The stage is set for a brilliant US Open weekend, unless the runaway leader keeps the field at arm's length. Ben Coley sets the scene ahead of round three.
Golf betting tips: US Open round three
2pts Bhatia and Fox to win their two-balls at 3/1 (General)
Wyndham Clark's putter awoke in time to open up a four-shot lead at the halfway point of a US Open which could be about to turn nasty this weekend.
Not everyone has been thrilled with the USGA so far this week, but this is normal. They were never going to please anyone. Come Sunday, however, they may just have won a few more people over, because having managed things to get us where we are, they appear set to release the handbrake and allow Shinnecock to really test these players.
It hasn't exactly been tame so far, either. Yes, greens have been left longer and slower and they're far more receptive than was the case in 2018, but still we've a grand total of 10 players under-par. Based on communications from the organisers on Friday night, that number is only likely to go in one direction from here. Clark's seven-under will be good enough to win. The question is, can he keep hold of it?
I very much doubt he'll need to but taking 7/4 with 36 holes to go isn't for me, not when conditions are expected to change quite significantly. That said there is one potential positive in favour of Clark and his fellow late starters, and that's the forecast. Wind will be present throughout the day, but it's supposed to gradually tail off, and the USGA have sent the leaders out as late as they possibly could.
That also speaks to a reality which should perhaps temper expectations of chaos. Were the wind set to be more significant, the USGA would not be able to speed up the greens. Their ambition to do so reveals something and means we're likely in for a difficult but far from impossible weekend where good scores will be out there, as they have been to this point.
Eight years ago, there was an enormous draw bias on Saturday, such that two players shot rounds of 66 from the early groups and wound up in the lead. Shinnecock was either unplayable or close to it for those out late, depending on which of them you asked, and instinctively my first thought this morning was might history repeat. Should we be backing players in those earlier groups in some of the side markets, perhaps to shoot the low round of the day?
The forecast says no and that focus should probably be on those at level-par or better. Under different circumstances we could perhaps narrow that window, but level-par is where we find both Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, priced at about 10/1 and 18/1 respectively, about four points bigger than they began the week. Both are clearly still in this tournament.
As a McIlroy backer, Friday's second round promised so much yet delivered, in the end, so little. He'd sauntered to three-under and a share of second, the weather was behaving, and it seemed likely that he'd be in the final group. Then everything changed with a skulled wedge to the 10th, from less than 80 yards, which began a run of three dropped shots, all from ideal positions with a short club in his hands.
McIlroy got two of them back but made another mistake with a wedge to register a double-bogey at the tough 14th and this time couldn't recover, leaving him with a tough job on his hands. Perhaps his target will be to break par this weekend and see where that leaves him. Perhaps both he and Scheffler, for now, have eyes on second place, three shots away, rather than Clark who has seven in hand over them.
Xander Schauffele also featured in my pre-tournament staking plan and bar playing the easiest hole poorly for the second day running, somehow making five and six from near 400-yard drives down the middle, he was excellent on Friday morning. Schauffele's extraordinary US Open record looks set to be extended through his 10th start and he appears the biggest danger. For now we can be hopeful, and the penultimate group is a good place to be.
Matt Fitzpatrick takes his place alongside Clark in the last pairing so we've two former champions and one bona fide specialist in groups which should enjoy the best of the weather, plus Collin Morikawa tucked in behind and Justin Thomas also under-par. Prospects of great volatility from here appear slim and it's likely the winner is mentioned somewhere above. Hopefully it might just be Schauffele and anyone entering now should consider whether backing him and Fitzpatrick at about 3/1 combined might be the way forward.
Clark of course could just make all but he sprayed several drives on Friday and may find it more difficult to recover. Then again he's a very recent winner who has been there and done it in this tournament, and there have been some echoes of LACC in both scoring and the nature of the test so far. I'm just not wholly convinced he has all the tools required should the USGA get what they want from this weekend.
Best two-ball bets
One player who catches my eye in a couple of markets is AKSHAY BHATIA.
The Bay Hill champion has hit his irons particularly well so far and at a general 6/5 makes some appeal to be the top left-hander with just four of them remaining. One is amateur Miles Russell, who begins the weekend three behind Bhatia and Brian Harman. The other is Robert MacIntyre, who is a further two drift.
With the draw only likely to make life tougher for MacIntyre, and 17-year-old Russell easy enough to oppose despite his immense potential, taking Bhatia in what looks a match is one possibility, but I have a lot of respect for Harman and his ability to grind out a score.
Preference then is for today's two-balls where I'm at a bit of a loss to explain why Bhatia and Keith Mitchell are priced as equals. There's not that much between them in DataGolf terms, but what difference there is is in favour of Bhatia. Every other metric suggests we can expand that gap and he ought to be odds-on.
Not only has Mitchell ridden an uncharacteristically hot putter, but the head-to-head reveals Bhatia's superiority. He's beaten Mitchell in six of the last seven tournaments in which they've both featured. What's more, the round-by-round score has him winning 17, losing eight and tying four so far in 2026, and four of the 12 he failed to win came in the first couple of weeks of January.
Since then, Bhatia has outscored Mitchell almost 70% of the time and as I'd also say he's mentally better equipped for major championship golf there's no hesitation in making him the day's best bet.
Other side markets of interest include top LIV Golf player, a midfield battle which Tyrrell Hatton leads. I'd be very happy opposing Dustin Johnson, who continues to flatter to deceive, but wonder how Joaquin Niemann will go from here. He'd be the pick at the prices but I was keen on Hatton pre-tournament and don't see great weakness in the favourite.
RYAN FOX is my other strong fancy as he's paired with a player in Michael Brennan whose short-game is a big issue.
Brennan's driving is some of the best in the sport and he's generally hit the ball well this week, but on and around the greens is where he struggles and that can only become more of an issue as these greens firm up. Conditions were ideal for him over the first two days but they seem unlikely to be from here.
Fox is a superior player for now (around 50 places higher in DG rankings), he's better in the wind, and he's turned up here in good form after a run of solid efforts in Signature Events before a good title defence in Canada. He's got a great pair of hands and should relish the turning of the dial so as with Bhatia, my feeling is he's best equipped of this duo before we begin to dig deeper.
Doing so reveals that he's comfortably ahead on all head-to-head metrics and has beaten Brennan in seven of the last 10 rounds they've both played. That's supportive data based of course on a very limited sample, but when you supplement it with the more nuanced elements there's a good case that Fox is value at evens.
Shinnecock with its teeth bared wasn't as random as some would have you believe back in 2018. In that spirit, taking two superior golfers in matches priced as pick 'ems, with conditions turning in their favour, is the preferred way to supplement what should be a fascinating evening. My only gripe is that the USGA are sending them out so late that it'll be Sunday in the UK by the time it's done.
Posted at 07:10 BST on 20/06/26
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