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Football betting tips: Women's World Cup 2023
2pts Aitana Bonmati 1+ shot on target at 11/10 (Betfair, PaddyPower)
1pt Aitana Bonmati to score anytime at 5/1 (General)
1pt Spain to win and under 3.5 goals at 13/8 (Sky Bet, Coral)
0.5pts Amanda Ilestedt to score anytime at 9/1 (bet365)
One thing’s for sure: with the traditional big guns ousted, we’re going to have a new champion at at the Women’s World Cup.
Spain and Sweden clash in Auckland with the former playing a first semi-final of a major tournament since Euro 1997, while the latter are looking to go one better after falling at this stage in France in 2019 and at last summer’s Euros.
While both have laid out their title credentials for all to see with their performances to date, Spain look to be the better side on the ball. Adept at creating chances from midfield, they can hurt teams from anywhere on the pitch and Sweden may be forced to play deeper than usual, relying on Stina Blackstenius’s counter-attacking and their main outlet: the set-piece.
What are the best bets?
To start with, backing anything involving Spain's standout player at this World Cup, Aitana Bonmati, makes sense. Her name doesn't carry the same weight as that of twice Ballon d'Or winner Alexia Putellas, but as Alexia takes time to return to full potency on her comeback from an ACL injury, it's her Barcelona teammate who is shining.
She has filled the creative breach remarkably well for her club having moved into a more advanced midfield role this term, scoring 19 times in the double-winning campaign - but with 11/10 odds on AITANA BONMATI 1+ SHOT ON TARGET, perhaps the bookmakers haven't been watching.
Aitana sets the rhythm of the game, picks killer passes, stretches opponents and – on three occasions this tournament – does bag goals. With odds of 5/1 available AITANA BONMATI TO SCORE ANYTIME is another pick worth entertaining.
What’s more, she’s been able to flex her newfound attacking muscles much more following Jorge Vilda’s bold decision to bench Alexia for the knockouts – a trend that I’d expect to continue, based on her performances.
Taking a look at Sweden, what can we say about their knockout run? Impressive, undoubtedly. Goalsome, no.
Peter Gerhardsson’s side got the job done from 12 yards against the USA after goalless draw saw the Americans spurn the better of the chances. Against Japan, a Filippa Angeldal penalty was the difference in a 2-1 win.
The moral of the story is Sweden look to unpick their elite opponents, rather than batter them into submission. And though a disappointing Italy side were routed 5-0, a bet on under 3.5 goals would have landed in all of the Swedes’ other four games.
That’s why I’m also looking at SPAIN TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS. There’s little value on offer in backing a Spanish win outright, but stacked La Roja are rightly favourites against a team who have relied largely on the goals of defender Amanda Ilestedt to get them this far.
If either team is to wrap this up in 90 minutes, it’s likely to be the Spanish, who learned a valuable lesson against complacency when losing to Japan in the group stage, hammered Switzerland to get back on track and were moments from beating the Dutch in normal time on Friday.
But before I sign off, that last part leads me onto one pro-Sweden angle that should be considered. When a defender is top-scoring at a major tournament, it usually signals a strong presence at set-plays and that's exactly the case here. As a more left-field punt, I like the look of AMANDA ILESTEDT TO SCORE ANYTIME.
The new Arsenal signing has scored four so far at the World Cup, and odds of 9/1 seems worthy of attention for a small stake.
There’s been a lot of romantic talk about the Swedes’ run, and yes, this World Cup does likely represent the final time their ageing side will be able to make a play for a trophy. But scripts like that have little bearing on the outcome in reality and in my view, the argument that Sweden ‘really want this’ holds little weight; so do Spain, who have blocked out all the pre-tournament noise surrounding boss Jorge Vilda and their player exodus.
Sweden have the experience, but Spain have the class.
Score prediction: Spain 2-1 Sweden (Sky Bet odds: 13/2) 1298646113
BuildABet @ 13/1
- Aitana 1+ shots on target
- Spain to win
- Ilestedt 1+ shots on target
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
We’ve outlined the reasoning behind the Aitana leg and for the Spain win already, while also singing the praises of Ilestedt.
However, that goal comes in at longer price for obvious reasons and the value on offer from Ilestedt merely finding the target is good enough for this trio.
Team news
For Spain, new Real Madrid right-back Oihane Hernandez is suspended after picking up three yellow cards, but otherwise Jorge Vilda has a full complement to pick from. Clubmate Olga Carmona will likely swap in to take the left-side slot, with Ona Batlle playing on the right.
No fitness concerns have been reported for the Swedes.
Predicted line-ups
Spain: Cata, Olga, Codina, Irene, Batlle, Hermoso, Abelleira, Aitana, Mariona, Esther, Redondo.
Sweden: Musovic, Andersson, Eriksson, Ilestedt, Bjorn, Rubensson, Angeldahl, Rolfo, Asllani, Rytting Kaneryd, Blackstenius.
Odds correct 1445 BST (14/08/23)
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