Winless Wolves host Manchester United on Super Sunday, and Jake Osgathorpe has a couple of bets for the clash.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Manchester United to win at 10/11 (MansionBet)
1.5pts Wolves to take 14+ shots at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Wolves have had a tough schedule to open the season. Having faced Leicester and Tottenham Bruno Lage’s men now take on Manchester United, meaning they will have faced three of last season’s top seven in their opening three fixtures.
Successive 1-0 defeats would suggest they have continued where they left off under Nuno Espirito Santo, but that isn’t the case, as Wolves have won the expected goals (xG) battle in both matches.
Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Wolves 18/5 | Draw 13/5 | Man Utd 3/4
While that may suggest they have been unfortunate, and they have to some degree given Adama Traore’s two one v one misses in two games, the way in which they are racking up the xG is not a sustainable way of playing.
In total, Wolves have taken 42 shots in two games, only Liverpool (46) have taken more, but have racked up just 3.5 xGF from those attempts.
All of that means that the average xG per shot that Wolves are taking is a tied league-low 0.07, meaning every attempt they take has a 7% of being scored, on average.
This would mean the Old Gold would need to take over 14 on average to score a goal, which shows just how unsustainable this way of playing is.
Pot shots from distance won’t work when it comes to winning matches, but in terms of a betting angle, it could help us out.
WOLVES TO TAKE 14+ SHOTS is priced at 11/10 on Sky Bet, and Lage’s side have covered this line in both games so far this term – albeit helped by the game state as Wolves have gone behind fairly early.
I can see something similar happening here, especially if Manchester United start as quickly as they did against Southampton last time out.
While United were held at St. Mary’s, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side deserved to win based on quality of chances created (xG: SOU 0.66 – 2.16 MUN).
Fast-starting United
United racked up 72% (1.54) of their xG total in the opening 15 minutes of the game, being unfortunate not to take an early lead.
They flew out of the blocks, and Wolves have shown that they are still slow starters – a trait of Nuno’s side, too.
United have been excellent defensively so far this season, even without Raphael Varane who is yet to be introduced, allowing 1.48 xGA in two games, the third lowest xGA through two games.
Couple that with an attack that is creating chances, and United have a great chance of beating a Wolves team who are still in transition.
We can back MANCHESTER UNITED TO WIN at a best price of 10/11 with MansionBet, priced as short as 3/4 elsewhere, and that appeals.
They have started well from an underlying number standpoint, and still have Edinson Cavani, Jadon Sancho and Marcus Rashford to come back into the fold.
An early goal would set this game up in the same way as Wolves’ previous two matches, and that is exactly what I can see happening on Sunday.
Wolves v Manchester United best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Manchester United to win at 10/11 (MansionBet)
- 1.5pts Wolves to take 14+ shots at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Wolves 0-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1115 BST (27/08/21)
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