Last year's equivalent preview landed big profits thanks to an 80/1 dead-heat winner, but Ben Coley has just one bet for the PGA specials this time.
Golf betting tips: US PGA specials
3pts Stephan Jaeger top German & Joaquin Niemann top South American at 4/1 (betway)
After siding with a collective of long drivers in Monday's outright preview, it was heartening to hear Matt Fitzpatrick's comments following his first look at Aronimink. "I look at the golf course that I just played, and it definitely favours length off the tee because a lot of the bunkers will be taken out of play," he said, also citing the challenge of these undulating greens.
If anything, this left me wondering whether the answer is as obvious as Rory McIlroy, who liked it here in 2018. There was a time – an entire decade, in fact – when the counter argument would've been that soft conditions that week brought out the best in him, but a matured McIlroy may prefer a more nuanced version of Donald Ross's most cherished masterpiece.
There are other ways to consider siding with McIlroy, however, and they include the first-round leader market at 20/1 and bigger. He has a remarkable record on day one, having led 42 times during his career at a strike-rate of about 10%, despite a strange, four-year window in the middle where he went without one. Since that ended at this very golf course, he's added 21 more at one in eight.
Even allowing for dead-heats, this has been a straightforwardly profitable way to follow the career of Europe's greatest golfer and if Fitzpatrick is right, and Aronimink rewards the most powerful and those with the best touch, then maybe the Masters champion really will end this week halfway to the unthinkable, and a calendar grand slam.
For now, with tee-times still to be released, we'll have to hold fire and revisit McIlroy later on but with the array of specials quite hard to unpick, leaning into the same lines of thinking makes STEPHAN JAEGER and JOAQUIN NIEMANN look solid bets for their respective top player markets.
Jaeger is a big-hitter with an excellent short-game and that gives him an edge over Matti Schmid, whose work around the greens is less impressive. That's always been a weakness for the third German player, Martin Kaymer, who arrives here having achieved very little on the LIV Golf circuit of late and lacks punch off the tee.
This ought to be a match between the two who play on the PGA Tour and both the make-up of the course and his superior major form and experience give the edge to Jaeger, who also holds a 6-3 head-to-head lead so far this year. At even-money and bigger, I like his chances.
Niemann has four to beat in the top South American market but one of them is a 38-year-old club pro who can be ruled out, leaving Jhonattan Vegas, Emiliano Grillo and Nico Echavarria. The first two are both struggling badly with their short-games and I find it hard to imagine Vegas repeating last year's heroics, when he led early on and stuck around for a top-10 finish at a more suitable course he both knew and liked.
By contrast he was a lowly 64th here 15 years ago and nothing he's done lately suggests he's in for a good week, a comment which also applies to Grillo, who fared only slightly better in 61st when he played Aronimink in 2018. He missed the cut when last he played in this event, as he had at the comparable Oak Hill in 2023, and with his putting a mess at the moment that fate looks likely once more.
All this leaves Echavarria as the man Niemann has to beat, but the latter is much longer as well as being excellent around the green, and while his majors record is famously modest for a player of such talent, it's much better than Echavarria's. Niemann was eighth in this last year whereas Echavarria hasn't yet managed a top-40 finish having missed five cuts in eight. He's generally been exposed at the highest level.
The Jaeger-Niemann double pays 4/1 with betway and just under 4/1 with bet365, both of whom allow multiples on these top nationalities markets. Most firms are around 33/10 with some on offer at 3/1 and all of these are acceptable, as I'd make both these favourites odds-on.
Some may wish to add some of the supposed bankers, such as Jon Rahm top Spaniard and Ludvig Aberg top Swede, and Stewart Cink top senior. All of these do appear solid but there is at least one dangerous rival for each of them and the same goes for Si Woo Kim, who would appear the pick of the Korean golfers but could always putt himself into trouble and isn't worth the risk at 8/15.
I'll stick to two for whom the weakness of their respective rivals is a big part of the argument.
@SportingLife specials
Sky Bet have offered two boosted prices for followers of our outright tips.
- 25/1 - Aberg and DeChambeau both top-five (including ties)
- 33/1 - Aberg top 10, Koepka top 20, Cantlay top 30, Niemann top 40
Strong English challenge expected
Fitzpatrick is the right favourite to be the top English player but the more I looked the more competitive it became. Tommy Fleetwood bagged yet another top-10 finish last week, Tyrrell Hatton was third at the Masters, and while Justin Rose's new clubs are a worry, his course record and ability to peak for major championships both demand respect after he too was third at Augusta.
That's before we get to the other Fitzpatrick, Alex, who has hit the ball wonderfully since becoming a PGA Tour member and must be walking on clouds after a life-changing six weeks, while there's even a case for former PGA third Matt Wallace at a big price. Marco Penge's length is a big asset if he's healthy, John Parry hasn't missed a cut all year, and Harry Hall's short-game could carry him a long way into the tournament.
There's no bet to be had there and while I'd prefer Adam Scott to Min Woo Lee in the top Aussie market, the price is no more than fair. Scott won for us at Doral and is no bigger in the betting despite the addition of three more players, two of whom have dazzling short-games. It's also fair to say that if a golf course is good for long-hitting players who are strong in that department, then it really ought to be good for Min Woo.
The other two markets I looked at closely were top South African and will there be a hole in one. On the former, it struck me that Casey Jarvis and Aldrich Potgieter both have severe issues around the greens and with Garrick Higgo struggling again, this should mean Jayden Schaper and Christiaan Bezuidenhout have an edge. They can be dutched, for those inclined, at even-money if you shop around to back each at 3/1.
Of course, neither is a big hitter whereas Potgieter is one of the longest in the field and that's enough of a doubt to avoid taking short odds, and as for the hole-in-one market, the issue is that no bookmaker has broken it down by hole as they do for the Masters. Were they to do so, the fifth would be worth looking at if you can get 2/1-plus, but evens for an ace anywhere is short given that the other three are long and difficult.
Posted at 09:00 BST on 12/05/26
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