Andy Schooler brings you his outright preview of the 2026 French Open men’s singles.
French Open betting tips: Men's singles
1pt e.w. Casper Ruud at 25/1 (Betfred 1/3, 1-2)
1pt Flavio Cobolli to win the second quarter at 11/1 (Betfred)
French Open – men’s singles
- Roland Garros, Paris, France (outdoor clay)
Rafael Nadal won 14 French Open titles but I don’t remember him ever going off as short as 2/5.
Those are the odds offered about Jannik Sinner winning at Roland Garros in 2026, 21 years after Nadal first triumphed as a teenager.
The Spaniard always had fellow greats Roger Federer and/or Novak Djokovic up against him. Sinner, on the other hand, is lacking rivals.
His main one – defending champion Carlos Alcaraz – is out with a wrist injury and describing the rest as rivals seems a tad out of place given Sinner’s dominance of them.
Since August 2024, only four players not called Alcaraz have defeated the Italian, who arrives in Paris having swept all before him over the past few months – five Masters 1000 titles (the next level down from the Grand Slams) pocketed and 29 consecutive matches won, many by wide margins. Alex Zverev, the second seed in this field, won just three games when the pair met in Madrid.
In short, Sinner is a very worthy favourite and you should definitely enjoy watching a master at work over the next fortnight.
Such dominance does little for the tournament as a betting heat but I will try to find some angles by breaking down the quarters of the draw…
Quarter one
As suggested above, Sinner is hard to oppose – I get the impression that he only has to stay on his feet to win this tournament.
Maybe that’s unkind to the other 127 players in the draw but if he stays healthy and plays anywhere neat the levels he has over the past few months, I don’t see anyone stopping him.
Of course, there is a caveat in that sentence – if he stays healthy.
We’ve seen before Sinner have struggles during a Slam, often due to conditions – he looked out on his feet in the Australian Open heat earlier this year and while temperatures won’t get that high in Paris, they are due to head into the 30s in the first week. That should produce relatively quick conditions.
More recently in Rome there were some issues during his clash with Daniil Medvedev.
The French Open is tennis’ ultimate endurance test with it being best-of-five-sets and claycourts, which produce the longer rallies.
An argument can certainly be made that Sinner could be fatigued after playing full weeks in Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome in the lead-up to this event, although I’m not buying it.
Many of his matches have been blowouts, while he also looks well drawn.
For those who do want to oppose Sinner, I think you could do worse than look at Martin Landaluce, a potential third-round opponent for the top seed.
The young Spaniard was a quarter-finalist in Rome where he pushed Medvedev all the way, while he had previously been to the last eight on the Miami hardcourts.
He has a well-rounded game for a 20-year-old with a strong first serve, impressive groundstrokes and decent drop shot – always a good weapon to have on clay.
This is a rising star of the ATP Tour, one who may just bring that carefree attitude into such a clash. There is certainly no ‘baggage’ with the pair having not met before.
For the record, Landaluce is 100/1 to win this quarter.
Quarter two
Felix Auger-Aliassime to the man seeded to make the semis from this section of the draw but he’s always looked one to oppose at the highest level on clay.
He’s just 6-6 at this tournament and is yet to go beyond the last 16. The Canadian also has a terrible habit of losing first-round matches at the Slams.
The bookies make Daniil Medvedev their man to make the last four.
A case can certainly be made for the Russian and the point I would like to make about him is that I feel he’s more likely than any other player to win a match with Sinner.
Unlike so many of his contemporaries, there appears to be real belief in Medvedev that he can topple the world number one.
The pair played a very tight final in Indian Wells, a match which saw neither man break serve and Sinner win via two tie-breaks.
After moving onto the clay, they met again in Rome when Medvedev again fully tested the Italian, winning the second set before losing 6-4 in the decider.
Having proved he can push Sinner, I think he’d fancy his chances in best-of-five tennis when he could really test his opponent’s legs and bring that possible fatigue element into play.
The problem is, will Medvedev actually get to the semis, which is the round when he could face Sinner?
I’m not convinced. He’s never done that in Paris with just the one quarter-final appearance on the CV and this surface is one which can frustrate him.
The draw doesn’t help – Francisco Cerundolo and FLAVIO COBOLLI could both be faced before the quarter-finals.
At the prices, I think Cobolli is worth a punt in this quarter.
Admittedly, the Italian is rather hit and miss but during the current clay campaign he’s reached the Munich final and the quarters in Madrid, beating the likes of Medvedev, Alex Zverev and the in-form Vit Kopriva.
Clay is his surface and he appears to have been handed a good draw with a chance to play himself into the tournament.
After a qualifier first up and then either Marcos Giron or Yibing Wu, Learner Tien is due to be his first seeded opponent before that possible meeting with Medvedev.
Previous visits to Roland Garros haven’t produced anything spectacular but look deeper and you’ll find his three losses have come against Alcaraz, Zverev and Holger Rune. No disgrace there.
He’s worth a try at 11/1.
Quarter three
The market suggests Novak Djokovic is the man most likely to reach the semi-finals but that is putting a lot of faith in the Serb.
With just one match in more than two months, he looks underprepared for this physical test – and we know he’s struggled to keep his body in good working order over the course of these two-week Slams in the recent past.
What the bookies would clearly point out is the fact that Djokovic has actually reached the semis (or better) of the last five Slams.
My concern is that the clay has also been the least-natural surface for him and so coming in so cold is an issue, even for a player who has managed to produce a high level without much in the way of warm-up matches.
He lost to a qualifier, Dario Prizmic, in that only recent match and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him fall in week one, even though that hasn’t happened here since 2009 (and only twice in his whole career).
Prizmic is lurking in the draw and is a possible third-round foe, as is the highly-talented Joao Fonseca.
However, the man I see as the biggest threat is the Rome runner-up CASPER RUUD.
Clay has always been his surface and this tournament means more to him than any other.
He made the final here in both 2022 and 2023, while another may have been forthcoming in 2024 had he not been ill coming into his semi-final with Zverev.
In Rome, he looked back to the sort of levels which took him so deep here in the past.
He possesses a serve I’ve long said is underrated, plus a venomous forehand, while an ability to mix things up on the clay is also a positive.
Admittedly, the draw could have been more favourable with Tommy Paul and Djokovic looming before the quarters but Ruud is 4-2 up on the former and beat the latter in their most recent meeting, which came on clay in Monte Carlo in 2024.
Some will be put off by the price – 25/1 is half what we got when backing him each way in Rome, so there’s certainly an argument that the value has now gone.
However, I feel he’s arguably got just as good a chance as Zverev, who is half the price.
Quarter four
Alex Zverev’s Roland Garros record warrants respect, there’s little doubt about that.
This is a player who has made the quarter-finals on seven occasions, the semis four times and the final once.
Yet it’s the one that’s missing in that sentence – the title – which continues to be the concern for most punters.
Indeed, a Grand Slam title of any sort remains absent from the German’s CV.
What isn’t missing is a reputation of someone who is unable to deliver his best tennis when it truly matters.
Take the 2024 final against Alcaraz. Zverev led by two sets to one but became too passive with the winning line in sight. It’s happened on many other occasions too.
His 2026 campaign has a similar ring to it – many semi-finals reached but no title won. In fact, it’s now more than a year since Zverev lifted a trophy.
Could it happen here? Well, yes, but he’ll almost certainly need Sinner to suffer a shock exit – Zverev won just three games in their recent Madrid final and has now lost nine in a row against the Italian. The last six have all been settled in straight sets.
Some will back him for the final but not me.
The presence of Arthur Fils and Rafael Jodar is a worry for Zverev backers, although neither am I that sold on the duo.
I still question whether either man will handle the toils of best-of-five tennis at a Slam well.
Fils’ body has often let him down and he was last seen retiring in Rome. He says all is fine now but backing him is still taking a chance, albeit his form has been very good since he’s return from long-term injury.
As for Jodar, the teenager has shown what a talent he is in recent weeks, making quarter-finals in Madrid and Rome, as well as winning his maiden ATP title in Marrakech.
However, his lack of Slam (and best-of-five) experience is a worry for me.
This will be just the second Grand Slam main draw for the Spaniard and the way he disappeared rather quickly in the final set against Luciano Darderi in Rome is a definite concern for those backing him here.
That match lasted just over three hours – he could easily have to play four or five here.
I’ll leave this section alone.
Posted at 14:20 BST on 22/04/26
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