James' 25/26 record: Staked 29pts | Returned 31.22pts | P/L +2.22pts | ROI 8%
19:45 – Serie A: Milan vs Cagliari and Verona vs Roma
1pt Milan and Roma both to win at 8/11 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
20:00 – La Liga: Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid
1pt BTTS and Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal) 1+ Shots on Target at 17/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Milan vs Cagliari and Verona vs Roma
- Kick-off: Sunday, 19:45 BST
- TV: DAZN
Serie A plays to a conclusion this weekend and throws up some smart betting opportunities.
Five of the 10 Italian top-flight fixtures kick-off simultaneously on Sunday night and there is something at stake in all five games.
Much attention will be focused on Cremonese and Lecce's games as they battle to avoid relegation to Serie B alongside already-relegated Verona and Pisa.
Cremonese (18th) face a tough test at home to Como, the visitors looking to qualify for next season’s Champions League via a top-four finish. Relegation rivals Lecce (17th) sign-off at home to a mid-table Genoa that have nothing to play for.
It is Derby day in Turin, where mid-table hosts Torino would love nothing more than to deny arch-rivals Juventus a Champions League berth. Juventus, lying sixth, may miss out on a coveted top-four spot anyway, as recent form has seen them drop down the table.
Which brings us to Milan (3rd) and Roma (4th). They are in the driving seats to claim the final two Champions League positions behind title winners Inter and second-placed Napoli, and we expect them to stay there.
Milan face a Cagliari side that are 16th, have nothing to play for, and will almost certainly lack the quality as well as determination to trouble hosts that need to win to secure their Champions League spot.
Roma also need to win to claim Champions League football next season. On a run of four straight victories, they should triumph away to already-relegated Verona, who have nothing to play for, and whose home record is the division’s worst (W1-D5-L12).
As you’d expect, Milan (2/7, widely available) and Roma (7/20, Coral) are short prices. For better odds, roll the much-fancied duo into a WIN DOUBLE.
Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid
- Kick-off: Sunday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Premier Sports 2
- Live odds, form and stats
Third place in the final standings is up for grabs when Villarreal and Atletico Madrid meet on Sunday night.
Villarreal are third and Atleti fourth heading into the weekend, but all is not what it seems: as head-to-head results rather than goal difference is the decider in the event of two teams finishing on the same number of points, which means Atletico Madrid need only a draw to be third, since they won the reverse fixture 2-0 last September.
The visitors will be confident of getting the point they need. They are W4-D0-L1 from their last five league matches, and will be intent on underlining their status as the division’s third-biggest club by completing the podium behind champions Barcelona and runners-up Real Madrid.
Villarreal's primary reason for confidence is their home form: they are W14-D1-L3 in front of their own fans, and an even more impressive W14-D1-L1 when you discount their home fixtures vs Barcelona and Real Madrid.
In other words, you can make a case for the hosts at 29/20 and the visitors at 7/5. As the outsider of three, the draw also deserves attention at 14/5, especially as it’s an outcome the visitors would take.
We prefer the BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE market. A high number of goals has been a feature of Villarreal’s recent home games: the last seven have had three or more goals, with both teams scoring on each occasion. Atletico Madrid will also be confident of finding the net: they have done so in each of their last six away matches.
The odds of 4/9 about BTTS may be too short for some. So, we'll double it up with GEORGES MIKAUTADZE 1+ SHOT ON TARGET.
Georgia international striker Mikautadze is the hosts’ 12-goal top scorer and is finishing the season strongly: he has scored three times in his last two starts, and managed at least one shot on target in each of his last three.
Odds correct at 15:45 BST (22/05/26)
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