Andy Schooler previews Friday’s third-round action at the US Open in New York.
Tennis betting tips: Daily best bets
1pt Jasmine Paolini to beat Marketa Vondrousova at 10/11 (General)
Looking at Friday’s eight matches in the men’s draw and there’s really nothing making appeal.
Perhaps it’s the fact I got Wednesday’s Fonseca v Machac match so badly wrong. Then again, perhaps it’s just the match-ups – there are plenty of heavy favourites, including Carlos Alcaraz, who will presumably take another step towards the inevitable final clash with Jannik Sinner when he faces Luciano Darderi.
Novak Djokovic has again looked far from dominant in his first two matches but taking him on here looks full of risk given he’s 6-0 up on Cameron Norrie and has dropped only two sets in that series.
I missed the boat with Jan-Lennard Struff the other day – he made my shortlist but was then rejected before he defeated seed Holger Rune. However, the nature of that win – five tough sets – makes the veteran of less appeal ahead of his meeting with Frances Tiafoe.
The one I considered most was Adrian Mannarino to keep things closer than the layers expect against Ben Shelton.
As mentioned in previous columns, the Frenchman is in great form this summer but one of his few defeats was a heavy one at the hands of Shelton in Toronto where the American was dominant on serve. All rather off-putting.
I’m therefore turning to the women’s draw, having a small bet, and hoping that Saturday brings a more appealing order of play...
Marketa Vondrousova v Jasmine Paolini
When Paolini is in the groove, she’s one tough cookie and that’s the case right now.
The Italian reached the final in Cincinnati in the lead-up to this tournament – Iga Swiatek denying her the title – and is once again showing she’s more than capable on the faster surfaces.
She’s continued her strong form with two straight-sets wins in New York.
The bookies make this a 50-50 match but I disagree.
Vondrousova will try to mix things up and drag Paolini around the court but I don’t think the former Wimbledon finalist will be unduly concerned by such tactics, with the Czech’s famous drop-shots less effective in these conditions.
Vondrousova has served 21 double faults across her first two matches and has subsequently won only 43% of her second-serve points.
Paolini’s return game should ensure she creates opportunities here and her form suggests she can take them.
Yes, Vondrousova did win the pair’s only previous meeting but given it was indoors in 2017, I’m questioning its relevance here.
I’m more concerned by the fact that on hardcourts against top-10 players, she’s lost her last six, five of them in straight sets.
Paolini is 9/4 to win 2-0 but I’ll settle for the 10/11 we’re getting about her simply winning the match.
Posted at 1735 BST on 28/08/25
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.