opposite corner. Yarde’s odds of 6/1 tell you what a mammoth task this is, and it would be right up there with the biggest upsets from a British fighter in a world title fight if he topples Beterbiev, who is a heavy 1/7 favourite.
Getting Beterbiev over to the UK is a real coup as he is one of the best and most ferocious fighters on the planet.
Following a stellar amateur career, which saw him pick up gold medals at the World and European (twice) championships, he has left a trail of destruction behind him in the paid ranks and currently holds three of the four recognised belts at 175lb. With the looks of a James Bond villain, the Canadian-based Russian is equally as menacing and is the only current world champion with a 100% knockout ratio, having won all 18 of his professional fights by stoppage.
He has freakish power in both hands and throws his shots with real bad intentions, but he is much more than just a heavy-handed banger. His skills are top-drawer, and he boasts a fine ring IQ, along with a very effective ramrod jab.
His versatility is highlighted by his two best wins to date. He boxed patiently to break down and stop the previously unbeaten Oleksandr Gvozdyk in 10 rounds to claim the WBC title in October 2019, then he was at his brutal best when dropping Joe Smith Jr four times on his way to a second-round victory as he picked up the WBO strap when last seen in June.
Yarde is saying all the right things ahead of the biggest fight of his career and is a more seasoned fighter now than when he tasted defeat for the first time against Kovalev. Having stopped all barring one of his 18 victims prior to that title tilt, Yarde came close halting the champion in the eighth round but punched himself out and was stopped three rounds later.
He suffered a second loss when narrowly outpointed by Lyndon Arthur in December 2020 but learned the lessons of being too hesitant that night when he avenged that defeat with an impressive fourth-round knockout 12 months later.
It seems that a more aggressive approach is his best chance here, as it’s highly unlikely he will be able to outbox Beterbiev, given the way Yarde struggled at range against Arthur first time around. By taking the fight to the champion and making it a gun show, Yarde at least has the hope of landing something big and he has the power to do damage to anyone if he lands clean.
That is exactly what fellow Brit Callum Johnson did when he dropped Beterbiev in the second round of their war in 2018. However, that only made the champion step up his attacks and a bloodied Johnson was stopped in the fourth.
With that in mind, Yarde can take some encouragement from knowing Beterbiev can be dropped, and by the fact he is now 38 years old. However, the favourite has shown no signs of age catching up with him and his last performance was arguably his best to date.
Claims that Yarde is younger and fresher can be countered by his lack of his experience and the quality of his opposition, which has generally been poor. His only foray into world-class company was against Kovalev and that didn’t end well, despite the latter being past his peak at the time. Conversely, Beterbiev has been dining at the top table for a long time, both as an amateur and as a professional, and devouring what’s in front of him with relative ease.
It is hard to make a compelling case for Yarde on all known evidence and it appears to be how, not if, Beterbiev will win, which is often decided by the approach of his opponents. The likes of Adam Deines (TKO 10) and Marcus Brown (TKO 9) tried to utilise movement and stay out of harm’s way, but the champion eventually caught up with them and put them out of their misery, while Johnson and Smith Jr met Beterbiev head on and were dispatched much sooner.
Yarde will do very well to hear the final bell, which is reflected in the 5/1 about this going the distance and 20/1 for the home fighter to win by decision. Beterbiev to win by the same method is 7/1, but the visitor by stoppage is 2/7 and that is the only logical conclusion on what we have seen so far.
If the challenger chooses to box and work his way into the fight, then the 11/4 available for Beterbiev to win in rounds 7-12 would be great value, but I believe Yarde will look to use his fast hands to land his owns bombs from the get-go and that could lead to an early night.
Beterbiev has excellent feet and cuts off the ring very well, applying mental and physical pressure which draws mistakes from his opponents. Couple that with Yarde’s tendency to square up when he commits and it could result in painful night for the younger man. Beterbiev to claim victory in the FIRST HALF OF THE FIGHT is no fancy price at 13/10 but it looks most likely outcome and rates a very solid bet.
Those looking for an interest at a bigger price should consider YARDE TO BE DROPPED THREE OR MORE TIMES at 7/1 in Sky Bet’s specials market, as the challenger is game and won’t be beaten without a fight.
Posted at 0945 GMT on 27/01/23
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