Andy Schooler was back in the French Open winners’ circle on Monday. Here he previews Tuesday’s quarter-finals at Roland Garros.
French Open betting tips: Daily best bets
1pt over 36.5 games in Rafael Jodar v Alex Zverev at 17/20 (General)
1pt Joao Fonseca (-3.5) to beat Jakub Mensik on the game handicap at 5/6 (Unibet)
Mirra Andreeva v Sorana Cirstea (1000 BST)
I’m tempted to go with veteran Cirstea here.
The 36-year-old has backed up her run to the semi-finals in Rome – where she beat world number one Aryna Sabalenka – by reaching this stage without losing a set.
She barely lost a game across the first week and while she was tested more in the last round, she was also the better player for much of that contest with Xiyu Wang and should really have won more easily than she did.
The Romanian is clearly in fine form although she did lose to Andreeva (in three sets) in Linz during the current claycourt season.
I’m still not totally convinced Andreeva is out of the top drawer but she’s one of those players who has proved me wrong a bit too often for my liking in the past; in short, I’m wary of going against her due to experience more than anything.
I’d lean towards Cirstea at 17/10 but I’m not going to pull the trigger.
Elina Svitolina v Marta Kostyuk (to follow)
Outright followers will already have an interest here – after Anastasia Potapova’s miserable choke on Monday, Svitolina is the last woman standing there.
However, she now faces a player I was concerned about when I wrote that piece – these were arguably the two most in-form players coming into the tournament.
Kostyuk, the champion in Madrid a few weeks ago, is yet to lose on clay this season and is now 16-0 on the surface.
It’s a record that means the bookies have her as a marginal favourite at 4/5.
I’m not going to argue too much about that. The head-to-head is level at 1-1 and this is a match which could go either way.
It should be an entertaining affair, too, so I’ll happily just sit back and watch this one without getting further involved financially.
Rafael Jodar v Alex Zverev (to follow)
I wrote the other day about Zverev maybe not dealing well with being the firm title favourite following the exits of Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic.
There were no signs of that as he dispatched Jesper de Jong on Sunday but then the Dutchman was never that likely to trouble him.
This is different.
Jodar is the breakthrough act of the season so far, with his results on clay particularly impressive – he’s gone 19-3 with a maiden ATP title in Marrakech, as well as a semi-final run in Barcelona and last-eight appearances at both the Madrid and Rome Masters events.
He’s got the power to live with Zverev off the ground and I don’t see him being cowed.
Zverev will know Jodar is a real threat and it will be interesting to see how he handles that.
He’ll look to keep serving well – the German has lost serve only five times in four rounds so far – but he did drop a set against Quentin Halys when the crowd got behind his opponent and one suspects they’ll be rallying behind the teenager here.
I wouldn’t rule the upset out at 13/5 but I’m not ready to side with that bet.
Instead, playing the overs on the total-games line makes greater appeal.
We probably need Jodar to win a set here but if he does I see the over 36.5 games landing.
There have been plenty of tie-breaks all tournament and the cooler conditions of the past few days haven’t stopped that trend.
Jodar played two against the big-serving Alex Michelsen the other day, while Zverev opened with one against De Jong. Another here would be no surprise and help push us towards that magic 37 figure.
Alternatively, you could back Jodar on the game handicap where he gets a 5.5 start but, for me, the total games approach is the better one.
Jakub Mensik v Joao Fonseca (not before 1915 BST)
Put simply, I feel Fonseca is the better claycourt player here.
It’s reflected the odds – the Brazilian is the 1/2 favourite – and I can see him winning this with a bit to spare.
His quality level was high against both Novak Djokovic and Casper Ruud and I’m not sure I see Mensik living with that if it’s reproduced.
Few hit the ball as hard as Fonseca and he’s done it without spraying too many errors over the past two rounds.
I expect him to win more of the lengthy exchanges and he may also get the edge on serve, despite that being a Mensik strength.
A look into the data shows Mensik has won 77% of points behind his first serve at the tournament so far but what is less impressive is that he’s getting that delivery in only 55% of the time.
That means his vulnerable second serve, which is winning only 45% of points, is getting exposed a bit too often for his liking and that’s an area where Fonseca should get plenty of joy.
In contrast, Fonseca is winning 58% of points behind his second serve – a shot he’s not having to hit anywhere near as often given 71% of his first serves are finding the box.
The bet I like here is for Fonseca to cover the game handicap line which is set at 3.5.
Admittedly, the fact that their only previous match was serve dominated is a bit of a worry – Fonseca won five tie-breaks at the 2024 NextGen ATP Finals, which were played in the Fast4 format.
However, this is a slower surface and both men have moved on considerably over the 18 months which have followed.
Posted at 20:25 BST on 01/06/26
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