Ben Coley previews the first round of the PGA Championship at Aronimink, where early starters can make hay.
Golf betting tips: PGA Championship
1pt Bryson DeChambeau to lead after round one at 33/1 (General)
1pt Ludvig Aberg to lead after round one at 35/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt double Clark and Hojgaard to win their three-balls at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt double Bezuidenhout and Scott to win their three-balls at 38/10 (bet365)
0.5pt four-fold Clark, Hojgaard, Bezuidenhout and Scott at 25/1 (bet365, Sky Bet)
With all five pre-tournament selections out early on day one of the PGA Championship, I must admit that adding to the significance of the first few hours isn't something I am in a hurry to do, but there are a few good reasons to double down in the first-round leader market.
Firstly, Rory McIlroy still appeared in some discomfort during Tuesday's practice round as he nurses a blister, to the extent that he cut it short after just a few holes. Secondly, Scottie Scheffler and Cameron Young are both out late. Thirdly, and relatedly, while there's little in the forecast, early starters should be welcomed by a receptive, gentle version of Aronimink, and I suspect they will have an edge.
Jhonattan Vegas led from a late tee-time last year but Quail Hollow familiarity will have helped and prior to that, three elite golfers took turns to lead from a morning slot: McIlroy, BRYSON DECHAMBEAU, and Xander Schauffele.
DeChambeau rates the bet to do it again as the more I've heard, from the likes of McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick and several reporters, the more encouraged I am that his skill set will work very well here. Perhaps his short-game will be exposed over four days, perhaps his approach play won't quite be good enough from some uneven lies, but I'm optimistic about his prospects and he can get off to another flier.
The two-time US Open champion has three first-round leads in majors and while his recent form in this market comes from the far less competitive LIV Golf tour, six leads in his last 19 starts worldwide remains impressive. Having finished with a wet sail in Virginia last week, he might be the one to put up the early 63 we could well need at a course where 62 may not be out of the question.
Had McIlroy been fully fit I'd have been chancing him but instead, it's LUDVIG ABERG who gets the vote.
One of the hottest players in the world, several of the others who meet that description are out late so it's Aberg who can make a run at the lead having held it in the RBC Heritage recently. Second after 18 holes in the Arnold Palmer too and having stormed clear with a brilliant second round at Sawgrass, he can put behind him a slow start to the Masters last month.
Aberg has threatened the lead three times in what's still a majors career in its infancy and with conditions to suit, he and DeChambeau can feed off each other from the same three-ball although the third member of it, Rickie Fowler, can't be discounted. He's been flashing lots of low rounds this year and looks like a very good golfer again, one who has stacks of early form in major championships.
David Puig and Aldrich Potgieter are two powerhouses playing together from the first group out on the 10th tee and these explosive young talents could make an impression at bigger prices, but Puig didn't sound thrilled with his game when speaking on Monday while Potgieter's short-game may well cost him a shot or two even over just 18 holes.
Perhaps in-form Nicolai Hojgaard can go again after a near-miss last week and he has placed in this market in two majors already, while Gary Woodland has four top-10s from his last five opening rounds. This is the profile I'm ultimately keen on but for all its inherent volatility, so often the early pace-setter is genuinely world-class.
Best three-ball bets for Thursday's first round
To their immense credit, bet365 continue to price up every three-ball despite the inclusion of 20 PGA pros in this tournament, who I still believe take up too much of the market in most instances. Priced somewhere between 5/1 and 8/1 for the most part, I'd be surprised if more than one of the 20 were capable of winning their group and would suggest zero is more likely than two.
Unfortunately, gone are the days of most major bookmakers taking on this challenge so while a morning four-fold of Taylor Pendrith, Joaquin Niemann, Si Woo Kim and Ryan Fox looks good at about 6/1, we'll stick to the more widely available groups.
Among those, WYNDHAM CLARK can get the better of two much shorter hitters in Brian Harman and Cam Smith and win the battle of the one-time major champions.
Clark's superior length and encouraging form earn him the vote although I also like the fact his work around the greens has been really sharp for a while now. Yes, I'd prefer him to have played since the Zurich Classic but as he didn't qualify for the Signature Events, his options were limited, and his best finish of the season came right after a lengthy Christmas break.
Smith is working with Claude Harmon having ditched his childhood coach and that plus six major missed cuts in a row are good reasons to take on this weak driver, with Harman a bigger threat. He's hitting good approach shots and is sharp around the greens, but that lack of pop off the tee looks a definite disadvantage even if he is playing from the fairway.
It's also worth noting that in the seven events they've both played so far this year, Clark has beaten Harman's first-round score six times. More of the same and the 2023 US Open champion should have too many guns for an out-of-sorts Smith as well.
The aforementioned NICOLAI HOJGAARD completes an early double at about 9/2.
He's bang in-form, has already been involved in major championships, has prodigious length at his disposal and is even looking better around the green. With his driver really dialled in again, he has every reason to be optimistic about both this week and the US Open to come.
In with him are two other fine ball-strikers, but neither Rico Hoey nor Johnny Keefer arrives in form. Hoey was 53rd in an opposite event while Hojgaard finished second at Quail Hollow last week and exited early in both prior major starts. Keefer hit the ball better at the same tournament but continues to putt poorly and while rated the bigger threat, his majors record so far reads MC-61-MC.
That includes two big numbers at Augusta and with these greens likely to be similarly unkind to those who lack short-game confidence, another day of struggle awaits. In Hojgaard we've an ideal candidate to take advantage.
Heading into the evening, CHRISTIAAN BEZUIDENHOUT is being underestimated against two of the weakest PGA Tour players in the field in Adam Schenk and Brian Campbell.
All three of these are pretty short drivers but Bezuidenhout is superior in all other departments and over the last 12 months leads Schenk 13-3 in their tournament head-to-head. That's pretty one-sided and there's nothing in the recent form book to suggest Schenk is suddenly improved.
Campbell is one of the two or three shortest drivers in the field and while a career short-game week earned him 24th place in the Masters, he's since needed to keep putting well to finish 77th, 49th and 52nd. Bezuidenhout really ought to be odds-on to beat this pair.
The only other one I like away from those PGA professionals is ADAM SCOTT against Daniel Berger and Corey Conners.
Scott has some course form here but more relevant is how well he's playing. Fourth in the Cadillac was a sensational effort after an opening 76 and though he couldn't quite recover from a similar start last week, 24th was a continuation of the good golf we've seen from him throughout this year.
Clearly, we'll need him to tidy up on Thursday but if he does then he can outperform Berger, a short driver whose short-game has become a severe weakness, and Conners, whose long-game was poor at a course he likes last week. Scott has beaten him five times in six and it's six times in seven where Berger is concerned.
Long off the tee and a hugely underrated chipper, Scott not only has the best recent form but also looks the best equipped for the test ahead. Don't be surprised if he's in the mix at some stage this weekend, but first it's about avoiding another slow start. He can do exactly that.
Posted at 22:00 BST on 12/05/26
More PGA Championship content
- Ben Coley's comprehensive outright betting preview
- Best bets from the specials markets including 4/1 double
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