Dave Tindall picks out his best final-round bets for the action at TPC Scottsdale.
Golf betting tips: Phoenix Open final round
1pt e.w. Maverick McNealy at 18/1 (Unibet, BetMGM 1/4 1,2,3)
0.5pts e.w. Robert MacIntyre at 33/1 (Unibet, BetMGM 1/4 1,2,3)
When it comes to West Coast Swing weirdness, I never thought we’d seen anything stranger than last year’s Farmers Insurance Open when Frenchman Matthieu Pavon edged out Denmark’s Nicolai Hojgaard by a shot. Both PGA Tour rookies were playing Torrey Pines for the first time and the event usually went to an established, world-class course specialist.
But going into Sunday at the WM Phoenix Open we have another absolute eye-popper as Belgium’s Thomas Detry holds a five-shot lead. Five! Detry fired a 65 on Saturday to add to rounds of 66 and 64. He’s 18-under par at a tournament where the winning score has been 20-under or better just twice since 2007.
Of course this is the Thomas Detry who has something of a Timeform squiggle next to his name; an unreliable sort in a finish. Not only has he failed so far to win on the PGA Tour (this is his 67th start), the 32-year-old from Brussels has never even managed a DP World Tour victory. Those words above will surely put off anyone thinking the 8/13 being dangled should be taken.
But, as with Pavon, Detry winning wouldn’t come out of thin air. Pavon had won on the DP World Tour just eight starts earlier while two tournaments prior to his Torrey Pines success he’d posted seventh at the Sony Open. Similarly, Detry already has a fifth at The Sentry and a 15th at the Farmers Insurance Open so far in 2025. Last May he was fourth in the US PGA while, as a Dubai resident, he’s very used to golf in the desert. Perhaps a five-shot lead along with such a body of work and background will lead you to back him after all.
Turning to the chasing pack, there’s a Hojgaard involved again here although this time it’s Rasmus. The twin had a twice-in-the-water ‘7’ on his card at 13 but finished birdie-birdie for a 65. And joining him on 13-under are two players on the comeback from injury - Jordan Speith (67) and Daniel Berger (66) - along with Twitter/X favourite Michael Kim. Kim did a Q&A at the airport ahead of the event although the thing I recall most is that he’s a Tottenham fan. He did at least say some key tee shots were his focus this week. For the record he’s 20th for SG: Off The Tee so far.
If Detry does stall and come back to the field, there are some juicy prices elsewhere and I’m tempted by the each-way prices (get the three places if possible) about MAVERICK McNEALY.
A breakthrough winner at November’s RSM Classic (Berger was runner-up), McNealy’s putter was red-hot in round three but he’s 4th for SG: Approach this week so you can’t say he’s doing things by smoke and mirrors.
McNealy said later after his 63: "It feels a lot like home, Las Vegas. It's a four, four and a half hour drive away, a little bit of altitude, kind of the warm dry desert air is something I'm very familiar with, too. This is turning into one of my favorite tournaments to play in. It's a lot of fun. Previous years it started to get a little out of hand, but I think right now it's in a sweet spot."
With an exemption secured and a Masters invite already sent, he’s playing with freedom and that definitely helps.
I’ll make it a double ‘Mac attack’ as it were by adding in ROBERT MACINTYRE at 33/1 with the firms offering three places.
McNealy is six off the lead but just a shot shy of second place. MacIntyre is seven back from Detry and lies tied seventh. He’s two behind the quartet in tied second on 13-under so could reel them in if he goes low again. His 65 on Saturday included seven birdies.
The Scot, a double winner on the PGA Tour last season, ranked 11th for SG: Approach in round three, a real uptick from the first two laps, while he’s 6th on the week for SG: Putting. Although new to this event, he has a bunch of good form in the desert playing the DP World Tour (seven top 20s in his last nine starts in the United Arab Emirates).
He’s more of a value play than my true idea of the winner or anything and for both McNealy and MacIntyre, make sure you head to the bookies paying three each-way places as most are offering just two.
All in all, a fascinating final round awaits. Will Detry get the monkey off his back? I kind of hope so from a non-betting point of view. And it will be just as interesting to see if Spieth can get over the line in just his second start back from a layoff.
There are some very promising signs: he’s 2nd for SG: Approach this week, a category in which he ranked 138th last season, and perhaps I’ll regret not taking the 11s. Oh, Scottie Scheffler (22/1) is eight back. He couldn’t make it three wins here in four years, could he?
Posted at 1010 GMT on 09/02/25
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