Football betting tips: Championship
1.5pts Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall 1+ shots on target at Evs (Sky Bet, William Hill)
1pt Both Teams to Score in the second half at 2/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt Will Smallbone and Stephy Mavididi to each be shown a card at 40/1 (bet365)
If Southampton's opening six fixtures of the season are anything to go by, Sky Sports viewers should be in for a treat on Friday night.
Those six matches have featured 26 goals at an average of 4.33 per game, including a shock 5-0 reverse at Sunderland prior to the international break.
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Leicester, who began Enzo Maresca's reign with six straight wins before losing at home to Hull last time out, have been a tad more reserved but, in third spot, are four places and two points better off than their hosts.
Yet to concede more than one goal in a game, they appear to have patched up the defensive issues that plagued them last year, albeit against teams with far less potent attacks than they faced in the Premier League.
What are the best bets?
Five games in means only a small sample size to play with but plenty of Saints stats leap out, namely they have enjoyed more shots on target than any other side in the division - but also allowed the second-most 'big chances' at the other end.
Goals at both ends is a Russ Martin staple - last year his Swansea side's matches averaged 2.87 goals, the second-most in the division, and the season before the figure was 2.74, the fifth most. The guy is a bit gung-ho and wants exciting football.
The bookies, though, of course, know this and there are some very short prices around as a result but I'm keen to get BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE onside in some way and the best method is to back it to happen IN THE SECOND HALF at 2/1.
Saints' five games have featured 11 second-half goals, while there have been seven after the interval in Leicester's opening quintet of matches. Both sides could take a little while to get going after the fortnight off so back the fireworks to come later.
Kiernan the key man
In terms of players, the standout value arrives via KIERNAN DEWSBURY-HALL to have 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET. It's a Sky Bet price boost at Evens but Hills are offering the same odds anyway.
KDH has attempted 3.6 shots per game this term and has six shots on target in five games - only nine Championship players have more. Against a leaky Saints defence, Dewsbury-Hall is almost certain to try his luck and hopefully double our money.
'More sinners than Saints'
Finally, I can't resist a booking bet - Southampton top the ill-discipline charts so far with 21 yellows while Leicester are fifth with 14. Again, as with goals, the bookmakers are expecting cards with 27 players priced 7/2 or shorter.
For future reference, the TO BE SHOWN A CARD market is one to keep an eye on with sinners Saints - it may be a coincidence but Swansea topped the 'unfair play' table last season when Martin was in charge there.
It's a bit of a needle in the haystack job - 22 players from both squads have seen yellow already - but it's worth picking out a value double given Robert Madley, who averaged 48.6 booking points per Championship game last season, has the whistle.
I'm going for Saints midfielder WILL SMALLBONE, 1.7 fouls per game, and Foxes striker STEPHY MAVIDIDI, two yellows already, to incur Madley's ire. You can back 11/2 and 13/2 singles respectively but the double is 40/1 via bet365's Bet Builder.
- Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall 1+ shots on target
- BTTS in the second half
- Callum Doyle 2+ fouls
- Adam Armstrong to score or assist
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Teenage Leicester defender Callum Doyle has committed an average of three fouls per game so far this season and with Southampton's possession stats the highest in the division, he should get drawn in at least a couple of times again.
Adam Armstrong has either scored or set a goal up in four of his five games so far this term. Southampton are creating 1.7 xGF (Expected Goals For) per game and Armstrong is the main man benefiting in the final third.
Score prediction: Southampton 2-2 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct 1500 BST (14/09/23)
Team news
Southampton's Scotland striker Che Adams could be in line for a recall after his rumoured transfer failed to materialise before the window closed.
On-loan Manchester City defender Taylor Harwood-Bellis may make his Saints debut but Southampton's other deadline-day signing, ex-Sunderland striker Ross Stewart, will have to wait for his bow as he continues to recover from an Achilles problem.
Leicester will have former England and Wolves defender Conor Coady in their squad for the first time since his summer move after his recovery from a foot injury but he is unlikely to start.
Dennis Praet (back) and deadline-day forward signing Tom Cannon (hamstring), however, will be unavailable. Praet is out for around three months while Cannon's return date is unknown.
Predicted line-ups
Southampton: Bazunu; Walker-Peters, Manning, Bednarek, Harwood-Bellis; Smallbone, Downes, S Armstrong; Adams, A Armstrong, Edozie.
Leicester City: Hermansen; Pereira, Faes, Vestergaard, Doyle; Ndidi, Winks, Dewsbury-Hall; Mavididi, Iheanacho, McAteer
Match facts
- Southampton won both league meetings against Leicester last season in the Premier League – the Saints haven’t won three in a row in the league against the Foxes since March 2008.
- This is the first league encounter between Southampton and Leicester outside the Premier League since 2011-12, with the Foxes winning both Championship meetings that season.
- No team’s Championship games have seen more goals this season than Southampton (22 – F10 A12). They're the first side to both score and concede 10+ goals in their opening five Championship games since Nottingham Forest in 2016-17.
- Leicester have won their opening two away league games this season, only the third time they’ve ever done so in a season, previously managing it in 2013-14 (first two) and 2020-21 (first four).
- Southampton and Leicester are the top two teams for average possession and successful passes in the Championship this season, with the Saints top (71.4% possession, 3,270 passes) and Foxes second (65.4%, 2,686).
- In their 5-0 defeat to Sunderland, Southampton were the first Championship side to have 68% possession and ship five goals since Swansea in April 2022 vs Nottingham Forest (70%, lost 5-1), with the Swans then managed by Russell Martin.
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