With rain falling around the country Ben Linfoot picks out five horses that should relish underfoot conditions on Saturday.
Ground Conditions
Goodwood – Soft (GoingStick 5.2 on Friday morning). They have had 71mm of rain in the last 10 days and there are more showers forecast on Friday. Saturday looks dry.
Newmarket – Soft (GoingStick 6.1 on Friday morning). 26mm of rain has fallen on the track since Tuesday and more showers are forecast up until Friday night. Saturday looks cool but dry.
Windsor – Soft, Heavy in places (GoingStick 6.1 on Friday morning). Over 17mm of rain fell on the track on Thursday with up to 15mm forecast for Friday. A precautionary inspection has been called for 6.30am Saturday.
*Information correct at 1600BST on 28/08/2020
Grande Rumore – 12.55 Newmarket
The early signs are that Night Of Thunder progeny generally love ground with a bit of dig in it.
On good to soft or worse they have won 20 times from 93 goes at 21.51% and daughter of the sire GRAND RUMORE ran a cracker at Haydock on her second start, the only time she has encountered soft ground.
She improved to win at Leicester on August 2 when tackling seven furlongs for just the second time and the combination of that trip on soft ground could well bring about a career-best figure on Saturday.
It looks a deep race and even that might not be enough to secure the win, but she certainly merits the utmost respect in these conditions.
Eye Of The Water – 1.05 Windsor
If racing goes ahead at Windsor (precautionary inspection Saturday morning) then it’s going to be very testing indeed and that suits EYE OF THE WATER perfectly.
Ron Harris’ four-year-old has a career record of 1-1-3-1-3-9-2 on good to soft or worse and that ninth came on his seasonal reappearance at Newbury where the ground wasn’t too bad.
He really likes to get his toe in so this week’s rain is a major positive and it’s coincided with him dropping back down to a mark in the 70s after a handful of runs off 82.
Windsor suits, too, as he’s won and been second there from just two goes, so with plenty in his favour this particular mudlark is worth close inspection.
Shabaaby – 2.05 Newmarket
SHABAABY is a soft-ground monster and should love conditions in the Listed Close Brothers Hopeful Stakes on the July Course on Saturday.
Owen Burrows’ five-year-old won a novice race on this very track by nearly four lengths on soft ground on just his second start and he bettered that performance next time on the same going at Doncaster when he took a Class 2 Conditions Stakes at the Leger meeting.
Since then he’s only encountered ground with a bit of cut in once, at Haydock last May, and he won again in another Class 2 Conditions Stakes where he beat Emblazoned and Laugh A Minute.
Lightly raced this year as Burrows has waited for his ground, he looks to have a great chance at a decent price of extending his mud-loving record.
Sky Defender – 3.15 Windsor
I was interested to watch SKY DEFENDER’s first run on soft at York last week as Farhh progeny also seem to excel in the mud.
They are 11 from 44 at 25% in soft or heavy and Mark Johnston’s horse posted a career-best when a 28/1 second off a mark of 104 in soft ground at York last week behind Lucander.
Johnston steps him up in class to Group 3 company on Saturday in the Gallagher Group Winter Hill Stakes and he does have a bit to find with the rest of the field on official ratings.
That means he’s the outsider of the field, but he’s the only obvious pace angle and the ground might well be against one or two of his rivals, so he’s worth a second look at the odds.
Century Dream – 3.35 Goodwood
The Ladbrokes Celebration Mile looks a great opportunity for Simon & Ed Crisford’s CENTURY DREAM now the ground has turned in his favour.
Market rivals Benbatl and Regal Reality wouldn’t be as at home on testing ground, particularly the former, but Century Dream loves it.
He’s won on soft or heavy ground on four occasions and his career-best run came on soft in the 2018 QEII behind Roaring Lion.
In the winter he had wind surgery and he’s had two starts since resumption, a win in the Diomed Stakes at Newbury and a fifth in the Group One Prix d’Ispahan at Chantilly.
Both of those runs were on good ground, but it would be no surprise if he posted a season’s best now the mud is flying and that could be good enough for him to prevail.