Free golf betting tips for the Arnold Palmer Invitational from Ben Coley
Golf expert Ben Coley gives his take on Tiger Woods' chances at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, plus five each-way selections ranging from 20/1 to 250s.
Arnold Palmer Invitational recommended bets
2.5pts e.w. Rickie Fowler at 20/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Zach Johnson at 66/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Kevin Chappell at 75/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Francesco Molinari at 75/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
0.5pt e.w. Si-Woo Kim at 250/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
For those monitoring Tiger Woods closely, last week's runner-up finish at the Valspar Championship was either a case of perfect timing or premature something-or-other as he heads to Bay Hill in search of a remarkable ninth triumph in the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Woods had been quoted at 18/1 for this week's event by one firm prior to his effort in Tampa, but having contended throughout there the revised prices were understandably shorter when they arrived on Monday morning. No less surprising is the fact that they have been taken, with only a few standing firm at 13/2 at the time of writing. It will probably last no longer than those lingering hopes that we might have been able to back him at 20s had he struggled last week.
Strip away betting, and of course Woods' performance in the Valspar, where he came up one shot short but not before that electric moment on the 71st hole, rates a positive. He now arrives at Bay Hill having familiarised himself with wearing that Sunday red in the heat of battle, with having a putt for a play-off even, and that can only be good news for those willing to take the plunge.
With Bay Hill form figures of 9-13-56-1-1-1-1-46-23-20-22-1-1-24-1-1, if you have backed Tiger you have every right to feel his price is still plenty generous and can also cling to echoes of 2009, when Woods' victory here capped his return from the knee injury which had kept him out from the end of the 2008 US Open to the start of March. Back then, he'd had two nice preps, latterly ninth place at Doral, and reeled in Sean O'Hair in the fading light for a famous success.
Personally, I'm happy to sit back and let him win. Top-level golf is a heck of a lot more competitive than it was a decade ago and while this field isn't necessarily a full representation of that, with the world's prolific top four all absent, the move from 33/1 last week to 13/2 here looks just a little severe. However thrilling it was to see Tiger in contention, he didn't quite win and while I don't hold that against him, we are talking about a different player and a different sport now.
When Woods took the title here in 2013, Rickie Fowler paid the price for trying to serve it up to him as a closing 73 dropped him to third, but I'm hopeful he can demonstrate that he's capable of going a couple of places better some five years on.
Three weeks ago, Fowler was a single-figure price for a renewal of the Honda Classic which featured Justin Thomas, currently the most prolific player on the planet and one of the game's true elite. We all know how that ended, Thomas edging out Luke List in a play-off, and for me it was an outcome which underlined why you have to think very carefully before taking ultra-skinny prices as Fowler failed to so much as make the weekend.
Yet despite playing just the WGC-Mexico since, and suffering an uncharacteristically abysmal week on unique poa annua greens which had foxed him a year earlier, Fowler is now 20/1 and bigger in a field which does not include Thomas. That's some turnaround, especially as he led the field in greens hit last time out, and on balance has to be considered an overreaction.
We very rarely get the opportunity to back Fowler at 20-plus - hence why I very rarely write about him these days. Indeed, he's no bigger for any of the four majors, yet here he does not have to beat the very best and nor does he have to prove that the course fits, because in six visits he's made five cuts, twice contending for the title, while even last year's 12th place included a third-round 65.
Fowler isn't the only player in this field who would dearly love to win for Arnie, but his relationship with The King was particularly strong and, at a course where he won a junior title in 2006, he looks by some distance the strongest option at the front of the market.
Justin Rose has a strong course record but was terribly disappointing on Sunday, Rory McIlroy appears further from peak form than Fowler and there are form and fitness concerns about Henrik Stenson. With Hideki Matsuyama returning from injury, that leaves Jason Day and Tommy Fleetwood as the two other serious players and both are respected, but it's Florida resident Fowler who is much preferred on this occasion.
There have been some skinners here - two of them courtesy of Matt Every - and at monster prices I'd advise you not to totally overlook Collin Morikawa. He's the fourth-ranked amateur in the world, arrives on the back of successive college wins and, in two main tour starts, has already bagged a runner-up finish at the Air Capital Classic on the Web.com.
This of course is another level entirely but Morikawa is definitely on the list of potential stars and, increasingly, they're capable of performing from the off. He could be of some interest in the first-round leader market while there are worse ideas than to speculate that he might be good enough to nab a top-20 finish, having carded 16-under in a 54-hole tournament last weekend.
More realistic are the claims of Luke List, Jason Kokrak and Jamie Lovemark, three big-hitting maidens who have all looked like winners-in-waiting for some time, and all have something to recommend them here.
However, Bay Hill remains a subtle layout despite Jason Day's bomb-and-putt deconstruction two years ago and the all-round quality of Zach Johnson appears more likely to be rewarded.
The two-time major champion would be a fitting winner of an event so significant, and having been inside the top 25 in seven of his eight starts dating back to the BMW Championship last September, Johnson is in the sort of form which makes him a big contender at around the 66/1 mark.
In 14 starts here, he's backed five top-10 finishes, missing the cut only once, and it was encouraging to see a return to bermuda provoke an improved putting display when he finished 14th at the Valspar Championship last week.
Johnson remains an above-average putter, but it's a while since he's been a deadly one and combined with the fact that he cannot overpower any golf course, that explains why too often he's been on the fringes of contention without adding to his impressive haul of 12 PGA Tour wins.
Last week, on a course which rewards positional play rather than brute force, Johnson gained strokes on the field in every department for the first time in 2018 and that sets him up perfectly for a return to Bay Hill, where he was ninth in 2015 and fifth in 2016.
Seeing fellow 40-somethings Phil Mickelson and then Paul Casey end their own victory droughts can't have hurt, Johnson's stretching back to the 2015 Open Championship, and I can't fathom why he's priced up along with Kevin Na, Emiliano Grillo and Lovemark. Surely, he's entitled to be closer to the front of the market and he's a strong each-way fancy.
Like the aforementioned Every, Johnson thrives in events such as the Texas Open, the Sony, Colonial and the RBC Heritage, and Kevin Chappell rates an interesting contender having won the former last season.
It was a long overdue success for the former Nicklaus Award winner who was considered one of the brightest sparks in US golf when he emerged on the scene, and his rewards for it included a Presidents Cup debut late last year - an experience he'll be keen to repeat in Paris come September.
This season he's been a model of consistency, undermined as usual by a slightly troublesome putter, but he signed off from Mexico in good form in that regard and he'll be a huge threat here if able to build on it.
Chappell confesses to feeling comfortable at Bay Hill, where his relentless ball-striking and love for a demanding test is rewarded, and he did very little wrong here when second to Day in 2016, leading the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green as we've come to expect.
Throw in finishes of 14th and 24th, the latter on debut six years ago, plus second in the PLAYERS, second at Jack's place in the Memorial and second to McIlroy in the TOUR Championship, and it's clear that there's a lot in favour of a player who tends to produce his best golf against the very best.
Whether that would be enough to see him take down Tiger on Sunday remains to be seen, but having finished between sixth and 31st in all six starts in 2018, it seems clear to me that Chappell is close to hitting the frame and the price on offer looks generous. Like Johnson, he's of a standard slightly higher than those around him in the betting, and I don't see that there are any real doubts over the current state of his game, or the suitability of the golf course.
If you're looking for a genuine horse for this particular course outside of Woods, then Francesco Molinari is the one having produced form figures of 34-5-17-9-7.
The Italian ranked fourth in strokes-gained tee-to-green in Mexico last time, let down by the putter on difficult greens, and that's been the story of his first few starts of 2018 as he searches for a little confidence with the flat stick.
Having gained strokes on the field with it on three of his five starts here, there can be some hope that Molinari will improve for a return to Bay Hill where he'd desperately like to win - not least because his brother was runner-up here at the start of the decade.
At third in strokes-gained off-the-tee so far this season, Molinari junior is exuding control from the tee as usual and that formula is a good one here.
Molinari's form figures don't look altogether inspiring, but I don't believe he's played in a truly suitable event so far this season. There are no excuses on that score now returned to Florida, where he's also built up a fine record in the not dissimilar PLAYERS Championship as well as here at Bay Hill.
That lack of obviously compelling recent form has protected his price a little and if you can get 66/1 or bigger, he looks rock solid.
Ben Martin and Adam Scott both featured in last week's staking plan and it was tempting to forgive them, particularly the former who has a better record here at Bay Hill, fought back well to make the weekend and remains 150/1.
Scott is also the same sort of price as he was at the Valspar, despite a much stronger record in this event, and the strength of his overall record in Florida is such that the remaining 40/1 is certainly worth considering. We've seen two Australian winners in succession here and Scott, who ought to have won the event in 2015, might be the pick of them at the prices this time.
Russell Knox continues to build confidence and has long been a resident of Florida, a good enough pointer in itself, while there's a case to be made for 2009 runner-up O'Hair after he sprang to life at another of his favourite venues last week. The Texan putted poorly but still bagged a top-15 finish in the Valspar and is equally suited to this test, enough to earn him a place on the shortlist at 200/1.
However, at 250/1 it's Si Woo Kim who earns a speculative vote.
One of those players who seems to thrive on bermuda grass, he putted as well as he has in a long time at the Valspar and need only marry that with his ordinarily strong ball-striking to be a force here.
Kim produced a sensational display to win last year's PLAYERS, an event which represents a definite guide to this one, and his form now is almost identical to that which preceded third place in the OHL Classic late last year.
The young Korean remains a player with a massive future and while he hasn't exactly shown it in two starts at Bay Hill, he has made the weekend on both occasions which means he has experience in the bag and something to build on.
Capable of springing to life from nowhere, there was enough in his effort at Copperhead to take a small chance. Unlike most at this sort of price, he has untapped potential, has already demonstrated an ability to beat high-class fields including in Florida, and he's not one I'd want to be laying at the prices available, that's for sure.
Posted at 1955 GMT on 12/03/18.
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