Andy Schooler has enjoyed a strong first week at the French Open. Here’s his take on Monday’s fourth-round matches.
French Open betting tips: Daily best bets
1pt under 39.5 games in Juan Manuel Cerundolo v Matteo Berrettini at 5/6 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Juan Manuel Cerundolo v Matteo Berrettini
I’m going to take a similar approach to this one that I did with Casper Ruud v Joao Fonseca on Sunday.
At time of writing, I don’t know the outcome of that bet but the theory was that a lot of tennis in the legs of both men would see at least one struggle and a relatively early finish ensue.
I can see that being the case here, too, with both players having pushed themselves hard in the first week.
Cerundolo famously took down Jannik Sinner in the second round in five sets, albeit the Italian’s physical struggles had much to do with that.
After what must have been a strange match to play mentally – and the media frenzy which followed – I suspect the last thing he needed was to play for virtually six hours on Saturday to defeat Martin Landaluce in a final-set tie-break.
The Argentine joked about playing this match “on one leg” although one suspects that comment may cut a little closer to the bone than he anticipated.
Berrettini was also involved in a five-set battle on Saturday, needing well over five hours to dismiss Francisco Comesana. He saved two match points in the process.
He’s in the last 16 of a Slam for the first time in three years. There’s a lot of talk about the Italian being ‘back’ but the reason he’s been absent from this stage for so long would be a concern for me.
His body has been brittle and a tough first week in Paris will have likely pushed it to its limit.
I’d certainly be concerned about siding with him as favourite here, particularly given his power advantage will be weakened by the cooler conditions we now have in Paris, and Cerundolo could be a touch of value at 27/20.
However, my initial point stands – who really knows what physical shape these two are going to be in? In-play bettors would do well to keep an eye on the early stages of this one.
I’m happy to play the unders again in the total-games line – there looks every chance one player will be more jaded than the other here, while there’s also the possibility of a quick set created by a player looking to save energy for the next one if they fall into an early hole.
Madison Keys v Diana Shnaider
Monday’s coupon isn’t full of value, in my opinion, but one bet of potential interest to those happy to play at fairly short prices comes in this match.
Keys leads the head-to-head 3-0 here but the stat I like regards aces.
While both players have struggled to hit them on the slower Paris clay, their numbers from the previous meetings are all heavily in Keys’ favour.
She’s won the ace count 9-1, 4-2 and 8-0 for a total of 21-3 across the three matches.
Long-term readers will know I place plenty of weight on the head-to-head stats in this market, as aces are all about how one player gets a read on another’s serve and their ability to get a racquet on the ball – it’s not about how good they are at actually returning it in play or breaking an opponent.
Clearly Shnaider has struggled to stop the big Keys first serve flying past her and I was tempted to back the American to serve the most aces at 4/6 – bet365’s quote is considerably bigger than Unibet’s 21/50.
Admittedly, that’s not a price I play at too often and I appreciate you may want to wait and have a look around for any other markets going up.
Flavio Cobolli v Zachary Svajda
Svajda has remarkably won matches at this tournament as both a 7/1 and an 8/1 shot, the latter seeing him past Francisco Cerundolo on Saturday.
It’s been a superb run for the American, who really had little in the way of claycourt form – or experience – to call upon coming into the event.
While it could be a mistake to write him off, this looks a match where the run should come to an end.
Svajda has dropped four sets en route to this stage, whereas Cobolli is the only man in the last 16 not to have lost a set in the opening week.
From what I’ve seen, he’s been in good form, albeit Learner Tien was disappointing in Saturday’s third-round match.
I’m happy to have the Italian at 11/1 to win his quarter from the pre-tournament outright preview and I can see him winning this pretty comfortably.
He’s odds-against for the straight-sets win, although it’s not a market I’m a big fan of.
With that outright bet still running, I can probably leave this one alone, although it is a lean others might want to side with.
Posted at 18:00 BST on 31/05/26
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