Ross Williams previews Sunday night's action from the NFL, where New England Patriots are fancied to win big.
NFL betting tips: Week 12
2pts Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) to beat the Kansas City Chiefs at 11/10 (General)
2pts New England Patriots (-7) to beat the Cincinnati Bengals at 11/10 (General)
1pt New England Patriots (-13.5) to beat the Cincinnati Bengals at 39/20 (bet365)
0.5pt New England Patriots (-19.5) to beat the Cincinnati Bengals at 18/5 (bet365)
Kansas City Chiefs v Indianapolis Colts
- Sunday, 1800
The Colts are 3.5-point underdogs on Sunday evening and, for a variety of reasons, it’s a handicap line that doesn’t make all that much sense.
Indianapolis are fresh, coming off the bye, and they recorded a victory in Berlin last time out, adding to their impressive 8-2 record. After seasons of mediocrity, the Colts have catapulted themselves into championship contention, boasting the highest-scoring offence in the NFL and the current front-runner for Offensive Player of the Year honours in Jonathan Taylor.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, are sitting on a 5-5 record following back-to-back defeats. It’s incredibly unfamiliar territory for a franchise that has dominated their conference over the last half-decade. At the time of writing, they are third in the AFC West and, if the season was to end today, they wouldn’t even make the Playoffs.
Regardless, the bookmakers favour the Chiefs on Sunday, despite all the tangible evidence against.
It’s a handicap line built on three elements. Reputation, desperation and home-field advantage.
After years of dominance, there’s an expectation that the Chiefs will just find a way to get right somehow. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are winners and, admittedly, they have found ways to pick up results in the past, but this scenario does feel more drastic than what we’re used to.
At this stage of the season, Kansas City’s position becomes very precarious if their record falls into the negatives, so there’s a real urgency around this Sunday’s game. I understand that, but the other side of the equation is Indianapolis’ simultaneous need to stay in the win column. The Colts do lead their division but, with a difficult schedule ahead and the Jaguars and Texans threatening to keep pace, Indy also can’t afford to rest on their laurels.
Home-field advantage generally adds points to the handicap – particularly when that home field is a place like Arrowhead Stadium – but this match-up is an interesting one.
Since the turn of the century, the Chiefs have hosted Indianapolis on eight occasions and, remarkably, the Colts have won six of those games, including their most recent visit in 2019.
In fact, Patrick Mahomes has beaten 30 NFL teams in his career to date and only one side has had the better of him on each occasion he’s faced them. You guessed it, the one team he hasn’t beaten is the Colts.
The more you dig into this match-up, the more it feels like the handicap is based on a vibe, as opposed to underlying figures and form.
The match-up is also shaping to be the first occasion in which Indianapolis can select their first-choice secondary unit, with Charvarius Ward set to return and link up with Kenny Moore, Cam Bynum, Nick Cross and the Colts’ major midseason acquisition, Sauce Gardner.
Let’s take the best version of the Colts – with a field goal’s worth of points in hand – to take down the Chiefs and cement their position atop the AFC.
Cincinnati Bengals v New England Patriots
- Sunday, 1800
This looks like a really bad spot for the Bengals, and a sizeable opportunity for punters.
New England are in dreamland, riding an eight-game winning streak that began in September and has shown few signs of stopping. They’ve covered the spread in all but one of those games and the Patriots look well positioned to easily clear the seven-point margin the bookmakers have laid out for them on Sunday.
Drake Maye’s assent has been the headline-catcher in Massachusetts this season but it’s Mike Vrabel’s stingy defence that has really driven the Patriots’ success. They’ve allowed an average of just 18.7 points per game so far, ranking them among the NFL’s top five.
The struggling Bengals – on the other hand – are conceding points in total abundance. Through ten games, they’ve allowed 33.4 per game, a full four points more than the Cowboys, the second-leakiest defence in the league.
So right off the bat, before we truly dig into the match-up, there’s a huge 14.7-point disparity in the quality of these defences and that naturally presents the possibility of a blowout scenario.
In fairness to Cincinnati, they have fought fire with fire at times this season, albeit in defeat. They put up a combined 80 points in a two-week spell against the Jets and Bears quite recently.
However, they faltered substantially last week, scoring just twelve points against the Steelers and – due to a suspension picked up in that game – star receiver Ja’Marr Chase will not be suiting up at the weekend.
With four touchdowns in as many games, Tee Higgins has arguably been the pick of the Bengals’ receivers of late but playing in the #2 role is a very different proposition. Rather than picking on the second string of the opposition, Higgins will be covered by New England’s best corner – Christian Gonzalez – on Sunday and that’s a tough day for anyone. To date this season, Gonzalez hasn’t allowed a single touchdown to a player he’s covered.
So, we have a nine-win team with a top-ten offence against a three-win team with easily the worst defence in the game, and their most explosive receiver missing.
The NFL is never straightforward, but this looks like an ideal spot for a blowout and, with that in mind, I think we can play around with the handicap in the hope that New England take their opportunities and go for the jugular.
Posted at 1405 GMT on 22/11/25
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