A new Grand Slam champion will be crowned in Sunday’s French Open men’s final. Andy Schooler previews Flavio Cobolli v Alex Zverev and offers up a 19/2 shot.
French Open betting tips: Daily best bets
0.5pt Flavio Cobolli to serve the most aces at 19/2 (Unibet)
Flavio Cobolli v Alex Zverev (1400 BST)
We’ve known it for a while now but Sunday will see a new Grand Slam champion crowned and the Sinner-Alcaraz duopoly broken after two and a half years of dominance.
Here, we want to decide who that is going to be.
Frankly, I think the outcome largely boils down to how Zverev reacts mentally.
To me, there’s little doubt that he’s been the best player so far at this tournament. While he has lost two sets, both were dropped when he was already two sets to the good and he quickly quelled any prospect of a comeback by both Quentin Halys and, on Friday, Jakub Mensik.
His serve has been firing near perfectly – he’s held in 93% of his service games – and the reality is he’s never really looked in serious trouble.
To be fair, you could say something similar about Cobolli.
He’s also been dominating opponents and has lost just two sets so far himself. When he did find a spot of bother – a set down to Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarter-finals – he responded superbly and won in four.
His speed around the court is impressive and he’s been striking his forehand powerfully and crisply.
Yet I’m not sure he does much better than Zverev, whose defence has been great, while he’s clearly added something to his game in terms of aggression.
The German also has the advantage when it comes to the head-to-head.
Zverev leads 3-1 (2-1 on clay), winning their most recent meeting in Madrid around a month ago for the loss of just five games.
His other victories have also come in straight sets but the one bright spot for Cobolli in the series is a notable one.
It came earlier this season in Munich when he dominated and won 6-3 6-3.
I must admit I didn’t watch that contest but from what I’ve read, it is widely considered one of the best matches Cobolli has ever played and shows that he is capable of winning this contest.
Still, Zverev heads into this one a firm favourite – no bigger than 2/7.
And herein lies the issue for me as a punter.
How will he react to that position, now he is within touching distance of the Grand Slam trophy which has so far eluded the 29-year-old?
Previously he’s failed to produce his best when it’s really mattered.
This will be his fourth Grand Slam final and while he did manage to get into winning positions in two of them, there’s little doubt he blinked with the finish line in sight.
At the 2020 US Open against Dominic Thiem, both men produced an error-strewn final set, knowing what was on the line, while in the 2024 Roland Garros title match, Zverev led Carlos Alcaraz by two sets to one but then seemed to become too passive and allowed his opponent back into it.
Staying true to the game that has got him this far will be key for Zverev. If he can do this, I think he’ll win comfortably and would not rule out a straight-sets victory at 13/8. All of the pair’s previous matches have been settled that way.
However, given his history, I can’t bring myself to back that – it’s simply too risky.
Cobolli will try to get Zverev going backwards, pushing him behind the baseline, and Zverev has all too easily retreated there, playing a more conservative game, in many big matches in the past.
If Cobolli manages that, he also brings into play his impressive drop shot.
He’ll certainly look to cause some damage on Zverev’s second serve – the German may be at 66% for second-serve points won in Paris but across his previous matches with Cobolli, he’s won just 49%.
The problem for the Italian is Zverev has one of the highest first-serve percentages in the sport and unless a mental wobble is forthcoming, he may not get too many looks at the weaker second delivery.
In short, so much of this match will come down to Zverev’s mental attitude and approach – and it’s hard to know what that will be.
But, for me, I don’t want to be backing him at short prices given what he’s produced in matches such as this before.
Instead, I’ll turn to a big price in one of the sub-markets, namely most aces.
Now, Zverev’s serve has been a key component of his run to this stage and it has certainly worked well, as highlighted by that aforementioned hold rate.
But that doesn’t necessarily translate into aces or aces dominance.
Looking across the tournament as a whole, Zverev has served 0.53 aces per game, which isn’t that much more than Cobolli (0.46).
However, as I’ve written many times in the past, the head-to-head is the key stat to look at before betting in this market and that paints something of a confusing picture.
For example, Zverev out-aced Cobolli 12-1 in Madrid recently but that came little more than a week after Cobolli had won the ace count 7-0 in Munich.
Overall, Cobolli has now won the ace count twice in four meetings with Zverev, yet he’s out at 19/2 to serve the most in this contest.
That is way too big.
I’m clearly not saying that is a nailed-on winner – far from it – but this gap in price between the players here is silly given the stats and, in particular, that recent meeting in Munich.
Yes, Zverev could waltz to victory again, as he did in Madrid (although the high altitude there certainly helped him) but that’s a known risk and I’m still more than happy to take a small punt on Cobolli at the price.
Posted at 15:15 BST on 06/06/26
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