Ludvig Aberg takes a three-shot lead into the final round at Sawgrass. Ben Coley previews Sunday's conclusion to The Players Championship.
- Aberg three clear despite closing bogey
- Thorbjornsen alongside him in final group
- Leaders tee-off at 17:40 UK time
Golf betting tips: The Players round four
3pts double McIlroy and Berger to win their two-balls at 2/1 (General)
2pts double Straka and Schauffele to win their two-balls at 3/1 (General)
The beginning and the end were a bit of a mess but so good was the middle of Ludvig Aberg’s third round at Sawgrass, the Swede will carry a three-shot lead into Sunday.
Aberg was ragged from holes one to seven, barely hitting a quality shot, but a series of tidy putts limited the damage. It was somewhat ironic then that after ghosting clear of the field with nine near-flawless holes after that, it was short missed putts at the very end of the round that displayed just a hint of vulnerability.
The trouble is, key members of the chasing pack had already suffered greater damage. Matt Fitzpatrick ended with a double-bogey six, Cameron Young followed suit, and Xander Schauffele couldn’t get anything going all day. Jacob Bridgeman played the back-nine in three-over after getting within one, and Justin Thomas’s hopes of a stunning second Sawgrass win were badly hit by a seven during the front nine.
That means Aberg leads Michael Thorbjornsen by three, a player destined to win big titles but yet to win as a professional, and having felt yesterday that Aberg would go on to win, clearly that view has not changed. What has changed is his price and he’s 4/6 from 6/4.
Betting without him is more appealing as while Thorbjornsen coped so well for so long in Phoenix last month, it’s easy to imagine this being a tough day from which plenty will be learned. Unfortunately, where once this would’ve been available with any bookmaker with any interest in golf, as I type I can only see it with one firm.
That said bookmaker has XANDER SCHAUFFELE at 17/2 and Robert MacIntyre at 18/1 underlines why I’m keen to be with the former at evens in a place and 19/20 generally.
Schauffele had one of those days in a frustrating third round but he’s been outstanding over the first two and has been threatening a big performance all season.
Twice runner-up here in the past, he’ll have eyes on that spot at least and I would argue the prices here place too much weight on one round over the previous two.
Schauffele led MacIntyre by fully 10 shots at halfway and while the latter produced the best round of anyone on Saturday, his ball striking was unspectacular.
Bridgeman’s iron play was the worst in the field as he let slip a great position and he’ll struggle to contain SEPP STRAKA if that continues.
Straka has gained strokes through the bag this week at a course which is a good fit for him, so he can be relied upon to finish strongly.
Bridgeman got away with some poor approach play in round two as well so with that key department getting worse by the day, he now looks vulnerable.
Much earlier, DANIEL BERGER and RORY MCILROY look a very strong double.
Berger’s short-game let him down badly yesterday but his approach play was electric again.
He’s paired with Rico Hoey, whose long-game is his bread and butter. Unfortunately for him it’s gone missing this year and he’s dropped to near last now that his putter has predictably cooled.
McIlroy spoke earlier in the week about how hard it’s been to trust his back after last week’s spasms, but the way he hit it in round three suggests he’s there now.
More of that and he can end on a high against Nico Echavarria, who rode a hot putter on Saturday and always has a mistake in him.