After two winners from two in midweek, Dan Costanza takes a look at tonight's NBA encounter between the Miami Heat and the Sacramento Kings, selecting a best bet.
NBA betting tips: Miami Heat @ Sacramento Kings
2pts Bam Adebayo Over 25.5 Points and Rebounds combined at 5/6 (William Hill)
Saturday night in the NBA sees the Sacramento Kings play host to the Miami Heat, who will continue their West Coast road trip after games at Portland and at Golden State earlier in the week.
The Kings are still looking to get a win in the column this season, and they have certainly not started many will have envisaged, now sitting at 0-4 and in the basement of the Pacific Division.
While they may be winless, they have played some competitive games and I would expect more of the same on Saturday night and do not expect to see a blow-out for either team.
Tip-off time: 23:00 BST, Saturday
TV Channel: Free to watch on Sky Bet
Moneyline: Miami Heat 8/13 @ Sacramento Kings 11/8
Points Spread: Miami Heat (+3.5) 10/11 @ Sacramento Kings (-3.5) 10/11
In terms of value and my selection this evening, I will look towards Miami, and believe there is good value in backing BAM ADEBAYO OVER 25.5 POINTS AND REBOUNDS COMBINED.
While the Kings have had some competitive games, the early theme is that the defence is still the weak point that it was last season, and it won't be a quick fix.
I think going against that as an angle can present value, especially for a team like Sacramento who likes to push the ball up and down the court. If they can impose their up-tempo style of play upon Miami, we could see Miami with more possessions than they'd typically have which will hopefully result in a bountiful stat line for Adebayo.
Jimmy Butler may be the star of the Heat, but this is not a solo act on offense. The offense is actually quite balanced with Adebayo, Butler, and Tyler Herro all sharing the bulk of the workload with each having a usage rate around 23%.
Butler and Hero tend to take more shots, which would be expected as they are legitimate threats from beyond the 3 point line where Adebayo is not, but Adebayo is not far off their pace.
Adebayo has made true on his promise to be more aggressive this year, and if he keeps up this pace, I think he has a great chance to have another 20 point performance like he did on Thursday evening against the Warriors where he posted a 26 point and 8 rebound showing.
This game will cap off the West Coast trip for the Heat as after the contest this evening they will head back to Miami where they'll face the Warriors again.
Given that the Heat had the day off yesterday, I expect them to be more than up to the challenge tonight and think Bam Adebayo will come in feeling confident and hopefully continuing the momentum from his last outing.
The Heat will also once again be without Victor Oladipo who has been ruled out for the entirety of this trip. When he returns from injury, I would expect him to command a significant role in the offense but without him once again I believe Adebayo will help lead the charge.
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