Louis Bollard delivers his antepost preview for the 2026 Formula One season, with three long-term fancies at big prices to consider.
Formula One betting tips: 2026 season
3pts e.w. Kimi Antonelli to win the World Championship at 9/1 (William Hill (1/5 1,2,3)
3pts Ferrari to win seven or more races at 9/1 (bet365)
2pts Two or more Did Not Finish in each race at 20/1 (Ladbrokes)
Awesome Antonelli
The 2026 regulation changes have been dubbed as the biggest ever regulation shift in Formula One as lighter cars must now be 50% electric and utilise active aero configurations. This will require totally new driving styles as the emphasis on saving and deploying the battery will be imperative, potentially shaking up who has been the lead driver in each team.
One driver who this should suit is KIMI ANTONELLI. Mercedes have been the winners with the new regulation changes, having found a solution in the engine compression ratio that other teams won't be able to replicate. This should give the Mercedes engine cars an advantage at least until a change in the way the compression ratio is measured in the summer, so expect Toto Wolff's team to make hay at the start of season, especially on tracks where recharging the battery is difficult including the opening weekend.
George Russell is outright favourite across the board reflecting Mercedes expected high performance, but the young Italian is the value. After a rocky first half of his debut season in 2025, he was a match for Russell in the latter stage of the season, winning the head-to-head in three of the final six races, which included two podiums. Antonelli can continue this upward trend, helped by the driving style reset, and challenge his teammate for the title.
Prancing horse to awaken
While Mercedes should be the strongest overall, the different engine setup in the FERRARI should suit on plenty of circuits. Testing showed that Ferrari are not far behind Mercedes, and probably ahead of Red Bull and McLaren on long run pace.
These new regulations have made race starts a challenge for all drivers, except for those with a Ferrari engine. Ferrari spotted early that there would be a problem with spinning up with turbo at race starts and hence designed a smaller turbo which gives a massive advantage off the start line.
A rule changed was proposed to the start procedure but was shot down by Ferrari ensuring they have this advantaged locked in. Testing proved their advantage in this area as we saw all the Ferrari bomb past their rivals on the practice starts.
Overtaking looks to be a challenge so getting ahead off the line can be a huge advantage to Ferrari. They are a general 5/2 second favourite for the constructors championship but my preference is for seven race wins at 9/1.
Reliability concerns
Like in 2014 at the start of the turbo hybrid era, expect significantly more DID NOT FINISH this year. Testing proved that these new power units are no guarantee to complete race distances, no better example than Aston Martin whose Honda power unite struggled throughout testing and was only able to complete six laps on the final day in Bahrain.
Aston Martin are expected to DNF early in Australia due to a combination of lack of parts and extreme vibrations from the power causing injury to the drivers.
2025 was one of the strongest in F1 history for reliability and yet two or more retirements occurred in 13 of the 24 races. Introduce an additional two cars from a new team who should have their own reliability problems combined with the power unit concerns for all teams and we should see far more retirements this season.
While there are 24 races on the calendar, recent world events may result in race cancellations which would mean the 24 race target for this bet would be reduced.
Posted at 14:45 GMT on 05/03/26
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