Our tennis man Andy Schooler brings you his outright preview of the Miami Open, which starts on Wednesday.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
1pt e.w. Daniil Medvedev at 14/1 (General)
0.5pt e.w. Jack Draper at 50/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Arthur Fils to win quarter two at 13/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt any player to win the title without losing a set at 9/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Miami Open
- Miami, USA (outdoor hard)
It’s nine years since the ‘Sunshine Double’ was last completed – by a certain Roger Federer.
Jannik Sinner is the latest with the chance to attempt it following his sparkling success in Indian Wells and, given what we saw in California, you have to think he holds a strong chance.
What makes this a tough feat to achieve is the change of conditions.
The players move from the dry heat of the desert to the humidity of Florida, although at least the two tournaments are now both played on Laykold courts and with Dunlop balls, albeit the latter have come in for plenty of criticism.
It has tended to play slightly faster and with a lower bounce in Miami, but the humidity means the balls can fluff up and slow down even more. Conditions seem unlikely to be particularly quick.
Sinner seems unlikely to be too bothered. He’s an adaptable sort and arrives in fine form after winning Indian Wells without dropping a set.
He looked so solid in all departments – losing serve only twice across the week (and a bit) and proving so difficult to hit winners against.
The Italian also has a terrific record in Miami.
In four visits, he’s made three finals and won one title. The only year he didn’t make the final, he was forced to withdraw due to injury in the last eight – I remember it well having tipped him for the title!
Overall, Sinner now has a 19-3 record in Miami and has to have a great chance of adding a second title to his CV.
The problem is the price – Sinner is no bigger than 11/8 so I’m struggling to see much value.
His record against main title rival Carlos Alcaraz isn’t good – he’s lost seven of the last nine – and one suspects he was glad the Spaniard suffered a surprise defeat (his first of 2026) in Indian Wells.
The man who pulled off that upset was DANIIL MEDVEDEV and he simply has to be the price-based play.
I’d go so far as to say that Indian Wells was the best the Russian has played in years and he really wasn’t far away from winning the title; he didn’t lose a set until the final, beating Alcaraz in the semis and only losing to Sinner via two tie-breaks. He led 4-0 in the second of those.
The appointment of coach Thomas Johansson looks to have been a masterstroke and there had been clear signs of improvement from Medvedev at the back end of last year. Now, his new-found aggression is really paying dividends, while his serve looked back to its very best with no sign of the shoulder issues which had taken their toll on that key shot.
Like Sinner, Medvedev only lost serve twice in Indian Wells and he showed he can go toe-to-toe with the top two.
Yet the layers have him at 14/1, while the Big Two are both 7/4 or shorter.
That can’t be right given what we saw in Indian Wells and it’s not as if this is a venue at which Medvedev has struggled.
He won the Miami title in 2023, while he was also a semi-finalist the following year.
The obvious problem that Medvedev (and indeed the entire field) face is that he could have to go through both Sinner and Alcaraz to win the title.
And only one player has ever done that – Novak Djokovic at the 2023 ATP Finals.
But we saw in California that Medvedev wasn’t far away from becoming the second and I think he’s worth a try at odds of 14/1.
As you can probably tell by his lack of mention, I’m less keen on Alcaraz here, although I’m hardly writing him off.
But the fact is he lost here early to David Goffin last year, while 2024 saw him well beaten by Grigor Dimitrov in the last eight.
Alcaraz also has a very tricky potential opener against Joao Fonseca, a player who pushed Sinner to two tie-breaks in Indian Wells – he’ll still be regretting missing three consecutive set points in the first of them.
The Brazilian enjoyed huge support in Miami last season and the Latino locals should again create a fantastic atmosphere for his matches – a showdown with Alcaraz would surely be under the night lights.
Of course, an Alcaraz at the top of his game would be good enough to win that and probably any other match – and he did win here in 2022 – but for me there’s enough evidence to take him on.
An early loss to Fonseca would certainly open up the draw and I wonder whether JACK DRAPER is now in a position to take advantage.
He’s surprised me with his level since his latest injury comeback.
It was good enough to dispatch Novak Djokovic in Indian Wells but the gruelling nature of that match was felt the following day when Medvedev proved too good.
The Briton got a tad unlucky with the scheduling there – it was his only back-to-back match of the tournament.
Critics will highlight his poor 2-4 record in Miami but dig a little deeper and the data becomes more positive.
Draper has lost all five tie-breaks in Miami, a run which surely won’t continue for long, while his hold/break figures here are decent.
He’s held serve 86% of the time and broken in 23% of return games. Such numbers should really not be producing a 2-4 win-loss record.
In short, I think he’s worth a small punt at a chunky price.
King Arthur
With none of Sinner, Alcaraz and Medvedev involved, the second quarter looks to have betting potential.
The leading seed is Lorenzo Musetti, while the bookies’ favourite for the quarter is Alex de Minaur. However, both struggled in Indian Wells and look worth taking on.
Jenson Brooksby is the sort of grinder who could relish toughing it out in the humidity but 16s looks shot enough given he’s lacking strong form.
The same cannot be said of ARHTUR FILS, another who looks to be coming back towards his best level after long-term injury.
The Frenchman was a quarter-finalist in Indian Wells and that added to a final run in Doha. Across the two events, top-25 stars Felix Auger-Aliassime, Jiri Lehecka and Jakub Mensik were all defeated.
De Minaur would be another strong test in round three but the Aussie is just 5-6 in Miami. Win that, and the section would really open up.
With form strong, I think Fils is worth a try here at 13/2.
Finally, I noticed a bet among the specials which looks overpriced, namely ANY PLAYER TO WIN THE TOURNAMENT WITHOUT LOSING A SET.
With Sinner and Medvedev both in excellent form in Indian Wells and Alcaraz not too far away, all three could have a good go at achieving this.
Notably, Sinner has won three of his last four best-of-three events in this manner, while Medvedev didn’t lose a set as he won the title in Dubai recently and only Sinner took a set off him in Indian Wells.
The 9/1 being offered by Coral and Ladbrokes is too big.
Posted at 15:30 GMT on 17/03/26
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling.
Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.