After two winners from two bets in the last 16, Andy Schooler is back to preview the Miami Open quarter-finals.
Tennis betting tips: Miami Open quarter-finals
1pt Alex Zverev to beat Francisco Cerundolo 2-0 at evens (General)
1pt Frances Tiafoe (+5.5) to beat Jannik Sinner on thegame handicap at 10/11 (General)
Francisco Cerundolo v Alex Zverev (Thu)
Due to his impressive record in Miami – this will be a fourth quarter-final in five visits – Cerundolo made my shortlist when I was writing my outright preview, but didn’t make the final cut.
I’m beginning to regret that decision, although looking at it in the cold light of day, his run looks likely to end here.
These two have played three times on a hardcourt and Cerundolo is yet to win a set. Crucially, across those matches he’s broken serve only 7% of the time, while winning just 71% of his own service games.
Zverev’s serve is currently clicking too and when that’s the case, the rest of his game often falls into place.
In three matches so far this week, the German has been broken only twice (both by Marin Cilic). He didn’t face a break point in his wins over Martin Damm and, on Tuesday, Quentin Halys.
For all his good form – Cerundolo has already taken down Daniil Medvedev in Miami – the task of breaking the Zverev serve is the big one facing the Argentine. And it’s a test he’s clearly struggled to pass in the past.
A straight-sets win for Zverev looks the way to go here – that’s offered at even money.
Frances Tiafoe v Jannik Sinner (Thu)
Winning when not at their best is what champions do and that mantra applied to Sinner on Tuesday when he was pushed hard by Alex Michelsen.
The American served well and struck the ball powerfully from the baseline to cause plenty of problems. At 5-2 up in the second, he really should have forced a final set.
Sinner admitted he “struggled from the back of the court” and said he would head off to the practice court in a bid to iron out the flaws in his game.
He mentioned the breeze as a possible reason for his struggles but that’s often an issue in Miami and the forecast suggests it could well be in play when these two meet for the sixth time on Thursday.
Sinner leads 4-1 but it’s been a competitive series and Tiafoe has the game to follow in Michelsen’s footsteps – hit the first serve big and go for your shots off the ground.
Keeping the errors down will be key for Tiafoe who, like so many Americans, has often produced his best tennis on home soil.
He’ll be feeling good after comeback wins over defending champion Jakub Mensik (saved match point) and Terence Atmane (trailed 4-4 0-40 in the decider).
After the latter victory, he said “physically, I’m feeling pretty good” and while he did say he was mentally tired by the recent nature of his wins, a day off between matches should work in his favour on that front.
I’m not suggesting Tiafoe will land the upset here – he’s 16/1 to pull that off – but I do feel he can keep it relatively close.
Tiafoe gets a 5.5-game start on the handicap and that’s a bet I’m interested in.
He’s covered it in all five previous meetings with Sinner and can do so again.
Posted at 09:35 GMT on 25/03/26
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