After a small profit in round three, Andy Schooler picks out his best bets for Tuesday’s last-16 matches at the Mutua Madrid Open.
Tennis betting tips: Madrid Open round four
1pt Jiri Lehecka (+2.5) to beat Lorenzo Musetti on the game handicap at 10/11 (BetMGM)
Jiri Lehecka v Lorenzo Musetti
Musetti arrived in Madrid struggling for form, the early part of his season having been disrupted by injury.
Maybe he’s playing himself into shape with two straight-sets wins thus far – what more can you ask for? – but I’m not sure we’ve learned too much about the state of his game yet.
Hubert Hurkacz and Tallon Griekspoor are both poor returners in the grand scheme of things. Lehecka represents a bigger test on that front and his movement around the court should also be better.
The Czech’s serve, which worked so well during his run to the Miami final recently, remains in good order – he’s been broken only once in the two rounds so far – and the altitude conditions should work in his favour here.
He’s also 2-1 up on the head-to-head record, although Musetti did win the only match played on clay. However, that came down at sea level in Monte Carlo last season, when he was also in better shape and form.
Across those matches, Musetti has won only 63% of points behind his first serve which shows the potential for Lehecka to make some leeway on return.
While I’m a little reluctant to get further involved with Lehecka, who is my outright pick to win this quarter of the draw, I do feel he’s got some potential in the match markets.
I remain unconvinced at this moment in time that Musetti is really back at the levels he showed during the 2025 claycourt season and am happy to back Lehecka.
The way I’ll do so is via the game handicap, in which he gets a 2.5 start.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry v Arthur Fils
Fils has quietly been one of the stories of the season so far – could the French finally have a player ready to end their long wait for a men’s singles champion at Roland Garros?
Form suggests maybe so with Fils having just won the title in Barcelona and arriving here with an 18-5 win-loss record for the season.
He’s added two more victories since, although the 21-year-old hasn’t found conditions in Madrid quite to his liking.
Quicker than down in Barcelona, Fils has struggled through the opening couple of rounds here; certainly he’s not been as convincing as in many of his other performances this season.
Ignacio Buse was close to the upset in Fils’ opening match of the tournament, while Emilio Nava really should have won the first set of their meeting on Sunday.
On both occasions, Fils has struggled early on and a notable stat is that he’s now lost the opening set in five of his last nine matches.
Etcheverry has been playing well himself and I’m tempted to side with him in some way here.
The Argentine won in Rio, was a semi-finalist at his home event in Buenos Aires and, upon arriving in Europe, took a set off Carlos Alcaraz in Monte Carlo.
It’s probably worth little but he won the pair’s only previous meeting, which came on clay (it did take place in 2022 and was ultimately decided by Fils’ third-set retirement).
Given Fils’ early struggles in recent matches – and his inability, so far, to get truly to grips with the Madrid conditions – I think 2/1 about Etcheverry winning the first set could be a way to approach this.
The problem is the Argentine also has a poor record in opening sets, winning only two of his last 11, and, with that in mind, I’m reluctant to pull the trigger on this one.
Posted at 21:25 BST on 27/04/26
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