Andy Schooler landed a 6/4 winner at the Rome Masters in round three. Here’s his look at the last-16 matches, which all take place on Tuesday.
Tennis betting tips: Rome Masters round four
0.5pt Karen Khachanov to beat Dino Prizmic at 13/8 (bet365)
0.5pt Nikoloz Basilashvili to win a set v Andrey Rublev at 21/20 (betway)
Karen Khachanov v Dino Prizmic (1000 BST)
All eight of the fourth-round matches take place on Tuesday but, frankly, there’s nothing I’m massively keen on.
That’s not to say I haven’t got views on several of them, although it certainly looks a day to keep stakes small.
One price which catches the eye is the 13/8 about Khachanov here.
Of course, Prizmic is on a streak and his wins over Novak Djokovic and Ugo Humbert in the past two rounds have made the layers sit up and take notice.
To be fair, his recent form is longer term than just his efforts in Rome – he’s been winning plenty on the Challenger Tour.
His serve has been a big part of his success and Prizmic comes into this one having gone unbroken in seven of his last 14 matches at all levels.
However, Khachanov is an experienced campaigner with a decent serve of his own – he won 75% of first-serve points and an impressive 65% of second-serve ones during his victory over Botic van de Zandschulp on Sunday.
He’s a former French Open quarter-finalist and I’m not sure he’s going to be overawed by a player ranked outside the tip 100, no matter how well he’s played in the past few days.
Another factor that makes the price simply too big is the weather forecast.
There could be morning drizzle in Rome which will dampen, literally, the effect of the Prizmic serve. It’s also due to get breezy with some relatively strong gusts – certainly more than in previous days. That’s another way the 20-year-old could have his game disrupted.
As suggested at the start, I’m not hugely confident but, to me, this price looks too large and Khachanov is worth considering.
Andrey Rublev v Nikoloz Basilashvili (1500 BST approx)
Despite what I’ve just written above, I do believe that sticking with players in the groove can be a good tactic at these Masters 1000 events.
For example, I remember profiting from backing Jack Draper on several occasions during his surprise title run in Indian Wells last season. Sometimes it takes the bookies a little too long to cotton on.
This could be an example with Basilashvili out at 14/5 to spring the upset against a player who is hardly Mr Reliable.
‘Basil’ landed us a nice 6/4 winner when he took down Brandon Nakashima (in straight sets) on Monday and I mentioned in that preview how he’s long been a streaky player, capable of suddenly finding his groove and sticking in it.
Having also beaten Ben Shelton in Rome, the Georgian’s confidence is clearly going to be sky high right now.
Admittedly, this should be a tougher test with Rublev’s all-round game better than his previous foes, who like to rely on their serves.
However, Rublev has hardly been pulling up trees this season and despite his two straight-sets wins so far at this event, I can see his confidence being fragile still following early losses in Monte Carlo and Madrid and I do wonder what would happen were Basilashvili to gain a foothold in this one.
Given both his form and his record against Rublev, he should be confident of doing so.
Rublev leads the head-to-head but only 4-3 and Basilashvili won their only meeting on a claycourt.
To be fair, most of those matches came some time ago. Basilashvili has fallen away in the past few seasons but he’s shown this week that the talent still remains and that means I’m tempted to side with him in some way here.
The game handicap was considered – 8/11 with a 4.5 start or 5/4 with a 3.5 lead – but I’m going to settle on a different market, namely Basilashvili to win a set.
That’s occurred in five of their six completed matches (one of Rublev’s wins came via an early retirement) and so a small play at odds-against is the call.
Posted at 21:45 BST on 11/05/26
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