Our Hong Kong expert Graham Cunningham takes a look at Sunday's card at Sha Tin live on Sky Sports Racing.
Numbers add up for Classic Cup
Old kings and young pretenders abound on a significant weekend Sha Tin card, with a vital piece of the BMW Hong Kong Derby puzzle awaiting as the exciting LITTLE PARADISE and NUMBERS clash in the Hong Kong Classic Cup at 08.45.
Official ratings are far from the sole guide when trying to assess the potential of progressive four-year-olds, but this pair have laid down persuasive markers in reaching marks of 103 and 100 respectively this season.
That puts them a few pounds clear of the other twelve hopefuls for the second leg of the Classic Series showpiece and the menu has added spice because it sets up as a duel between a powerful front runner and a thrilling holdup horse.
Zac Purton chose Brazilian G1 winner Sagacious Life in the Classic Cup and was left with severe windburn as former partner Little Paradise exploded out of traffic under Vincent Ho, producing a striking 22.51s to make eight of Sunday’s rivals look pedestrian.
Numbers is plotting a different Derby route but this Aussie import – a proven stayer having finished second in the Queensland Derby – has left an equally strong impression in making all to beat smart older rivals in a Class 2 and a G3 over 2000m and then Sunday’s distance of 1800m.
The market usually sways towards the flashy speed merchant rather than the stout stayer in cases like this and Sunday’s contest looks no exception, with Little Paradise forecast to go off at around 2.7 and Numbers nudging 4.5 overnight.
But there’s a lot to be said for resolute galloping when it’s combined with intelligent pace judgement and Derek Leung has established a strong rapport with Numbers, allowing him to use his long stride to maximum advantage.
Little Paradise is unquestionably a huge danger. Only a good horse can settle a Classic Mile like he did, but Numbers will make his own luck at a slightly bigger price and he won’t be an easy horse to pass over a trip that suits him very well indeed.
Trial worth noting as Round 5 approaches
It’s a case of seconds out for Round 5 as the ageless ROMANTIC WARRIOR and last year’s Triple Crown hero VOYAGE BUBBLE meet again in the Citi Hong Kong Gold Cup at 7.35.
The first point to make about this £1.23m G1 is that this ongoing heavyweight head-to-head has been one sided thus far.
Romantic Warrior is 4-0 up - starting with a gallant neck success in this race two years ago and latterly when forging clear in last month’s Stewards’ Cup – and his overall record speaks for itself.
Twelve G1 wins; unbeaten in HK since May 2023; a Cox Plate, Yasuda Kinen and Jebel Hatta; still rated 127 on the global scale aged eight; and a will to win that is oh so rare.
Voyage Bubble’s record isn’t too shabby, either, with two HK Miles among six G1 successes, but he was clearly below his international rating of 121 when beaten over three lengths into third in the Stewards’ Cup.
All that said, it is worth mentioning a recent trial encounter over a mile at Sha Tin.
Now a trial is a trial and all that, but Voyage Bubble looked back on song on February 20th, travelling keenly on the pace and holding his old rival by half a length as the pair drew clear.
Perhaps I’m guilty of reading too much into that rather nebulous clue and early market signals suggest this will be a case of 1.2 or thereabouts for HK’s undisputed middle-distance champ with 8-1 or bigger about Voyage Bubble.
But Voyage Bubble should probably be shorter than that. His last run was plain, right enough, but that recent trial was much more like it and I suspect he can give Romantic Warrior more to do than the market suggests, especially if Zac Purton snags an easy lead.
Galactic and Gusto two to note
GALACTIC VOYAGE and GUSTOSISIMO are another two to keep an eye on during Sunday’s supporting card.
Former Britannia winner Mickley will corner a fair chunk of support for the Class 3 dash at 7.00 but, despite a strong finishing second on his latest start two weeks ago, I’m still not convinced that 1200m is his ideal trip.
By contrast, this distance looks ideal for Galactic Voyage. Francis Lui’s gelding got off the mark in decisive style at the third attempt recently, beating a couple who have polished the form, and an 8lb hike shouldn’t stop him going close again.
Bidding to make it five wins from six handicap starts this season, the prolific Emblazon looks sure to start favourite for the finale at 9.55, but Cody Mo’s gelding has been hiked 9lb to a mark of 80 for his Class 2 debut.
Juneau Pride looks one viable alternative under Andrea Atzeni, but Gustosisimo has been knocking on the door at this level recently and the return of Angus Chung’s 2lb claim is an added plus on the back of a fine third in a slightly deeper affair than this last time.
Sunday’s Sha Tin Selections
7.00: Galactic Voyage
8.45: Numbers
9.55: Gustosisimo (EW)
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