All the last-16 matches at the Miami Open will be played on Tuesday. Andy Schooler picks out his best bets.
Tennis betting tips: Miami Open round three
1pt Jiri Lehecka to beat Taylor Fritz at 9/5 (Paddy Power)
1pt Francisco Cerundolo to beat Ugo Humbert at evens (bet365)
Jiri Lehecka v Taylor Fritz (1600 GMT)
A price of 9/5 about Lehecka in this two-horse race just caught the eye as being a little out.
The Czech is unbroken so far in Miami, beating both Moise Kouame and Ethan Quinn in straight sets.
Yes, the level certainly rises here and Fritz hasn’t done a lot wrong so far this week either – he’s not lost his serve, although he did lose a set against Botic van de Zandschulp on a tie-break.
Breakers could be key to this contest – the pair played three in Canada last summer. Fritz edged home that day to claim his fourth win in four meetings over Lehecka but the Czech has got on the board since, winning the pair’s Davis Cup rubber which notably was played in Florida, just up the coast at Delray Beach.
With Lehecka possessing the power to live with Fritz in any long rallies that evolve, I think there’s every chance that this match is settled by a handful of key points.
Fritz has already lost several tight matches this season, most notably the Dallas final from match-point up, and I just feel Lehecka is overpriced in this one.
Ugo Humbert v Francisco Cerundolo (not before 2300 GMT)
Cerundolo delivered us a winner when he comfortably covered the handicap against Daniil Medvedev on Monday – in fact he went rather too far by winning the match and killing my outright bet on the Russian!
Yet such a good victory only served to highlight his propensity for the Miami Open – this is the fourth time in five years he’s reached the last 16 and he’s progressed to the quarter-finals on each occasion.
I like his chances here too and am surprised to see the Argentine as the slight underdog.
Cerundolo won the only previous meeting between the pair, although that did come on clay at the Paris Olympics in 2024.
I still feel too many see him as a claycourter but, as his record here shows, he’s more than capable on a hardcourt. This year, he’s also beaten Andrey Rublev on this surface.
Humbert’s best tennis is nearly always played indoors and while the fairly speedy conditions are working for his aggressive, attacking game this week, Cerundolo can break it down.
On hardcourts so far this season, Cerundolo is holding 77% of the time and breaking 30%, which produced a combined figure of 107. Humbert’s 88-16 equivalent figures have him back on 104 – and we’ve already played a significant chunk of matches indoors, which should bolster his numbers (sadly I don’t have the outdoor/indoor breakdowns).
All things considered, Cerundolo looks worth a bet at even money.
Posted at 09:45 GMT on 24/03/26
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