With a winner and a runner-up from his last two DP World Tour previews, Ben Coley has two strong fancies for the Turkish Airlines Open.
- National GC is the new host venue
- Puig and McKibbin add depth at the top
- Asian Swing gives out three major starts
Golf betting tips: Turkish Airlines Open
5pts win David Puig at 14/1 (bet365 enhanced win, 12/1 general)
3pts win Tom McKibbin at 22/1 (bet365 enhanced win, 20/1 general)
1pt e.w. Paul Waring at 100/1 (Betfred, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Kiradech Aphibarnrat at 110/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Jeff Winther at 225/1 (Betfred, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Alexander Levy at 300/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Given its location, Antalya represents a fitting place for the DP World Tour to transition into the upcoming European Swing and we do so with the Turkish Airlines Open, which has a new venue for its second year back on the schedule.
National GC was the first course to open in a region which is now such a popular tourist destination and it has become better regarded of late, though it's fair to say some would call this a slight downgrade on Regnum Carya, where Martin Couvra broke through last year.
I'd certainly rather we were back there at a course we could easily profile, but looking through the guide and some images from the Turkish Ladies Open, this place looks similar. Tall trees frame fairways which look like they will be slightly harder to hit and there's a fair bit of water, but reports of relatively sparse rough and some rain in the forecast all leads me to believe this will be a decent test, not a brutal one.
Brutal would be the word for the Challenge Tour event here here back in 2014, when only the champion broke par. But while that suggests National is at least a step up on Carya in difficulty terms, these courses were created for golf tourists rather than professionals, and the extreme conditions of that week – thick rough, firm greens – are not anticipated at this higher level.
On balance the change in course might not in fact change a great deal. It's not as though Carya was a cakewalk and its emphasis on approach play and putting, the two fundamentals of short-term success, may be repeated, albeit with a slightly greater emphasis on quality driving. There are four reachable par-fives and one monster of a par-four.
The field is notable for the absence of Patrick Reed and the inclusion of LIV players TOM MCKIBBIN, DAVID PUIG and Elvis Smylie, along with Jayden Schaper. Estonian amateur Richard Teder is here – presumably because he won the Turkish Amateur Open in January – and all who earned cards through Q-School get a game, having had to sit and suffer through a run of events co-sanctioned with other tours.
And it's Puig with whom I'll begin, as he looks the clear best player in this field as of today and the players who could legitimately challenge for that mantle have questions to answer: Daniel Hillier was poor on his return last week, producing his worst golf in more than six months, while Jayden Schaper could also suffer for taking a lengthy break.
Puig meanwhile responded to a missed cut in the Hero Indian Open with second place to LIV Golf's best player, Jon Rahm, in Mexico. Prior to both he'd been sixth in South Africa and this is a world-class player who has barely put a foot wrong lately, the only occasions he's done so being when met with less-than-ideal courses on two occasions.
Rewind to the very beginning of the season and Puig was third in the Dubai Invitational before finishing seventh in the Dubai Desert Classic, sent off at about 18/1 for the latter and the second best player really. Puig was the only one to challenge Patrick Reed and then suffered a two-stroke penalty for skimming sand with his wedge on the 72nd hole.
For my money, if he's an 18/1 shot in a full-field, Rolex Series event headed by Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton and Viktor Hovland, he merits being single-figure prices for this and that's before we consider that he was the pick of these players in that event, and has played the best golf among them subsequently.
Granted, Schaper did edge him by one but only after a horror finish and I give a sizeable edge to Puig given that he returns match-sharp. It's almost two months since Schaper played and while I'm probably guilty of dwelling too much on rustiness, it's hard to argue against the idea that it caught Hillier out in China.
Hiller and Angel Ayora are respected but I fear McKibbin more and while his very recent iron play is a nagging worry, a broader look at that department of his game since he gave up a PGA Tour card to join LIV Golf is positive. And, like Puig, he brings a very recent, high-class form line with him to Turkey, having been fifth behind Rahm.
His form in Spain when fourth at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid and at Valderrama, plus finishes of 10th and 11th in the last two renewals of the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, could be a good guide and while no fan of the beleaguered tour where he plays most of his golf, I do think its top-end strength can be underestimated at times.
Plus, the world number 99 will realise how important it is that he plays well in a tournament where making the cut earns you ranking points. The PGA Championship is a couple of weeks away and he just needs to stay where he is to be pretty sure of an invite (the criteria are precedent-based, not set in stone), although were he to win in Turkey he could sneak in via the DP World Tour's Asian Swing.
Puig has no such concerns at 61st in the world and bold showings from these prodigious drivers look likely. And with the other three big names having something to prove for the time being, I'll take the LIV duo against them.
I'm really not sold on many others near the top of this market. Antoine Rozner always merits a second glance and with his iron play red-hot, a good week off the tee might make him a threat, while Oliver Lindell is playing to a consistently high level and should go close again soon, but 28/1 in a good field doesn't scream value and I'd be a little wary of Rozner's driver.
Nathan Kimsey was interesting but quickly attracted support, so if there's one I'd regret it's Wenyi Ding. He didn't do a lot wrong last week from the wrong side of the draw and has doubled in price. That he's no longer playing on home soil is a negative, but he was 12th in this last year and started brightly on his first look at Eichenried, too.
I'll head further down the market for the remaining selections, starting with KIRADECH APHIBARNRAT.
Third at Montgomerie Maxx Royal and sixth at Carya, the Thai has a good record in this event but for whatever reason took an extended break following the events in China last year, so now returns to Turkey for the first time since 2019.
Having also been fourth at Eichenried and gone so close to winning at Wentworth, he's one of the players who helps tie these course profiles together and I'd be hopeful he finds similar comfort here at National GC.
Last week's best-of-the-year 13th place featured two rounds of 66, the latter beaten by just one player on Sunday, so after a slow start it was a welcome step forward – but not out of the blue. In fact, he's regularly been starting well only to fade late on and my sense is this is a player close to putting four rounds together again.
Sometimes the difference can be as simple as return to a tournament you've fond memories of and that was probably at play in China, where his approach play was improved. Typically accurate off the tee and with a brilliant short-game, another step up with his irons and we might be in business at a generous price.
Winther is coming
Davis Bryant placed at 350/1 for us when making his Eichenried debut last year and these tree-lined courses seem to suit, so the accurate American made some appeal. However, he's been well found in the betting after early support and with a patchy profile, I don't want to be taking less than three-figure prices.
Ready preference is for JEFF WINTHER, my pick of the rank outsiders.
Winther was five-over through nine holes last week, playing on the wrong side of a decent draw bias, and recovered to finish six-under for 25th place. It was an excellent turnaround and, for the second time in three starts, it was powered by high-class approach play.
Known as one of the deadliest putters on the DP World Tour when firing, he ought to be capable of getting in the mix soon if he can build on this turnaround and I'm hopeful that he can. Winther has produced bursts of it before and it was one of them which saw him win in Mallorca, where he ranked second in iron play and first in putting.
It's that kind of blend we'll probably need if this weak driver is to cause a surprise but on recent form that's not out of the question, and I do like the fact that he's one of just a few golfers to have played here before. Yes, he missed the cut, but back in 2014 he was a rookie making his third Challenge Tour start, and only nine players in a field of 156 bettered his Friday score.
Perhaps that will help somewhat and while he was disappointing in this event last year, there had been no signs of promise in Asia beforehand. This time he's produced 63 holes of quality golf (11-under for those holes was just four worse than the champion) and if he can keep big numbers off the card, he might just be dangerous.
Jason Scrivener continues to hit the ball well and was producing good results prior to struggling on the grainy greens of China, so with a couple of decent appearances in this to his name could go well. So might the impressive youngster Daniel Rodrigues, but I'll finish off with two seasoned winners who appeal at big odds.
First is ALEXANDER LEVY, who like Aphibarnrat had an excellent record in this event before it left the schedule. Levy played in it five times from 2014 to 2018 and never finished worse than 30th, contending when 10th on his final go having been right in the mix a couple of times previously.
He had to work extremely hard to earn to get back onto the DP World Tour only to lose his card last year, then finish a shot outside the cut-off at Q-School. That means he's playing out of a lowly category and has only managed to sneak into three events this time around, his results reading MC-29-38.
There's been definite promise, though, and 38th last week after a poor final round following two months off was almost as encouraging as the two top-10 finishes he produced in his final three events of 2025. It's much more like it and neither of those top-10s was via the back door as he spent all week in the mix.
I like the fact he's ranked 12th and 19th in strokes-gained approach over his last couple of starts, making it four in six of a high standard with the department which matters most, and he's holing putts again too.
Might it just be that we are going to get a renaissance from such a likeable character? For now I'm happy speculating at a resort course which ought to suit, as he's been 54-hole leader at Eichenried together with an excellent record here in Turkey.
Finally, although I've gone back and forth on this one I'm drawn to PAUL WARING.
He really never got a fair crack at the PGA Tour last year having stolen a card with victory in Abu Dhabi at the end of 2024, a bad shoulder injury requiring regular painkilling injections and plenty of strapping.
Competing out there when you're not fit is virtually impossible and he had to give up on it in July, spending almost five months on the sidelines before returning at the Nedbank Golf Challenge in South Africa.
Waring then came out and finished a promising 27th in the Dubai Invitational to begin this year, hit the ball better still when 32nd in Qatar with a very cold putter, and then went back to the USA to see what he could do with his medical extension.
Two narrow missed cuts in Florida offered more encouragement without much to show for it, particularly as he started to drive the ball better, and he's since put things together to finish 39th in the Houston Open and 30th in the Texas Open. The former saw him ping the lids with a round of 63 and what's striking is that he sounded genuinely bullish afterwards.
"I turned a corner, I feel much better about my own golf game, and I can have a bit of fun and a bit of a laugh and enjoy myself on top of that," he said. Asked to compare his game now to the shape it was in at the end of 2024, Waring added: "It's not a million miles away."
Waring said he had found momentum coming into Houston and to then back it up in a good field for the Texas Open goes down as hugely positive, so with this representing a marked drop in grade he was of definite interest.
Turkish Open form figures of 25-14-58-16 ultimately gave me enough encouragement to chance him at the odds and after a week which brought us two veteran DP World Tour players battling it out down the stretch, perhaps another of them can be the one to bring us compensation for a tough finish in China.
Posted at 19:00 BST on 27/04/26
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