Ross Williams previews Sunday's Week 17 NFL slate, bidding to follow up a winning double with two selections.
NFL betting tips: Week 17
2pts Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) to beat the Cleveland Browns at 10/11 (General)
2pts Eagles @ Bills - over 276.5 total rushing yards at 5/6 (bet365)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
- Sunday, 18:00 GMT
Off the back of a three-game win streak, the Pittsburgh Steelers look well positioned to clinch the AFC North title this weekend, taking on the 3-12 Browns who have recorded just one victory since mid-October.
Mike Tomlin’s Steelers have won their last trio of games by an average margin of 7.6 points, and each of those three opponents were teams higher up the totem pole than the Browns. Cleveland, on the other hand, have lost their last four by an average margin of 12.5 points.
Clearly the numbers are stacking up in favour of the Steelers and with a division title on the line and wind very much in their sails, it’s hard not to fancy Pittsburgh covering what is a fairly slender handicap.
In the 12 games the Browns have lost this season, they’ve covered the underdog handicap on just three occasions, while Pittsburgh have proven to be an excellent team against the spread. Besides missing out by a single point against the Jets in week one, the Steelers have covered the handicap in every other 2025 regular season win to date.
There is one caveat to this selection, however.
Due to the scheduling over this Christmas period, there is the possibility that the Steelers may have the AFC North title wrapped up before they even take to the field on Sunday afternoon.
Pittsburgh’s attention on Saturday night will be drawn to two teams they have significant links to: their long-time rivals, the Baltimore Ravens, and the Green Bay Packers – the franchise synonymous with the Steelers’ current starting quarterback, Aaron Rodgers.
If the Packers win, the Steelers will be home and hosed ahead of time, so there is the possibility Mike Tomlin will make the decision to take some of his key starters – including Rodgers – out of the firing line ahead of a postseason tilt.
With that in mind, this selection is all about timing, and maybe a little bravery. The three-point handicap has the possible benching baked in, so taking the price early will pay massive dividends if we do see the Steelers’ starters out there on Sunday afternoon.
A little caution is required here, but would the Steelers’ second string be good enough to give Cleveland all they can handle anyway? Quite possibly.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills
- Sunday, 21:25 GMT
Sunday evening is headlined by two giants of the modern NFL era and we could be in for quite a show.
Picking a winner is a real challenge here (the handicap is practically a ‘pick ‘em’ for a reason) but there are other punting avenues in this clash between the Eagles and the Bills.
With the ground talent we have on show, I’m eager to take a stab at a rushing yardage prop. The line for the whole game is set at 276.5 and that feels clearable.
Bills running back James Cook has been phenomenal this season and he currently leads the race to be the NFL’s top rusher. He’s averaging 102 yards per game and his form has been incredibly consistent, clearing three-figures in four of his last five outings.
Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley hasn’t been close to the heady heights of 2024, but his 71.5 yards per game over the course of the season has been reasonable and his recent numbers suggest he’s starting to near his peak at the right end of the season. Barkley’s average yardage over his last four games has been at a much more eye-catching 97, and he’s about to face a Buffalo defence that allows the third-most rushing offence in the NFL.
So, given the two premier running backs involved on Sunday evening, it’s safe to assume that around 200 rushing yards ought to be wrapped up between them. Then, we throw the quarterbacks into the mix – two of the most versatile athletes in the sport.
Over 15 games, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen have combined for an average of 64.5 rushing yards per game.
Based on averages alone, we’re already nearing the threshold on this particular prop bet – so we may not even require anything particularly out of the ordinary – but even the occasion alone adds to the plausibility that we can land this one.
This is a clash designed for big-game players and both QBs are very capable of taking games by the scruff of the neck. The lopsided match-up between the Eagles’ secondary and the Bills’ pack of solid but unspectacular receivers will likely force Allen’s hand (or should I say, legs) and, although Hurts clearly hasn’t used his running ability as much as usual this season, there’s been a clear uptick in his production in the last couple of weeks. Returns of 39 and 40 yards respectively were Hurts’ highest levels of output since week four.
I think we’re in store for a rushing masterclass on Sunday, and I think we can cash in.
Posted at 15:55 GMT on 27/12/25
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