Football betting tips: Play-offs
2pts Over 30.5 total match shots at 5/2 (bet365)
A tie which has been dominated by the conversation about events off the pitch rather than those on it.
You'll have done well to avoid the storyline surrounding this one. Middlesbrough claim they found a Southampton 'spy' observing their training a couple of days before the first leg. An EFL charge followed for a breach of two regulations.
Tonda Eckert wouldn't discuss it beyond the media-trained 'we have put a statement out' or 'investigation ongoing' route but it's hardly a surprise that it's the main topic of discussion ahead of the second leg.
We await the outcome - at this point we don't know - but both sides will continue to prepare for this in the normal way you'd imagine (well, one of them may have to adjust their methods).
Middlesbrough came out flying in the first leg but couldn't find a way through. It's what we've come to expect from a brilliant footballing side - arguably up there with ones we've seen in this division - yet the inability to convert chances is a problem.
Only Coventry (16.3 game average) had more shots than Boro (16.2) in the regular season, with 21 coming and five on target in that first leg draw.
Southampton could only return six and it's fair to say that's much lower than what we usually see from them. Game state certainly played its part and you imagine they'll be pleased with the final outcome.
At home, they've shown they can be shot happy. Only five sides returned more shots in front of their own supporters and the expectation will be another strong attacking showing.
OVER 30.5 TOTAL MATCH SHOTS looks a bet at 5/2 given the teams involved and the likely game state.
Southampton's 2-2 draw with Ipswich - their last home game - delivered a total of 37, while there were 31 in Boro's previous away outing at Wrexham (another 2-2 draw).
Boro also saw 33 when they visited Ipswich while they had 18 in defeat to Coventry in February. It hasn't been a case of simply bumping up their shots total tally when playing the poorer sides in the division.
In fact, they've registered a double figure shots count in 41 of their 47 league outings this season - the same applying in 21 of 23 on the road.
They've covered this line themselves twice (one of those against Millwall) while the required 15 on the basis of a near 50/50 split for this bet has been hit in 58% of contests.
You could settle on Middlesbrough's shot line which is set at 12.5 in places (although as is always the case with stats markets some go lower). Although we again have to remember game state.
The away side leading in the latter stages could see them barely have an effort on goal as they look to keep out the likely waves of Southampton attacks. It would be frustrating to see Middlesbrough hit a decent amount, score, and then hold onto what they have and a bet ending a couple short.
You imagine that we'll be hearing a fair bit about these two clubs over the next few days regardless of result. On the pitch though, I'm expecting plenty of action.
Odds correct at 12:10 BST (11/05/26)
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