Tom Kim can build on a fantastic US Open display and win the John Deere Classic, for which we have five more selections.
Golf betting tips: John Deere Classic
2.5pts e.w. Tom Kim at 30/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Daniel Berger at 45/1 (bet365, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Christiaan Bezuidenhout at 55/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. AJ Ewart at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Luke Clanton at 150/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Marcelo Rozo at 600/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Just when you think the PGA Tour might ease into its summer of second-class status, the John Deere Classic goes and attracts a quality field, although someone will have to explain to me what Chris Gotterup and Ben Griffin are doing here. Both are in good form, both have played the last fortnight, so this would've seemed like a fine opportunity to take a break with a couple of massive weeks in the UK to come.
Perhaps that can be taken as a statement of intent, perhaps with the new two-track system to come they simply can't pass up the chance to play TPC Deere Run one last time. Whatever the case, they help ensure that Jackson Koivun, the dominant amateur who played nicely in the US Open last time, will not begin his professional debut as the favourite. Not quite, anyway. Koivun has been well supported into 22/1.
Times really have changed. Collin Morikawa's professional debut saw him open up at 750/1 while Cameron Young won a Korn Ferry Tour event at 300/1. Ludvig Aberg (who won a Nordic Golf League event at 400/1 while still an amateur) started off in an admittedly strong Canadian Open at upwards of 50s, perhaps an indication of what was to come. Then again, Nick Dunlap did manage to win as a completely unfancied amateur.
Anyway, the point of this is to say that Koivun, who finished 11th in this tournament last year, could be a superstar who goes and gets it done at the very first attempt. But I'll remind readers that it took Scottie Scheffler more than 50 starts spread over two seasons before he could realise a long-held dream – and that when the time did come for Scheffler, he was a bigger price than Koivun is for this.
Whatever you think of his chances, it's a nice, gentle introduction for the 21-year-old, because this is a low-scoring event and one of the handful he's experienced already. Deere Run is a decent little course where scoring is quite low but not quite as low as its reputation suggests. Last year, 18-under got you into a play-off and it would've been enough to finish second a couple of times recently as well.
The test isn't complicated: keep it in play and take aim with generally short irons. There are three par-fives but one of them is generally a three-shot hole; there are two short par-fours, one on either side, and the 14th generally sees players attempt to drive the green. Beyond that there isn't much to say. Winners typically putt well but not always and Brian Harman was abysmal in that regard yet still captured the title in 2014.
Harman, like more recent champions Brian Campbell, Sepp Straka and JT Poston, is a short, straight driver of the ball. Two-time runner-up Emiliano Grillo has a game built around accuracy, as do CT Pan, Brendon Todd, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and many more contenders. If there is a formula at a course which does limit the damage long driving can do, then it's that: fairways first and see if the rest follows.
My instinct was to suggest that this represents a golden opportunity for Michael Thorbjornsen, despite the fact that he's not the dream fit on paper. Sometimes, such analysis has to give way to the facts at hand, a bit like when the weather app tells you there's no rain forecast but the clouds above your head say otherwise. Thorbjornsen was 17th here as an amateur, runner-up on his third start as a professional, and 21st last summer. He can play the course.
However, I'd class him as having been underwhelming at best since the very beginning of the season and 54th place on an ideal course in Canada last time was worse than that. Before it he'd failed to come through US Open qualifying and before that he'd faded badly from a promising position at Colonial, one week after he'd shot an opening 64 at Craig Ranch yet still missed the cut. Patience is wearing thin.
Preference then is to take the bait and side with TOM KIM, after he contended in the US Open last time out.
Kim was understandably thrilled at the way he stuck at it to be third at Shinnecock, beaten only by two elite players, and if I were him I'd be a little aggrieved not to have been rewarded with a place in the Travelers, where he'd previously been second.
Hopefully that further sharpens his focus although that ought to be a given as he looks to finalise his comeback in a Presidents Cup year. He's still only 10th in the standings but after that performance two weeks ago, consistency from here would surely see him selected regardless.
Back to the case at hand and this is an accurate driver whose wedges are a big strength, and whose return to form has been happening for a while now. Kim was sixth in the Myrtle Beach Classic, made the next two cuts and then finished 15th in Canada, before which he'd also qualified for the US Open over 36 holes.
His iron play has been excellent really since Phoenix in February, his short-game is as good as ever and he's putted much better over the last three months than he had the first three (from -0.26 strokes per round to better than average), so if there is a slight weakness still to remedy it's that he isn't quite hitting fairways in the way he used to.
Shinnecock's wide targets must have helped and these fairways at Deere Run are certainly generous, so hopefully he can avoid a shocker off the tee which is what he produced on his debut here last summer. Kim was in a rut at the time, without a top-10 finish in five months and failing to make an impression anywhere. The fact that his iron play was red-hot here can perhaps even be taken as a positive given that context.
Returning now buoyed by one of the best performances of his career, Kim was always going to be popular but we've a higher ceiling with him, plus the knowledge that two of his three PGA Tour wins so far followed a top 10. They correlate well, too; Summerlin is a similar-length par 71 where Poston won the last renewal, while he's also a past champion at Sedgefield along with John Deere winner Lucas Glover.
Everything suggests Kim ought to play well here and among the top 15 or so names in the betting, nobody bar Poston has a game better suited to this course on paper.
Perhaps that's harsh on Jordan Spieth, a two-time champion, and I'd have expected to be gobbling up 33s. However, he's been really poor over the last few weeks, seemingly lacking confidence both off the tee and with the putter, and while Deere Run and a drop in grade are both sure to help, I doubt it'll be enough.
Instead, I'll side with the more tangible improvements made by DANIEL BERGER recently.
It's been a frustrating season for the former Ryder Cup player, not least in the way he lost out to Akshay Bhatia at Bay Hill. That probably knocked him back a little and he's without a top-20 finish since, but it's worth noting that every one of these starts has come in a Signature Event or major.
That makes this a significant step down at a course where he was fifth in 2017 plus fourth at halfway before fading in 2019, and while less eye-catching in two more visits the most recent came during a very difficult 2024 season. Returning now fit and healthy, inside the world's top 50 and competing with the best in the game most weeks, he can demonstrate that Deere Run is perfect for him.
It really ought to be. Berger is ninth in strokes-gained approach, an excellent wedge player, and he's an accurate driver too. The reason for missed cuts at the Memorial and in the US Open was the putter, which was horrendous in both, but it'd been solid before and, crucially, improved through each round at the Travelers. Berger was never dangerous in 25th but the way he went about it set him up nicely for this.
Notably, Berger is not in the field for the Scottish Open and I'm hopeful he can take advantage of this clear opportunity to win for the first time in five years. Each of the other three came at a somewhat comparable course, where his lack of power is no handicap and his deadly approach work can help him to a winning score.
All were a bit tougher than this but, when he's putting well, Berger has all the tools for a shootout.
So does CHRISTIAAN BEZUIDENHOUT and he's another who has gone close here, finishing second in 2022.
Two missed cuts since perhaps help prop up the price a little but Deere Run often produces a varied set of results even for the most ideally suited player, and Bezuidenhout's blend of accuracy, good iron play and red-hot putting is a really good one for this.
He's been playing well, too. In fact he's missed just three cuts all year, two of them by a shot and the other at Sawgrass, so there's a sense that he's close to putting four rounds together. He didn't do that at the PGA but stayed on very well on Sunday, then was close to the lead through 54 holes at Colonial, before four solid rounds in Canada at a golf course that isn't made for him.
Across the latter two, Bezuidenhout's putter rather let him down but that's not likely to last too long and it's good to see him hitting fairways again. His irons also looked promising in Canada, where he was 10th for greens hit and fourth in strokes-gained approach, and more of the same would make him a big threat given that his putting ceiling is as high as almost anyone else in this field.
Those missed cuts at the course still came with positive strokes-gained approach numbers and his second four years ago was his best golf of the year, so I'm in no doubt whatsoever that Deere Run is a good place to go hunting that first PGA Tour win. Bezuidenhout has had a winner's cheque because he finished second to an amateur in the AmEx; that's a shootout and he has all the tools for this one, too.
At 68th in DataGolf's rankings he's actually a couple of spots ahead of Kim but unlike the Korean, Bezuidenhout has a big job on his hands to make the Presidents Cup team. This might be the best chance he gets to make an impression.
Max Homa contended here last year and has started to hint at better so I won't be surprised if he fares well again, while Seamus Power is a fine wedge player who as a result seems to find comfort here even when struggling. Perhaps that'll be the case once more but there haven't been many positives lately and he's overlooked.
Instead, I really like the profile of rookie AJ EWART, who like compatriot Sudarshan Yellamaraju has been one of the surprise packages of the season.
Ewart hasn't quite created the headlines of Yellamaraju as his progress has been rather quieter, but nine top-30 finishes in his last dozen starts is some going for a player who earned status via Qualifying School rather than the Korn Ferry Tour.
Key to his success has been the putter as he's third for the season among this field, but his approach play has been improving lately and he's gained strokes on his last couple of starts. Notably, he's better with his wedges, particularly from 50 to 125 yards, and he ranks 20th in overall proximity when playing from the fairway.
Unfortunately he isn't the straightest of drivers despite not being a powerful one and that's the question mark, but these fairways are generous and, if he can bump up his driving accuracy stats as a consequence, we could be in business.
Ewart closed with a round of 66 in Canada last time, he fired a second-round 63 when 17th at Colonial before that, and the pick of his efforts this season came when playing beautifully at the weekend for 11th in the Valspar. Perhaps he can step up on that at another tree-lined golf course which ought to suit.
Believe it or not 750/1 chance MARCELO ROZO made some sort of appeal as he's deadly accurate and has hit the ball well all year, only for some horrendous putting to hold him back.
There's nothing to indicate that'll change here but his standout Korn Ferry Tour effort came in Illinois at a course which does correlate well and it really would just take a good week on the greens to suddenly make him dangerous.
Hand on heart there's just not anything to suggest that's around the corner but he does have a couple of good putting displays to his name this year, back at the beginning of it, and to be frank when a 750/1 chance catches your eye it's hard to say no. At least, it is for me.
Those who can stomach the missed three-footer on the first hole can join in at those standout prices or take a fraction shorter for some places as I have. It's a minimum-stakes play that will likely lose, I can't make that clear enough, but his accuracy and wedge stats make this a really good course to go and set up some chances.
Next, I'll speculate that LUKE CLANTON can upstage Koivun back at a course he loves.
The two are good friends having been college rivals and before Koivun it was Clanton who arrived on the PGA Tour as a touted superstar. He made his professional debut in Canada just over a year ago and was grouped with Rory McIlroy and Ludvig Aberg for the first two rounds.
This was on the back of several excellent performances as an amateur, including second place here and a near-miss in the RSM Classic, but it's been tough since he turned pro – perhaps another note of caution for the man of the hour, Koivun.
Clanton has largely hit the ball well only to struggle badly on the greens but that's where there have been signs of life at last. He's now made seven cuts in a row and four of his last five measured starts have seen him produce positive putting numbers.
In fairness there are some driving issues too and that's where I hope these wider fairways help him put four rounds together, which he's looked close to doing. Last time out in Canada he was 19th through 54 holes only to stumble on Sunday; before that his one bad round at Colonial came on Saturday, as it had a couple of times in Texas as well.
But we are seeing regular flashes of quality, with rounds of 64, 65 and 66 recently and a field-leading performance with his irons in Myrtle Beach, and for the season he ranks 12th in proximity from 50-125 yards.
Given that he was first in strokes-gained tee-to-green here two years ago and hit the ball just as well when missing the cut last summer, I'll take my chances that there's something about Deere Run that brings out the best in this big talent.
Andrew Novak made some appear after a closing 63 last week but he's only a couple of places higher than Clanton at 134th in the putting stats and, at just 40/1, that's enough of a worry. Likewise, the putter is Kevin Yu's nemesis and while that hasn't been the case here in the past, it's continued to hold him back of late whereas Clanton has started to improve.
I won't be alone in hoping Patrick Rodgers can win soon after baring his soul and this event is a special one to him, but there's nothing in the recent form book which suggests that'll happen and the more I look, the shorter my shortlist becomes.
Posted at 09:30 BST on 30/06/26
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