The claycourt season continues in Barcelona and Munich this week – Andy Schooler includes a 50/1 shot in his outright preview.
Tennis betting tips: BMW Open & Barcelona Open
1pt win Luciano Darderi in the BMW Open at 14/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt e.w. Alejandro Tabilo in the BMW Open at 50/1 (General)
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell
- Barcelona, Spain (outdoor clay)
Will appear here…
BMW Open
- Munich, Germany (outdoor clay)
The main decision for punters to make this week is whether or not to oppose top seed and title favourite Alex Zverev.
The German has always played his home event over the years and he’s won it on three occasions, including last season. However, he’s also played and failed to win eight times, with his overall win-loss record at the tournament being 20-8.
This year’s edition comes off the back of a tough week in Monte Carlo where Zverev made the semi-finals but played two lengthy matches to do so before suffering a chastening defeat to Jannik Sinner.
Notably, the last time Zverev made the semis in Monte Carlo, he lost his opening match here heavily.
He’s 11/5 for this year’s event and, as you’ve probably guessed, that’s not a price I’m massively keen on.
While Zverev is the class of the field, there are also four other members of the top 20 here and the seeds all come from the world’s top 32.
One of them, Francisco Cerundolo, is strong claycourter and a potential quarter-final foe.
However, it’s another player in the top half that I’m turning to and that’s LUCIANO DARDERI.
It was probably a mistake backing him in Monte Carlo so soon after his semi-final run in Marrakech given the change in altitude involved.
However, we’re back at a significant height above sea level this week – in the foothills of the Alps, Munich is around 500m up which is very similar to Marrakech.
The weather will be cooler – they’ve had snow flurries here before but that won’t be the case this year with temperatures forecast to be in the mid-teens, not dissimilar to Monte Carlo.
In short, conditions will be faster this week with the balls flying through the thinner air that bit quicker.
As well as his Marrakech run, Darderi has won an ATP title at altitude this season, doing so on the clay of Santiago, so he’s clearly shown a propensity for these conditions.
Last year he made the last eight here before losing to the big-serving Ben Shelton but there are no players with that sort of profile in his quarter this time around.
The Italian will open against Zhizhen Zhang, a player still working his way back after long-term injury, with Vit Kopriva or local wild card Justin Engel to follow.
Compatriot Flavio Cobolli is the higher-ranked seed in the section but his form has been poor since he won in Acapulco and he was well beaten by qualifier Alexander Blockx last week.
I think that’s a good draw for Darderi, although I can also see the viewpoint that he screams semi-final loser to Zverev.
That said, while he did lose their only previous meeting, that came two years ago and it was at least competitive, with Darderi taking the opening set to a tie-break.
At 14/1, I think he’s a decent alternative to the short-priced favourite.
The bottom section is led by last year’s runner-up, Shelton, but it also includes Joao Fonseca, who impressed in Monte Carlo last week before losing in the quarter-finals to Zverev.
At 9/1, I’m sure the Brazilian will have his backers this week but the altitude switch could be an issue, not to mention a tricky draw.
He opens against ALEJANDRO TABILO, who I feel could be worth siding with at a big outright price.
The Chilean is another proven altitude performer, while he’s also shown some good form in the early months of 2026.
Tabilo won up high in Chengdu towards the end of last season and while that was on hardcourts, he’s also gone well on the clay of Santiago in the past, reaching the final there two years ago.
Earlier this season, he returned to the quarter-finals of that event, while he’s also been to semis in Rio on clay this year.
Notably, Tabilo and Fonseca have already met on this surface this season, in Buenos Aires, where the Chilean won in three sets.
Last week in Monte Carlo, Tabilo came within a tie-break of defeating world number 13 Jiri Lehecka, so he’s clearly still playing well.
While clearly there’s a chance that Fonseca puts this one to bed early doors, I think the price of 50/1 makes a small punt worth the risk.
The odds will collapse if Tabilo is able to repeat his victory of two months ago and there looks to be plenty in his favour.
Posted at 11:42 BST on 12/04/26
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