Madison Keys features in Andy Schooler's Wimbledon staking plan alongside two huge outsiders in the women's draw.
Wimbledon tips: Ladies' outright
1.5pt e.w. Madison Keys at 18/1 (betway)
0.5pt e.w. Jelena Ostapenko at 150/1 (BetMGM, VirginBet)
0.25pt e.w. Alja Tomljanovic at 400/1 (SportingIndex, SpreadEx)
Wimbledon – Ladies' Singles
- All England Club, Wimbledon, London, England
Serena Williams is back at Wimbledon – 10 years after the most recent of her seven titles at the All England Club.
You’ll be hearing plenty about the 44-year-old over the coming days but it will surely only be a footnote for this tournament. A sideshow, if you will.
A player who has legitimate claims to be called the Greatest Of All Time, Williams hasn’t played a singles match in almost four years and, in the interim, has given birth to her second daughter.
Two doubles matches aren't enough preparation for a title assault here, no matter how good a player she’s been in the past. Don’t be silly and go backing her at around 50/1.
Now that’s out of the way, let’s consider the more likely champions - and there are many.
Since Williams initially left the tour for the birth of her first child in 2017, no one player has truly dominated.
Iga Swiatek has led the way in that period in terms of Grand Slam titles, winning six, but four of them have come on the clay of Roland Garros. While she’s clearly left an enduring legacy on that surface, it’s not all-round greatness.
Naomi Osaka and Aryna Sabalenka come next with four but it’s now well over five years since the former won one. As for Sabalenka, she’s the favourite for this tournament but it’s a cool favouritism with her best price being 4/1.
To me, the draw has a very open feel to it. A look at Sky Bet’s market shows no fewer than eight players at 16/1 or shorter. That can’t happen too often at this level.
Can I see Sabalenka justifying her position? Well, yes, but I’m not convinced at the price – this is a player who has been world number one for more than 100 weeks in total now but also one who is yet to reach a Wimbledon final.
Perhaps more worrying than her course form is her recent form.
Sabalenka somehow managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory at the French Open when she led Diana Shnaider by a set and a double break, only to lose the last 10 games.
And when she took to the grass in Berlin recently, there was another 6-0 final set when she was defeated by Jessica Pegula.
Both results highlight a problem that plagued Sabalenka earlier in her career – an inability to find a way of stemming the tide when it is flowing against her. The Shnaider match was an error-strewn mess with Sabalenka barely able to keep the ball in court.
I can’t back her at 4/1 despite knowing her power game is capable of dismantling anyone when it’s firing.
Elena Rybakina, the 2022 winner, is next in the market.
One of the best servers in the women’s game, she won the Australian Open earlier this year, ending a long wait for a second Grand Slam title, but I have to admit I find it a little strange she can be 6/1 having won just one of her three grasscourt tune-ups. One of the losses came at the hands of Briton Katie Boulter.
The other concern I always have lurking somewhere when it comes to Rybakina is her physical fitness. She withdraws more than most players and always seems to have some sort of niggle.
Now is no exception – Rybakina withdrew from this week’s tournament in Bad Homburg with a hip issue. She’s easily swerved.
Defending champ Swiatek is back for more but she lost her only grasscourt prep match and hasn’t won a title since last autumn.
She proved me wrong last year by finally winning on grass – the surface had long been an issue for her but she worked hard on her footwork and added aggression to her game.
It should be remembered she was on a long title drought when winning here 12 months ago but this time she must handle that defending champion tag, one which has weighed heavily in the past decade – that woman Williams being the last to win back-to-back in 2015 and 2016.
I don’t think Swiatek is the worst price at 9/1 but she does have a tough draw so I’m still happy to look elsewhere.
Coco Gauff looks well drawn but she is another on a title drought that stretches back to last season, while the American has yet to go beyond the last 16 here.
Last year’s runner-up Amanda Anisimova hasn't been properly fit for a while and Jessica Pegula continues to prove a disappointment at the Slams.
Perhaps Mirra Andreeva can build on her maiden Grand Slam title at the recent French Open, although she also now has a slice of history to overcome – only one player in the last 25 years has followed up her first Slam by winning the very next major (Osaka, for the record).
Keys to glory
Instead, I’m going to try a mid-range bet on MADISON KEYS.
She’s enjoyed a strong warm-up on the grass, winning the Eastbourne title on Saturday having made the quarter-finals in Berlin.
All her victories came in straight sets – and they were some really dominant performances at Devonshire Park in recent days – while her only defeat came via two tie-breaks at the hands of eventual Berlin champ Pegula.
Yes, she’ll need to beat bigger names if she’s to triumph in SW19 but she does have a great track record of being able to do that – the American is 8-5 against top-10 players on grass.
I’ve backed Keys at the Slams on several occasions down the years but this time it’s a bit different as she’s now got a Grand Slam title under her belt, having won last year’s Australian Open.
With that added self-belief and good form behind her, Keys should be able to contend. Few hit the ball harder and she’s capable of the spectacular. Keeping the errors down is always a key for Keys. Sorry.
She’s landed in the fourth quarter, one containing Rybakina and Anisimova, who I’ve already picked holes in.
At 18/1, I’ll play her each way.
In my men’s singles preview, I discussed how thin on the ground shock winners have been at this tournament but that is not the case on the ladies’ side.
CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO READ THE WIMBLEDON MEN'S PREVIEW
In two of the past three years, a player at a triple-figure price has emerged triumphant – Marketa Vondrousova (now suspended for refusing a drugs test) in 2023 and Barbora Krejcikova in 2024.
Outsiders to follow
With this in mind, I’m going to shoot for the stars with a couple of small-stakes picks.
JELENA OSTAPENKO is a former semi-finalist, while one of her two other quarter-final appearances came as recently as two years ago.
She holds a similar profile to Keys – former Grand Slam champion who hits winners for fun.
The Latvian has beaten two top-10 players this season, reached the semis in Doha and quarters in Rome.
Last week it was the last four in Eastbourne but she was forced to withdraw due to illness at that stage, doubtless a worry for some reading this.
It’s certainly a concern but it sounds like it was likely heat-related – Ostapenko had struggled in the 30C-plus temperatures – while pre-Slam-week withdrawals are pretty common as precautionary measures.
Ostapenko could certainly be an awkward third-round foe for Sabalenka and is worth throwing some loose change at.
Finally, how about AJLA TOMLJANOVIC at 400/1?
She’s a player who really likes the grass and has twice reached the quarter-finals here. On each occasion, she lost to the eventual champion (Ash Barty in 2021 and Rybakina in 2022).
The Australian warmed up for this event with a run to the semi-finals in Den Bosch recently, while she also won three matches at Eastbourne, where she came through qualifying.
She is in a tricky section of the draw with Elina Svitolina and Donna Vekic potential early opponents but for those prepared to shoot for the stars in search of that ‘next Krejcikova’ you could do a lot worse.
Preview posted 1540 BST on 28/06/2026
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling.
Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.