Andy Schooler previews the semi-finals of the BNP Paribas Open – will Jack Draper’s run continue at Indian Wells?
Tennis betting tips: Indian Wells semi-finals
1pt Jack Draper (+4.5) to beat Carlos Alcaraz on the game handicap at 8/11 (General)
0.5pt Draper to beat Alcaraz at 14/5 (General)
Holger Rune v Daniil Medvedev
I think Medvedev is a cracking example of why we as punters should always take note of ‘course form’.
The Russian has been runner-up at Indian Wells in each of the past two years and so a return to the Californian desert was arguably just what the doctor ordered to sort out his form.
It’s worked. Medvedev eased his way into the last eight and when he came up against a player in fine fettle on Thursday in Arthur Fils, he was able to raise his level to match his opponent and edged home.
The exuberant celebration at the end of that tight contest was notable. Very un-Medvedev, it showed exactly what a big win that was for him – he knew he’d played very well against a player also at the top of his game.
He explained afterwards how the much the success had boosted his confidence, highlighting a couple of narrow losses earlier in the year which may have sapped that key element from his game.
Next, Medvedev faces another player returning to something like his best form.
Rune has impressed in beating the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas en route to this stage and he took apart Tallon Griekspoor in sets two and three on Thursday, that match not unfolding as I expected with Rune able to break serve six times in total.
It wasn’t Griekspoor’s best day and I’d expect Medvedev to be a tougher nut to crack.
His defensive abilities were fully on show against Fils and that element may be able to ground down Rune, who trails the head-to-head 2-1.
He’s lost the last two in straight sets, including here 12 months ago when Medvedev triumphed 7-5 6-4.
The Russian won 62% of points on his own second serve that day – as well as 62% on Rune’s second serve. Good numbers.
Overall against Rune, he’s won 27% of return games played which is close to his career average against all opponents – that has to be a worry for the Dane.
I think Medvedev wins this, although I haven’t really got a standout bet to offer up.
He’s 8/13 for the win, a price I don’t normally tend to back.
5/6 is available about Medvedev giving up 2.5 games on the handicap which has potential – that’s landed in both of his two wins in the H2H series.
Jack Draper v Carlos Alcaraz
Draper has won followers of this column a few pennies over the past week and I’d say he’s playing some of the best tennis of his career right now.
The question here is whether it will be good enough to beat the two-time defending champion and current title favourite.
The bookies clearly don’t think so with Draper out at 14/5 to land the upset. That’s a tempting price.
Yes, Draper trails 3-1 across their previous meetings but two of those saw him retire mid-match, the most recent at last year’s US Open where he was clearly fatigued having played a number of long matches in the brutal New York conditions.
In the matches that have been completed, Draper has won on the grass of Queen’s Club and lost 7-5 in the third in Basel in 2022.
The Briton comes into this latest tussle having taken down Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton in impressive fashion.
He’s striking the ball great and serving well in the thin desert air.
Long-term readers will know I’ve fancied Draper’s chances of going a long way in the game for some time and this could be a pivotal moment – a win here and the days of getting him at 14/5 to beat anyone may be gone.
However, it is Alcaraz he’s up against and, like Draper, the Spaniard is yet to lose a set at this tournament.
Draper himself said after beating Shelton: "I think these courts bring out the best in him.
"He can show all his skills and look for his forehand.
"I think the conditions really suit him - but then again, he does well in most circumstances."
That said, Alcaraz wasn’t at his best in beating Francisco Cerundolo on Thursday night – he had to come back from 4-1 down in the second set to post his straight-sets victory.
"Tennis is about getting the win," Alcaraz correctly assessed. "It doesn't matter how you do it. You're not thinking about playing great tennis every match, every day. These kind of matches, you have to get through with the level that you have that day.”
He may need better against Draper though and I just feel I can’t let the opportunity of backing the Brit pass given the odds on offer.
Am I convinced he’s winning this match? Certainly not.
But I do think he’s more than capable of keeping it close and wouldn’t been hugely surprised were he to pull it off.
The bets I’ll therefore take are Draper (+4.5) on the game handicap, with a smaller play on him winning the match.
Posted at 1425 GMT on 14/03/25
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