Andy Schooler previews Sunday’s Miami Open men’s singles final between Jannik Sinner and Jiri Lehecka.
Recommended bets:
1pt under 20.5 games in Jiri Lehecka v Jannik Sinner at 17/20 (betway)
Jiri Lehecka v Jannik Sinner (2000 BST)
The last player to complete the ‘Sunshine Double’ of winning in both Indian Wells and Miami in the same season was a certain Roger Federer in 2017.
Now, nine years later, Jannik Sinner stands on the brink of achieving the feat.
The Italian is just 1/18 to finish the job when he faces Jiri Lehecka in Sunday’s final – this match is far from a punter’s paradise.
It does at least offer some level of intrigue.
Lehecka has been superb this past week or so and has himself already made a bit of history.
The Czech is the first player since Novak Djokovic in Shanghai in 2018 to reach an ATP Masters 1000 final without losing his serve.
His run has vibes of Jakub Mensik’s surge to the title here 12 months ago – his sledgehammer serve accounted for Djokovic in the final then – but the chances of repeat surprise look slim.
I base that assessment largely on the fact that in previous meetings with Sinner, he’s barely landed a glove on the Italian.
They’ve met four times and on each occasion Sinner has won in straight sets.
Three of those matches have come at tour level and in those contests, Lehecka is yet to break the Sinner serve.
Sinner’s 100% hold rate across the series is complemented by a 41% return-game success.
His first serve was always won at least 83% of points and the second has always been 56% or above.
Those are frightening numbers for Lehecka.
While the Czech is obviously serving well, perhaps the biggest issue for him is that Sinner is doing likewise.
He’s been broken only once across the tournament and in Friday’s semi-final he managed to slam 15 aces past the wide wingspan of Alex Zverev.
Zverev played well and did find some chinks in the armour of Sinner in the longer rallies but that serve got Italian out of the spots of bother he faced - notably in the early stages – and there was never any sign of panic.
"He played some incredible tennis, so I was serving very well in the end, especially in the crucial moments,” was Sinner’s fair assessment.
Keep serving in that vein and history suggests Lehecka will struggle, no matter how well he’s been playing himself.
Lehecka was certainly impressive in dismantling Arthur Fils on Friday, although you do wonder how much his French foe was feeling the effects of his lengthy and dramatic quarter-final win over Tommy Paul.
“Today was a nice example of how I want to play,” said Lehecka. “I executed it well.”
Being able to carry out your gameplan against Sinner is rather more difficult though.
The world number two’s ability to change the direction of the ball at pace – with the control that he does – is breathtaking and it’s hard to envisage the upset here.
That said, it’s also hard to see any interest in backing Sinner at 1/18 for the win – Lehecka is a best price of 13/1.
As is usually the case these days with a Sinner match, any bets have to come from the sub-markets.
Sinner is only 4/6 to continue to serve dominance against Lehecka by holding throughout the contest.
For those feeling Lehecka can find a way of fending off Sinner given the way he’s serving, you can get 7/4 about there being a tie-break in the match.
Neither are for me.
I do think Sinner is overpriced to serve under 11.5 aces at 5/6.
That’s largely based on the fact he’s never managed more than seven in a single match against Lehecka.
However, the way he was placing the ball, with pace, beyond the reach of Zverev means I’m not confident enough to put this up.
Instead, I’m going to turn to the total-games market which I think offers us a way of effectively getting with a comfortable Sinner victory.
Under 20.5 games is offered at a best price of 17/20, something which lands if Sinner is able to claim a 6-4 6-4 win, for example.
An early-ish break in each set may well land this bet and those previous meetings suggest it’s more than possible, some would say likely.
Posted at 08:00 GMT on 28/03/26
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