Andy Schooler previews Friday’s men’s US Open semi-finals, including the blockbuster between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz.
Tennis betting tips: Daily best bets
1pt Novak Djokovic to win the first set v Carlos Alcaraz at 19/10 (BetMGM, Virgin Bet)
1pt Jannik Sinner to lead 2-0 after two games v Felix Auger-Aliassime at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
Jannik Sinner v Felix Auger-Aliassime (not before 2359 BST)
While it’s possible to pick some holes in Alcaraz’s case to reach the final, I’m struggling to see how Sinner doesn’t make it to Sunday’s title match.
He did lose a set and wobbled slightly against Denis Shapovalov in round three but the response has been magnificent with Alexander Bublik and Lorenzo Musetti both blitzed – the pair won just 10 games between them.
It could be different for Auger-Alissime, I hear you cry.
Well, it could, but it wasn’t when they met in Cincinnati less than a month ago. On that occasion, FAA was beaten 6-0 6-2 and was utterly outclassed.
I suppose those who like the 16/1 being dangled about an upset will point to the fact FAA actually still leads the head-to-head 2-1 (his two wins came in 2022 when he was the higher-ranked player) and that he’s posted some very impressive results in the past week, beating Alex Zverev, Andrey Rublev and Alex de Minaur.
However, Wednesday’s victory over De Minaur was very scratchy – neither man played well – and a repeat of that error-strewn display here will doubtless see Sinner post another runaway win. Notably, Auger-Aliassime won just 32% of points behind his second serve in that one – Sinner could have a field day in that department.
At least the pressure is off here – no-one is realty expecting FAA to win – so in that sense he can go for broke and if the errors flow, so what?
Sinner has broken serve in 47% of return games so far in New York – way up on FAA’s 20% – which helps show how good he’s been.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him win at a canter again and the game handicap (7.5 is the line) is a potential route to profit.
However, that break stat pushes me in the direction of a tasty price which may be worth a play.
Sinner is 11/4 to win the opening two games of the match.
That’s something he did against both Bublik and Musetti, against whom he led 4-0 and 5-0 respectively with lightning-fast starts, while he obviously landed this bet when winning the opening six games when crushing FAA in Cincinnati.
I know it won’t be a bet for everyone – win or lose it will be over in 15 minutes – but I do feel it’s a decent price.
Novak Djokovic v Carlos Alcaraz (2000 BST)
Trying to oppose Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner in almost any way has proved a fruitless task at the US Open so far with the duo looking well on course to meet in a third successive Grand Slam final.
My view is that will still happen but Djokovic is a test like no other Alcaraz has faced over the past fortnight – and it’s one the Spaniard has failed quite often in the past.
The Serb leads the head-to-head 5-3, while it’s 3-0 on hardcourts and 2-0 on outdoor hard. Perhaps most significantly, he’s won four of the last five matches.
The most recent of those came at this year’s Australian Open where Djokovic delivered what must be considered his best performance of 2025.
His motivation levels here will be sky high. These are the matches he lives for, the reason he’s still playing tennis.
A 25th Grand Slam title, thus passing Margaret Court in the record books, is what he desires more than anything and while this is his fourth Grand Slam semi-final of the season, you do wonder how many more chances he’ll get at this stage given he’s now 38. He will be very much aware of that.
Of course, the issue here is that this match isn’t being played in the past and Alcaraz has been in blistering form in New York where he is yet to lose a set and has dropped his serve only once in five matches.
What I would say though is the level of opponents has been questionable. Of those faced, I’d suggest only Jiri Lehecka could have been given a realistic chance of landing an upset. As it was, he was brushed aside ruthlessly in the quarter-finals.
Djokovic’s game is a level (or more) up and Alcaraz knows the struggles he’s had against him before.
In Melbourne, the Serb had great success targeting the Alcaraz backhand, pinning him back.
On a more general level, Djokovic has had pretty consistent joy on the second serve of Alcaraz. The Spaniard won just 33% of points behind it in Melbourne and the same figure at the ATP Finals in 2023. Across the whole series, it’s up at a higher 47% but that’s still well down on Djokovic’s figure, with 55% representing a significant advantage.
And it’s been notable how well Djokovic has served in recent days – it’s a facet of his game in good working order.
For all that Djokovic backers could get burned by the red-hot Alcaraz, there’s enough to suggest this won’t all be plain sailing for the 2/7 favourite.
Both players to win a set at 4/6 will be backed by some but that’s not a mouthwatering price.
A better one is the 19/10 about Djokovic winning the first set.
I’m sure anyone considering the upset here will be concerned about the fatigue factor and a 38-year-old playing best-of-five tennis.
However, this angle takes that out of the equation.
It’s hard to see Djokovic winning this match from a set down so there will be a heavy focus on making a strong start.
I’ve already outlined the reasons to be optimistic about Djokovic being able to be competitive in this contest and they all still apply in this market.
Posted at 1735 BST on 04/09/25
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