Ben Linfoot takes an in-depth look at the John Smith's Cup taking into account pace and tactics while he tries to answer the key question: have the market leaders shown their hand?
It’s the 61st renewal of the John Smith’s Cup at York on Saturday, the longest running commercial sponsorship in British racing. ‘Ave it.
Known as the Magnet Cup until 1998, beer is synonymous with the race and not only because of the sponsors. It’s traditionally York’s busiest day of the year, with crowds of over 40,000, and the beer flows like water.
Unfortunately, of course, that won’t be the case this year as horse racing continues to race behind closed doors and it won’t be the only unrecognisable facet of the race.
Usually the richest middle distance handicap in Britain with a prizemoney pot of £200,000, that’s been cut to £60,000 this year, with the winner collecting £37,500, an unfortunate but necessary sign of the times.
It’s fantastic, then, that the race has held up so well. 14 of the maximum field are rated over 100 and we have the usual mix of Newmarket raiders venturing north with a stronghold of local trainers attempting to keep the prize in Yorkshire.
I thought perhaps this year, of all years, we might see the return of three-year-old representation in the race, which is sadly not the case, but the top of the market is flooded by improving four-year-olds from the top yards.
Two horses rated in the 80s do sneak in at the very bottom, the first time that has happened since 2009 but, make no mistake, this looks an up-to-scratch renewal and as difficult a puzzle as it normally is to try and crack.
Usually part of ‘Super Saturday’, the John Smith’s Cup has been in the shadow of the July Cup in recent seasons, but this time around it’s the Saturday feature all on its own.
Let’s dig a little deeper.
Weather & Ground
The official going is Good, Good to Firm in places at the time of writing on Friday and it looks a pretty safe bet they’ll be riding on a very similar description come Saturday afternoon.
There has only been 1mm of rain at the track in the last week and Friday is forecast to be dry with only some light patchy rain forecast early on Saturday.
That’s not expected to have much effect at all and the Good to Firm patches look to be at the 10-furlong start as well as the final three furlongs in the home straight.
Prediction: Good, Good to Firm in places.
Pace & Tactics & Draw
A low draw is usually perceived as the place to be on a left-handed round course, especially when the bend comes up as quick as it does on the 10-furlong track at York, but that hasn’t been the case in this race over the years.
Every stall has had a horse placed in the first four in this race in the last 20 years, apart from stall 10, and there has been an even spread of winners from inside to outside.
Since 2004 10 winners have broken from stall 12 or higher, while we’ve had winners break from one, three and six in the last five years, too, so you can win from anywhere.
Most York handicaps over this distance wouldn’t have anywhere near 20 runners, so I’m reluctant to dig any deeper and will instead get straight into how this year’s renewal could be run.
There looks to be a handful of runners that will want a prominent pitch.
From the widest stall of all in 23, we have Sky Defender who will likely be ridden across to be up there by Joe Fanning.
To his inside Rise Hall and Graham Lee will probably attempt a similar manoeuvre. Euchen Glen made all from stall three for his success in this race two years ago and he breaks from stall 14 this time around, so he could be prominent, too.
And of those drawn more towards the inside Archie Perkins from stall eight, Desert Icon from stall five and Dark Jedi from stall two, are also likely to be up with the pace considering recent running styles.
Good Birthday, Nicholas T and Baltic Baron look likely to be held up and will be banking on a strong gallop, something that looks likely given those aforementioned pace forcers.
They usually drift towards the stands’ side from the home bend and we could see some tactical moves at the top of the straight, especially with the fancied horses like Caradoc, Harrovian, Fifth Position and Solid Stone likely to be mid-pack from their largely central draws although the latter is drawn wider in 21.
Of course, a solid gallop all the way through is far from guaranteed and this could pan out like last year, where there was a dash to be up front early on before the pace slackened up, with those close up but just off the pace favoured.
Key Form
The Investec Handicap won by Sky Defender at Epsom looks a key form race.
Four horses that ran in that contest reoppose at York; the winner, the third, Tinandali, the sixth, Caradoc and the 11th, Certain Lad.
It’s been a useful trial for the John Smith’s Cup in recent years, as Tres Coronas was third in both races in 2013, while Roger Varian’s Farraaj won both races in 2014.
I wouldn’t rule out Sky Defender running another big race. He has a 5lb rise in the weights to contend with, but it’s easy to envisage him getting across from his wide draw and enjoying a prominent pitch.
He’s by Farhh, whose progeny are starting to amass a pretty good record at York (five wins from 20 representatives at 25%, with Wells Farhh Go, Elegiac, Makawee and Bedouin’s Story the winners).
There is no doubt, though, that Caradoc is the most interesting one from that Epsom race. He was drawn out wide and close to Sky Defender that day, but they had polar opposite starts.
Dropped out by Oisin Murphy, he made good late gains to grab sixth and he came on significantly for his first run last season, while he has York form, too, so it’s no wonder he’s found his way to the top of the market.
There was half a length between himself and Great Example at Newbury last September, in Ed Walker’s horse’s favour, and he gets a 4lb pull at the weights.
It’s no wonder, then, that Saaed bin Suroor is turning to man of the moment Cieren Fallon and his golden 3lb claim on Great Example.
There simply isn’t a better trainer at utilising claimers than Bin Suroor. Since 2009 he’s had 91 winners ridden by claimers at a 23.51% strike-rate with his Godolphin colleague Charlie Appleby the only trainer close to that win strike-rate figure (46 winners at 23.35%).
Royal Ascot is also usually a good source for John Smith’s Cup winners.
Since 2002 Vintage Premium, Wigmore Hall, Green Destiny, Educate and Ballet Concerto all won at York on the back of Royal Ascot defeat, but three of those came from the Wolferton, which is no longer a handicap.
Ballet Concerto was fourth in the Hunt Cup and three horses from this year’s renewal of that race line up in the John Smith’s Cup; the fifth Baltic Baron, the seventh Afaak and 16th home What’s The Story.
Good Birthday was 13th in the Duke Of Edinburgh, which is a very similar prep to last year’s John Smith’s Cup winner, his stablemate and ownermate, Pivoine, who was way down the field in the same race before winning at York.
The other race worth watching is the Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap run at Doncaster on June 14.
Fifth Position beat Saturday’s rivals Anythingtoday, Sky Defender and Archie Perkins in that contest having previously finished third in a hot Newcastle handicap behind subsequent Royal Ascot winners Sir Busker and Dark Vision.
The Key Question: Have the bulk of the market leaders shown their hand?
A feature of this year’s race is the amount of last-time out winners and four of the top six in the betting have a ‘1’ next to their name.
There are six last-time out winners in the race in total with Solid Stone up 7lb, Harrovian up 6lb, Desert Icon up 9lb, Fifth Position up 5lb, Sky Defender up 5lb and Dark Jedi also up 5lb.
Since 1997 there have been six last-out winners in the John Smith’s Cup (from 73 representatives at 8.22%) and five of those had gone up the handicap on the back of their victories...
Last time out winners in John Smith’s Cup since 1997
6/73 8.22% Percentage Rivals Beaten 50.61%
- 1998 – Porto Foricos – no hike from maiden
- 2001 – Foreign Affairs - +6lb won Goodwood handicap
- 2004 – Arcalis - +7lb won Ayr handicap
- 2008 – Flying Clarets +5lb won Hamilton conditions
- 2009 – Sirvino - +8lb won Ayr handicap
- 2014 – Farraaj - +9lb won Epsom handicap
It can be done, but it’s not really a surprise to see the two for money are Caradoc and Great Example, the two horses at the top of the market without a win to their name last time out.
Desert Icon has a particularly tough assignment up 9lb, but he does at least have his ideal conditions which are 10 furlongs on faster ground.
Connections of Fifth Position and Harrovian will probably be happy with their 5lb and 6lb rises in comparison, but both have questions to answer.
Fifth Position apparently isn’t the easiest at home and he’s without Andrea Atzeni for the first time in his career here, while Harrovian has to prove it was the soft ground and not York that was the reason for his flop on the Knavesmire last October.
Solid Stone, Harrovian, Fifth Position and Desert Icon are all priced up between 8/1 and 12/1 and they look like they’ve found their correct market position to me, but another last-time out winner is interesting at the prices.
Betting Conclusion - Returns from the Jedi?
Dark Jedi at 16/1 is the one I like. He quickly attained a rating of 100 in his first four starts for Charlie Hills before going off the boil for that trainer.
However, the switch to Tim Easterby’s looks to have benefitted him hugely as he bolted up at Hamilton on his second start for his new yard, despite finding trouble in the run, and then backed that up with another win at Ripon.
That was a particularly taking success as he reeled in a well-fancied William Haggas-trained horse, Nicklaus, in really good style and was comfortably on top at the line.
A 5lb rise takes him to 89, so there’s still plenty of upside on his highest rating and now he’s stepped up to a mile and a quarter we’re really seeing the best of him.
He’s a different horse to the one that flopped at York at this meeting last year and, going back to the draw and likely pace, he could be one of those that benefits for just sitting off the early gallop in a prominent position from stall two.
Perhaps he can be the horse to win a first John Smith’s Cup for an Easterby, a name that’s a surprising omission from the race’s 60-year roll of honour.
Caradoc has gone very short at 6/1 but it's easy to see why he's so popular.
The son of Camelot wouldn't be a win only bet for me at those odds, but it’s very hard to see him out of the frame as he looks to have more to give, he’ll like the ground, he has track form and is very consistent.
His form ties in closely with Great Example and he completes the 1-2-3.
His 301-day absence is of no concern as Bin Suroor can ready them after a break (he operates at a 25.57% strike-rate with horses running off a 300 to 400 day absence) and the booking of Cieren Fallon is clearly a huge positive.
John Smith's Cup Verdict
1. Dark Jedi
2. Caradoc
3. Great Example
One to Keep An Eye On
Sinjaari. We haven’t mentioned William Haggas’ horse but he’s another that enters calculations. He’s been targeted at this race from a long way out and looks well treated off the pick of his form from last season, notably his short head second to Headman and Glorious Goodwood third. However, it’s with Goodwood in mind I think he’s worth monitoring, as he was unlucky at that track last year and a positive showing here might just set him up perfectly for a decent pot in Sussex.
Preview posted at 1510 BST on 17/07/2020
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
Sky Bet's responsible gambling tools are detailed here and if you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.