After a profitable French Open, Andy Schooler previews the opening week of the ATP Tour’s grasscourt season, with events in Stuttgart and Den Bosch.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
1pt e.w. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the Boss Open at 20/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt e.w. Tallon Griekspoor in the Libema Open at 14/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt e.w. Marin Cilic in the Libema Open at 25/1 (BetMGM, StarSports, VirginBet)
Boss Open
- Stuttgart, Germany (outdoor grass)
The tour-level grasscourt season opens this week and of the two events taking place, Stuttgart tends to produce the faster conditions.
It’s no coincidence that this tournament has been consistently won by big servers in recent years – the last five champions have been Taylor Fritz, Jack Draper, Frances Tiafoe, Matteo Berrettini, and Marin Cilic.
Look for a player with that profile and there are several contenders, albeit most can found towards the head of the market.
The favourite is top seed Ben Shelton, who has had a decent enough season, winning titles in Dallas and Munich.
However, he’s never reached a grasscourt final previously, while I do wonder if confidence has been dented by some disappointing results in recent weeks, including a French Open humbling by Raphael Collignon.
While it’s not difficult to see him winning, I don’t think there’s much value in his price of 9/2.
I can say something similar about Taylor Fritz, the defending champion who enjoyed a fine grasscourt campaign last year, winning Eastbourne before reaching the semis at Wimbledon.
However, 12 months on and the body isn’t in such good shape. Knee tendinitis continues to be a problem for the American, who has played just two matches since Miami in March and lost them both.
Grass isn’t usually a surface which allows you get much rhythm and so I’m not sure being short on matchplay is a good sign for Fritz coming in here.
Alexander Bublik, who on grass in Halle in 2025, also warrants respect but were I going with one of those towards the head of the market, it would probably be Jiri Lehecka.
He made the final at Queen’s Club last season when his serve was locked in and we’ve seen already this year that when he finds that groove on serve, he’s very difficult to break. That was the case in Miami where he didn’t drop serve before the final.
The Czech didn’t have the greatest claycourt season but still made the quarter-finals in Madrid – a venue where the altitude quickens things up – while he’s got a bye in the first round this week which means he’ll only need to win four matches to claim the title.
However, I’m put off enough by the draw.
If the seedings play out, Lehecka is due to face both 2023 champion Tiafoe and Shelton before the final. He has a losing record against both men and, notably, each of them has beaten the Czech here in Stuttgart.
There’s every chance the winner comes from those four players I’ve just mentioned but I’m not seeing much value in the odds and, as they say, price is king.
Instead, I’m prepared to take a chance on a player who will surely put it altogether on this surface for a week at some point and that’s GIOVANNI MPETSHI PERRICARD.
The Frenchman has what is probably the biggest first serve in the game right now and he doesn’t exactly hold a lot back on his second deal. It’s a shot which should be a big weapon in slick Stuttgart.
We know Mpetshi Perricard’s return game is pretty poor but then John Isner had a big weakness on that front and he won four grasscourt titles in his career and made the Wimbledon semi-finals.
To reach the final, the 22-year-old will undoubtedly have to win a tie-break or two but his record in those is impressive this season – 12-5 which is a 71% success rate.
Mpetshi Perricard does face a tricky opener against Tommy Paul – I don’t deny he could fall early – but he did beat the American in Brisbane back in January, banging down 24 aces in the process.
Paul may still have his agonising French Open defeat to Casper Ruud playing on his mind – he lost from double match point up – and could be vulnerable.
Basically, if Mpetshi Perricard serves as he can, I think he’ll be hard to break and therefore hard to beat this week.
A price of 20/1 looks worth an each-way play.
Libema Open
- ‘s-Hertogenbosch, Netherlands (outdoor grass)
It tends to be slower and higher bouncing in Den Bosch or, to be specific, Rosmalen, which is what you will often hear the venue referred to.
That said, players you would consider typical grasscourters still appear in the final with regularity – the big-serving Gabriel Diallo won last year, for example.
This year’s field is headed by Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alex de Minaur.
I wouldn’t write either off but neither am I keen on backing them.
As I’ve highlighted before, eight of FAA’s nine career titles have come indoors. None has been won on grass.
He was playing in the Roland Garros quarter-finals as recently as Wednesday so this is a pretty quick turnaround for the Canadian. With this not being his natural surface, he may not have bedded in yet.
De Minaur has proved he can win here, doing so in 2024, but I always feel he can be vulnerable on grass where his excellent retrieval skills are blunted by the pace of the ball, especially when facing the power hitters.
Daniil Medvedev, whose only grass title came five years ago, fits into that bracket too.
The attack-minded Ugo Humbert warrants respect at a venue where he’s reached the semis in each of the last two years, while I wouldn’t be surprised to see his fellow Frenchman Adrian Mannarino put his clay woes behind him now he's on a more favourable surface.
However, the man I’m going to side with is TALLON GRIEKSPOOR.
The home hope won here three years ago and also returned to the semis in 2024. He knows how to win matches in Rosmalen.
Last season, he won the grasscourt title in Mallorca meaning two of his three career titles have come on this surface.
While some players may be coming here simply to bed in on the grass ahead of the bigger 500-level events next week, Griekspoor should be fully motivated on home soil. As well as winning here, we’ve also seen him go deep in Rotterdam in recent seasons.
He’s in the bottom half of the draw with De Minaur, the one I feel is the weaker of the two, and while he hasn’t been in great form of late, he will be happy to be off the clay. Indeed, the last time he played on a fairly quick surface was in Dubai when he reached the final.
His serve is a strong one – away from the clay he’s held 86% of the time this season – so I’m prepared to give him a go this week at 14/1.
For those seeking a bigger price, MARIN CILIC has the potential to hit the ground running on grass.
He opens against seed Denis Shapovalov and is in the same quarter as Medvedev.
Cilic made the semis here back in 2017, the same year he reached the Wimbledon final. He’s also won at Queen’s and Stuttgart in the past.
Yes, his best days are almost certainly behind him but experience on this surface is valuable given it is played on so infrequently and I would not dismiss the chances of the Croatian going back to a grasscourt final.
His best result this season was a run to the semis in Dallas, one of the fastest venues on the ATP Tour, so he’s worth consideration here at 25/1.
Posted at 18:00 BST on 07/06/26
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