Tony Calvin previews England's opening Six Nations match as they travel to Paris to take on France on Sunday.
Given France haven’t won the Six Nations since 2010 and have often finished fourth or worse since (taking the Wooden Spoon in 2013), they have a better record against England than you may expect.
They embarrassed themselves when having no defence to speak of in a 44-8 loss at Twickenham last season, when they left oceans of space between the three-quarter line and the (occasionally non-existent) full-back for England to exploit.
Which they did. And they also went down 55-35 in a bizarre, end-of-tournament, free-for-all in 2015. So they can be opened up at will.
If that happens on Sunday, then expect the TV coverage to cut to a picture of Shaun Edwards in the stands, with his head going purple and then exploding all over Fabien Galthie.
Or the Wigan man going on to the pitch and dragging a few players off, like a mum who has caught their 8yo swearing in a Little League match.
But I very much hope to see a different French side here.
France have won five of the 13 meetings between these two sides since 2010 and, the two aforementioned blow-outs aside, their losing margins in the other games read 8-2-10-5-10-3, only losing 19-16 at Twickenham in 2018.
They have also won four of their last six against England at the Stade de France in that period, losing 24-22 in 2012 and 31-21 in 2016, with the latter match in the balance at 25-21 going into the final 10 minutes before two lapses of discipline proved costly, and match-ending, for the home side.
That is promising enough, and I can’t wait to see their three-quarter line in action on Sunday.
Don’t get me wrong, I hadn’t heard of full-back Anthony Bouthier before I did the tournament preview on Monday – and fellow debutant and Montpellier club-mate, prop Mohamed Haouas, is another new one on me, too (Top 14 matches aren’t shown on Sky this season) – but perhaps that is not surprising given that Galthie has got Le Big Broom out after the World Cup.
But that back-line just oozes class and menace, and I was so relieved to see Antoine Dupont and Teddy Thomas getting the starting nod, while the centre partnership of Gael Fickou and Virimi Vakatawa is one dangerous-looking unit.
Time may tell us that England were a gift on the handicap giving away just a three and four-point start to such a young and untested side. And that is less than they were asked to concede to South Africa in the World Cup Final.
Of course, they looked the best side in the world when taking New Zealand apart in the semis, and they will obviously win the Grand Slam if consistently churning out performances like that again, but they have lost their main line-breaker in Billy Vunipola and we have to remember that their Six Nations campaign last season rather fell apart, too. They are not bomb-proof.
I am filing this before England name their team at 10.30am on Friday morning because I got fed up of waiting, and there seem to be only two (maybe three) areas of doubt.
It sounds like George Furbank will come in for an injured Anthony Watson at full-back (a fair blow to England) and it appears a toss-up between Joe Marler and Mako Vunipola at prop. It will look an incredibly strong squad on paper, whatever the final 23 chosen.
I have enough invested in a strong French opening performance to be going in personally again on any market here – and you will have too, if taking my outright advice – but clearly I would side with France on the handicap if pushed, even if the injury to hooker Camille Chat earlier in the week was a big loss and one that I was not happy at all to see.