Champions Day tips: Arisaig on right track for Balmoral Handicap

With the weights for Saturday's Champions Day finale - the Balmoral Handicap - set three weeks ago on September 24, there are no fewer than 10 horses at the time of writing who could be considered ‘ahead of the handicapper’.

They include Jamie Osborne’s course regular Hickory, who runs off 93 having gone up to that revised rating following his seven-furlong win in a Classified Stakes on September 5. He’s since run another typically creditable race when second to Native Warrior in the BetMGM Challenge Cup (also seven furlongs), for which he’s gone up to a career-high 96 for future engagements.

Hickory’s recent conqueror, Native Warrior, picks up a 6lb penalty for his triumph so he’s technically only 1lb well-in, with Mythical Guest and One Night Thunder – the other pair at a 3lb advantage still engaged at the time of writing – not expected to make the cut. Native Warrior is looking to follow in the hoofprints of Aldaary who did the Challenge Cup/Balmoral double in 2021. Four others, including last year's winner Carrytheone, were beaten in the same prep race en route to Champions Day glory.

There are half a dozen horses 2lb ahead of the curve, the most interesting from my point of view being Apiarist and Arisaig. The former won three times on the all-weather through the winter, two of those successes coming at a mile, and he looked on the verge of a return to peak form when third behind Native Warrior and Hickory here a fortnight ago.

WATCH: This year's BetMGM Challenge Cup, which has been an important Balmoral trial

Charlie Johnston’s filly Arisaig has had her official mark adjusted (+2lb) for last month’s highly creditable Newmarket third behind stablemate Francophone in the Listed Rosemary Stakes.

The intriguing twist with her is that Jamie Spencer – who rode Native Warrior last time but is now replaced by that horse’s owners’ retained rider James Doyle – switches back to Arisaig, who Spencer gave an archetypal never-nearer ride when third in the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood earlier in the year.

So for all the clamour around looking for a 'potential Group horse’ in this handicap, Arisaig already has that kind of form in the book. In addition, Johnston won the race with a four-year-old The Gatekeeper two years ago, his first season with a sole licence, and if you’re in any way concerned that Arisaig’s relatively busy summer schedule might catch up with her at some point, it’s worth reminding ourselves that The Gatekeeper was making his 15th appearance of the year when successful under Joe Fanning.

She’s currently 25/1 with one firm (same as The Gatekeeper’s SP) and I only see that price going one way provided she fares reasonably well with the draw on Thursday.

Seven of the past 10 Balmoral winners emerged from single-figure stalls (the other three in that period were drawn 11, 11 and 21) and ground conditions remaining on the better side of good can only be considered a positive for the Middleham raider.

Balmoral Handicap winners – 2015 to 2024

2024 – Carrytheone

• Age: 7
• Odds: 14/1
• Official Rating: 104
• Draw: 5
• Final prep race: 6th in Challenge Cup at Ascot, October 5
• Course form: 0-3-5-3-6
• Trainer/Jockey: Michael Bell/Christophe Soumillon

2023 – The Gatekeeper

• Age: 4
• Odds: 25/1
• Official Rating: 96
• Draw: 4
• Final prep race: 4th at Goodwood, September 25
• Course form: 2-0-0
• Trainer/Jockey: Charlie Johnston/Joe Fanning

2022 – Shelir

• Age: 6
• Odds: 80/1
• Official Rating: 102
• Draw: 11
• Final prep race: 14th in Challenge Cup at Ascot, October 1
• Course form: 5-8-5-0-7-6-0
• Trainer/Jockey: David O’Meara/Jason Watson

2021 – Aldaary

• Age: 3
• Odds: 7/2
• Official Rating: 109 (including 6lb penalty)
• Draw: 11
• Final prep race: WON Challenge Cup at Ascot, October 2
• Course form: 1-5-5-1
• Trainer/Jockey: William Haggas/Jim Crowley

2020 – Njord

• Age: 4
• Odds: 15/2
• Official Rating: 102
• Draw: 4
• Final prep race: 4th at Listowel, September 22
• Course form: NA
• Trainer/Jockey: Jessica Harrington/Tom Marquand

2019 – Escobar

• Age: 5
• Odds: 16/1
• Official Rating: 105
• Draw: 21
• Final prep race: 3rd in Challenge Cup at Ascot, October 5
• Course form: 0-0-0-0-2-4-3
• Trainer/Jockey: David O’Meara/Adam Kirby

2018 – Sharja Bridge

• Age: 4
• Odds: 8/1
• Official Rating: 105
• Draw: 8
• Final prep race: 7th in Cambridgeshire, September 29
• Course form: 8
• Trainer/Jockey: Roger Varian/James Doyle

2017 – Lord Glitters

• Age: 4
• Odds: 3/1 favourite
• Official Rating: 102
• Draw: 3
• Final prep race: 2nd in Challenge Cup at Ascot, October 7
• Course form: 2
• Trainer/Jockey: David O’Meara/Danny Tudhope

2016 – Yuften

• Age: 5
• Odds: 12/1
• Official Rating: 101
• Draw: 1
• Final prep race: 4th at Newmarket, September 24
• Course form: 5
• Trainer/Jockey: Roger Charlton/Andrea Atzeni

2015 – Musaddas

• Age: 5
• Odds: 7/1
• Official Rating: 96
• Draw: 4
• Final prep race: 7th in Cambridgeshire, September 26
• Course form: NA
• Trainer/Jockey: Saeed bin Suroor/Edward Greatrex

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