The claycourt season continues in Barcelona and Munich this week – Andy Schooler includes a 50/1 shot in his outright preview.
Tennis betting tips: BMW Open & Barcelona Open
1pt win Luciano Darderi in the BMW Open at 14/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt e.w. Alejandro Tabilo in the BMW Open at 50/1 (General)
0.5pt e.w. Cameron Norrie in the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell at 50/1 (General)
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell
- Barcelona, Spain (outdoor clay)
Carlos Alcaraz left Monte Carlo on Sunday night somewhat bruised from his final defeat to Jannik Sinner.
We may well have a new favourite for the French Open, while we certainly have a new world number one.
Alcaraz immediately headed to Barcelona, an event he has always supported despite it coming in a run of three claycourt Masters events – Madrid and Rome are still to come before the players reach Paris.
Frankly, it’s the ideal chance for the Spaniard to rebuild confidence – there’s no Sinner here and Alcaraz has largely been head and shoulders above the rest of the ATP Tour for some time, especially on this surface.
However, unsurprisingly, the bookies are giving nothing away; Alcaraz is no bigger than 1/2 to win the title.
If you are someone who backs prices like that, fair play. Alcaraz won here in 2022 and 2023 and should do so again.
However, it’s not my job to be getting involved with bets like that and I would point out that Alcaraz lost in the final here 12 months ago (to Holger Rune) and I’d be surprised if the loss to Sinner doesn’t play on his mind for a while yet.
The obvious thing to do here from a betting perspective is to look for some each-way value on the opposite side of the draw.
That’s led by Lorenzo Musetti but, as a I wrote last week, he’s struggled of late and Monte Carlo brought no respite on that front with an opening-round loss to Valentin Vacherot.
Musetti remains winless since the Australian Open with only two matches played in that period due to an arm injury.
If he is able to get back in the groove, Musetti is more than capable of making the final here at 16/1 – and some bookies are still prepared to offer half the odds in their each-way terms, despite Alcaraz being odds-on.
However, I haven’t seen enough from the Italian of late to suggest he’s ready to win four matches in a field of this quality.
The layers appear to agree. They make Arthur Fils the favourite to come through this section.
I can see why. The Frenchman has impressed with a series of wins since his return to the tour in February – he’s made the Doha final and the Miami semis (as predicted on these pages) in that period.
However, he’s not played a claycourt match since last year’s French Open so it’s hard to know if he’s going to hit the ground running in the vastly different conditions to those he’s been playing in so far this season.
Had he been a double-figure price, I might have been interested but 6/1 is simply too short.
I’d much rather take a chance on a big price here and have opted to side with CAMERON NORRIE.
The British number one appears to be in a good part of the draw – the third quarter looks fairly weak to me.
It’s led by Karen Khachanov, the fourth seed, but he has a losing record (7-8) in 2026 and is yet to win three successive matches.
The bookies have rising star Rafael Jodar as the favourite to make the semis – he recently won his maiden ATP title in Marrakech and the teenager is now knocking on the door of the top 50.
He’s a talent, for sure, but his recent title success means the layers are all over his price now. Jodar is a best of 20s this week.
I prefer Norrie, who is available at 50/1.
The Scot has performed well in Barcelona in the past, reaching three quarter-finals, but that draw gives him a chance of progressing beyond that stage for the first time.
Veteran Stan Wawrinka is first up before a meeting with either qualifier Ethan Quinn or Reilly Opelka. Jodar or Khachanov could follow in the last eight.
For me, that’s a decent route into the latter stages for Norrie, who played pretty well in Monte Carlo, exiting at the hands of Alex de Minaur in a three-set battle.
Unlike many Britons, Norrie has always enjoyed the clay season – his big breakthrough came on this surface in Davis Cup when he stunned Roberto Bautista Agut in Spain back in 2018.
He’s since reached five ATP finals on this surface, winning two. He beat a certain Mr Alcaraz in one of those finals.
Last year, Norrie kickstarted his season after moving onto the clay. He was a semi-finalist in Geneva and then reached the fourth round at Roland Garros.
It’s not a hugely confident selection but I do believe Norrie is overpriced here at 50s and, subsequently, he is worth a small punt.
BMW Open
- Munich, Germany (outdoor clay)
The main decision for punters to make this week is whether or not to oppose top seed and title favourite Alex Zverev.
The German has always played his home event over the years and he’s won it on three occasions, including last season. However, he’s also played and failed to win eight times, with his overall win-loss record at the tournament being 20-8.
This year’s edition comes off the back of a tough week in Monte Carlo where Zverev made the semi-finals but played two lengthy matches to do so before suffering a chastening defeat to Jannik Sinner.
Notably, the last time Zverev made the semis in Monte Carlo, he lost his opening match here heavily.
He’s 11/5 for this year’s event and, as you’ve probably guessed, that’s not a price I’m massively keen on.
While Zverev is the class of the field, there are also four other members of the top 20 here and the seeds all come from the world’s top 32.
One of them, Francisco Cerundolo, is strong claycourter and a potential quarter-final foe.
However, it’s another player in the top half that I’m turning to and that’s LUCIANO DARDERI.
It was probably a mistake backing him in Monte Carlo so soon after his semi-final run in Marrakech given the change in altitude involved.
However, we’re back at a significant height above sea level this week – in the foothills of the Alps, Munich is around 500m up which is very similar to Marrakech.
The weather will be cooler – they’ve had snow flurries here before but that won’t be the case this year with temperatures forecast to be in the mid-teens, not dissimilar to Monte Carlo.
In short, conditions will be faster this week with the balls flying through the thinner air that bit quicker.
As well as his Marrakech run, Darderi has won an ATP title at altitude this season, doing so on the clay of Santiago, so he’s clearly shown a propensity for these conditions.
Last year he made the last eight here before losing to the big-serving Ben Shelton but there are no players with that sort of profile in his quarter this time around.
The Italian will open against Zhizhen Zhang, a player still working his way back after long-term injury, with Vit Kopriva or local wild card Justin Engel to follow.
Compatriot Flavio Cobolli is the higher-ranked seed in the section but his form has been poor since he won in Acapulco and he was well beaten by qualifier Alexander Blockx last week.
I think that’s a good draw for Darderi, although I can also see the viewpoint that he screams semi-final loser to Zverev.
That said, while he did lose their only previous meeting, that came two years ago and it was at least competitive, with Darderi taking the opening set to a tie-break.
At 14/1, I think he’s a decent alternative to the short-priced favourite.
The bottom section is led by last year’s runner-up, Shelton, but it also includes Joao Fonseca, who impressed in Monte Carlo last week before losing in the quarter-finals to Zverev.
At 9/1, I’m sure the Brazilian will have his backers this week but the altitude switch could be an issue, not to mention a tricky draw.
He opens against ALEJANDRO TABILO, who I feel could be worth siding with at a big outright price.
The Chilean is another proven altitude performer, while he’s also shown some good form in the early months of 2026.
Tabilo won up high in Chengdu towards the end of last season and while that was on hardcourts, he’s also gone well on the clay of Santiago in the past, reaching the final there two years ago.
Earlier this season, he returned to the quarter-finals of that event, while he’s also been to the semis in Rio on clay this year.
Notably, Tabilo and Fonseca have already met on this surface this season, in Buenos Aires, where the Chilean won in three sets.
Last week in Monte Carlo, Tabilo came within a tie-break of defeating world number 13 Jiri Lehecka, so he’s clearly still playing well.
While clearly there’s a chance that Fonseca puts this one to bed early doors, I think the price of 50/1 makes a small punt worth the risk.
The odds will collapse if Tabilo is able to repeat his victory of two months ago and there looks to be plenty in his favour.
Posted at 11:42 BST on 12/04/26
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