MMA betting tips: UFC Fight Night preview and best bets
MMA expert Will Dean previews UFC Fight Night, in which Kelvin Gastelum and Jared Cannonier should put on a real show.
MMA betting tips: UFC Fight Night, Saturday August 21
3pts Gastelum v Cannonier fight to go to decision at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
3pts Brian Kelleher to win by KO or submission at 6/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Durable contenders
Saturday night’s main event features two of the many possible contenders to the Middleweight throne: Kelvin Gastelum and Jared Cannonier. Both men are returning from losses to former champion Robert Whittaker, but a decisive win this weekend could easily thrust one of them back into the title picture.
Gastelum’s previous quest for gold ended in one of the most spectacular title fights in UFC history when he lost a decision to Israel Adesanya, but the beating he suffered in the final round seems to have taken its toll on his long term potential. Although still only 29 years old, Gastelum appears to have lost a step in recent fights, with many questioning if he will ever reach his prime again.
Conversely, Cannonier is a fighter on the rise, having finally found his feet in the UFC. It is absurd to think that The Killa Gorilla ever fought up at Heavyweight, but a string of three finishes at 185lbs has certainly made the Middleweight division feel like home. The recent decision loss to Whittaker put an end to that impressive run, but a broken arm was the difference maker and Cannonier was still able to keep things competitive throughout.
I can understand why Cannonier is the favourite here, but this fight should be closely contested from start to finish. Gastelum is a well-rounded competitor who has been fighting at the highest level for some time, and is also one of the most durable athletes on the entire roster. Even when the former Ultimate Fighter winner is hurt by a clean strike, his instincts for survival are remarkable, so much so that no man has been able to finish him with strikes.
With this being Gastelum’s 25th professional fight, I do not expect Cannonier to be the first man to knock him unconscious. Having gone the distance with both Adesanya and Whittaker, as well as Jacare Souza, Darren Till and Tyron Woodley, Gastelum should be in for another long night, winning or losing this bout on the judges’ scorecards.
At 11/10, betting this FIGHT TO GO TO DECISION seems a wiser choice than backing either fighter to win.
Business is booming
At 35 years of age and with 11 UFC bouts under his belt, BRIAN KELLEHER has been one of the most entertaining preliminary fighters in recent years. The New Yorker has never shied away from a brawl, evident in the long list of dangerous and challenging opponents he has faced throughout his career, but Boom is also more than happy to compete against inexperienced fighters to the UFC’s Octagon.
With a record of 8-2, Domingo Pilarte would certainly rank amongst the latter. The Son of Fire has fought three times under the UFC’s banner; winning from the brink of defeat, losing a close decision and being knocked out in under a minute. Facing a veteran like Kelleher is a tough test for any inexperienced fighter, but Pilarte’s inability to deliver a consistent performance will likely see him on the losing end yet again.
The unreliability of Pilarte stems from his reluctance to absorb damage. As a fighter who is comfortable being the hammer and not the nail, any sort of resistance or forward movement from an opponent seems to disrupt Pilarte, who appears to panic and lack a defensive gameplan.
Considering Pilarte holds an advantage of six inches in height and ten in reach, he will be facing an opponent in Kelleher who has no choice but to get in his face and throw hooks at close range. In the Apex’s smaller cage, Boom will have every opportunity to back his opponent into the fence and demonstrate his power in an attempt to land the knockout blow. If Pilarte looks to escape the barrage with a takedown, he faces an immediate threat from one of the most dangerous guillotine chokers in the UFC.
Therefore, Pilarte is likely going to find himself in uncomfortable and dangerous positions throughout the majority of this fight. Of Kelleher’s 22 professional wins, 18 have come inside the distance, a record that appears likely to grow on Saturday night. Boom should probably be a bigger favourite in this one, so backing KELLEHER TO WIN BY KO OR SUBMISSION is an appealing option at 6/5.
Posted at 1530 BST on 19/08/21
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