Andy Schooler has 50/1 shot Casper Ruud into the Rome final. The problem is he’s now facing Jannik Sinner. Here’s Andy’s big-match preview…
Tennis betting tips: Rome Masters final
1pt under 20.5 total games at 4/5 (BoyleSports)
0.5pt under 8.5 games in the first set at 2/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, BetVictor)
0.5pt Sinner to win the first two games at 9/4 (Ladbrokes)
Jannik Sinner v Casper Ruud (1600 BST)
It was good to see Ruud cruise past a tired Luciano Darderi on Friday and thus land the place part of our outright each-way bet.
The 50/1 pick now has a chance to hit the jackpot, although probably not much of one.
As expected, the world’s best player, Sinner, has made it to the final from the other side of the draw and he’ll start this contest as a red-hot 1/6 favourite.
At least Sinner showed he is human in his semi-final when he lost his first set of the tournament to Daniil Medvedev on Friday.
That contest was pushed into Saturday by rain and while Sinner duly finished the job pretty quickly, having to come back was hardly ideal preparation for this final.
Sinner was jaded during some of the lengthy exchanges on Friday and, with plenty of tennis in his legs following his title wins in Monte Carlo and Madrid, opponent fatigue may be best Ruud’s chance of glory here.
That’s because the Norwegian brings an awful 0-4 head-to-head record to the court here, losing all of those matches in straight sets.
There have been some real drubbings too, their most recent clash coming here 12 months ago when Ruud won just a single game.
Whereas Medvedev had shown his ability to trouble Sinner, that’s not the case in this match-up.
Ruud’s defence simply isn’t up to the Medvedev standard. It’s hard to see him being able to come out on top often enough in lengthy rallies so I suspect he’ll be forced to go for it more with his main weapon – the forehand – but we all know that red-lining it increases the chances of errors.
I’ve mentioned Ruud’s serve this week, another shot which ahs been working well, but Sinner hasn’t been at all troubled by it in the past.
He’s won a remarkable 50% of games against the Ruud serve across those four previous meetings – and held 94% of the time himself.
Unless Sinner struggles physically, I don’t see how Ruud wins this and so it’s simply a case of finding angles on the Italian.
My main one is to back under 20.5 games at 4/5.
This has proved a winner in their last three meetings and hosed up in the last two.
For something bigger, I want to get with Sinner to make a fast start.
Under 8.5 games in the first set looks to have potential at 2/1.
Sinner won the opening set here 6-0 in 2025, while it was 6-1 in the meeting before that, at the ATP Finals in 2024.
It’s also been a consistent winning bet in the Italian’s recent matches, landing in nine of the last 10 across Rome and Madrid.
I also like the 9/4 on offer about Sinner winning the opening two games of the match.
That’s occurred in their last three matches, as well as five of their last six sets.
Ruud will be well aware of his poor record in this match-up and with Sinner having been so strong in return games across their series, this is surely overpriced.
Posted at 20:40 BST on 16/05/26
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