After three winners from three bets on Saturday, Andy Schooler previews Sunday’s action at the French Open where the last 16 gets under way.
French Open betting tips: Daily best bets
1pt under 38.5 games in Casper Ruud v Joao Fonseca at evens (BOYLE Sports)
1pt Jesper de Jong over 1.5 service breaks of serve v Alex Zverev at 11/10 (bet365)
Casper Ruud v Joao Fonseca
They say you can’t win a Grand Slam in the first week but you can certainly lose it.
Well, while these two have made it into week two at Roland Garros – in remarkable style, I may add – one suspects they’ve already severely damaged their chances of going all the way.
Ruud has twice been taken to five sets, playing for almost five hours on Friday as he survived two match points against Tommy Paul.
As for Fonseca, he’s played back-to-back five-setters, the most recent being his thrilling victory over Novak Djokovic which took four hours and 53 minutes.
As well as the physical exertion in hot conditions, there will likely have been a mental one, too, with the huge attention he’s garnered in the hours since that success.
In short, my theory here is these two can’t keep on going to the well and one may well fade as this contest wears on.
In what will be the pair’s first meeting, I want to play the unders in the total-games market.
The way the line is set, the layers look like they believe there’s a strong chance that this is going five and while I can’t rule out that possibility, I think it’s more likely that someone runs out of gas before then.
Under 38.5 games is for me here.
Jesper de Jong v Alex Zverev
Quite frankly, I’m amazed De Jong is in the last 16 of the French Open.
He probably is too, particularly given he lost in the final round of qualifying.
He had little form coming into Paris but he’s certainly made his mark and a large payday awaits.
The run probably ends here but there’s an angle in the sub-markets I like.
A key trait of the first week of the tournament was the 30C-plus temperatures but that’s about to change and week two looks like it could feel like a completely different event.
The temperature is about to drop 10C overnight, while there’s a small chance of rain, of which we look likely to see plenty later in the week.
Both those factors mean slower conditions are likely on Sunday, which could take a bit of getting used to for all the players.
They should also mean more service breaks and that’s the approach I’m taking here.
De Jong is odds-against to break the Zverev serve over 1.5 times, something he managed when the pair met here two years ago, the German winning in four sets.
He broke the Karen Khachanov serve – which is far from weak - no fewer than seven times on Friday and has now won 17 return games across the entire tournament.
Zverev’s delivery will be harder to return but he lost his own deal three times against Quentin Halys in the last round, a match that was notably played in the slower night conditions.
Posted at 22:00 BST on 30/05/26
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