Sporting Life
Our best bets from across this weekend's Serie A action

Serie A tips: Weekend best bets and previews

By James Cantrill
Football
Mon October 03, 2022 · 3y ago

James Cantrill looks for winners from Serie A, picking out six best bets for the weekend slate.

Football betting tips: Serie A

1.5pts Both Teams To Score in Juventus v Bologna at 1/1 (SBK)

1.5pts Musa Barrow Over 1.5 Shots in Juventus v Bologna at 4/5 (bet365)

1pt Under 2.5 Goals in Atalanta v Fiorentina at 19/20 (Vbet)

0.5pts Cristiano Biraghi Assist in Atalanta v Fiorentina at 11/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)

0.5pts Gerard Deulofeu Assist in Verona v Udinese at 7/2 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Verona v Udinese

Udinese briefly topped the table on the Sunday lunchtime before the international break after coming from behind to beat Inter.

The Zebrette responded quickly to Nicolo Barella’s freekick as Milan Skriniar turned Roberto Pereyra whipped freekick into his own net. However, Andrea Sottil’s side left it late to secure the win.

They dominated large periods of the second half, Sandi Lovric called Samir Handanovic into action, then Gerard Deulofeu hit the post before Lazar Samardzic had an effort blocked in the same phase of play.

It was not until the 84th minute that they got their noses in front though as Jaka Bijol glanced in a corner.

As the visitors pushed for an equaliser they left gaping holes defensively that was capitalised on in a rare foray forward as Tolgay Arslan found himself in the box, with nobody around him.

His bullet header crashed off the crossbar with so much ferocity it bounced onto the line before nestling in the roof of the net, ensuring the three points and that put his side at the top of the pile until roughly 17:35 on Sunday evening.

GERARD DEULOFEU was the man who supplied the crosses for both of the late Udinese goals, one from open play and the other from a corner.

This has taken his assists tally to five for the campaign, a total no Serie A player can better.

On paper, he lines up upfront, but the freedom Sottil’s system facilitates gives him licence to roam and he often finds himself peeling into that right hand channel and it is from here he picks his passes.

The former Barcelona man has averaged 3.4 key passes per game, completing a staggering 12 across his last two appearances, which is why I fancy him to get another ASSIST on Monday.

Score Prediction: Verona 1-3 Udinese (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)

Odds correct 0800 BST (30/09/22)

Juventus v Bologna

Juventus season has lurched from one disaster to another.

They have not tasted victory this month, losing three of their last five in all competitions, Massimiliano Allegri’s men have slid to 8th in the process.

Already seven points behind leaders Napoli and Atalanta, despite only being a fifth of the way into the season, the race for the Scudetto looks to have passed them by.

The latest melodrama came in their most recent game, courtesy of a 1-0 defeat at Brianteo Stadium against a newly promoted Monza side that languished at the foot of the division, yet to win a game.

This was the first time since Catanzaro in 1972 that a team had picked up their inaugural Serie A win against Juventus. A defeat that sparked the latest flurry of rumours that Allegri’s days are numbered, not that the Old Lady’s supremo will pay any notice.

They host a fellow out-of-form side in Bologna. The visitors have only won once all season leaving them dangerously close to the dotted line.

Thiago Motta’s men have found the net in all bar two of their fixtures though, which is why backing BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE appeals here.

They have only failed to make the net bulge twice, once in their most recent fixture against Empoli and the other in their trip to the San Siro to face AC Milan.

Bologna have every right to be aggrieved that they did not score at least once across this three hour period of football as they generated an xG of 2.72 in total.

Juventus have conceded an xGA of 1.28 per game this season, failing to keep the opposition out in any of their last three games.

WHAT IS EXPECTED GOALS? USE xG TO INCREASE PROFITS IN FOOTBALL BETTING

The Old Lady are shipping a lot of shots this season, just under 13 per game to be exact, conceding 15 or more in all bar one of their last five games in all competitions. Monza racked up 17 efforts in Juve’s most recent defeat, which was the Serie A new boys greatest tally so far this season.

With this in mind, and props priced up, I think the Rossoblu’s attackers are worth considering in the shots market.

Chart topper MUSA BARROW looks like value to have 2+ SHOTS in Turin. He has averaged 3.4 per game, hitting this line in each of his five appearances this season.

In fact, the attacker appears to have adopted a shot on sight approach recently, racking up 10 shots in his side's last two fixtures.

Score Prediction: Juventus 2-1 Bologna (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct 0735 BST (30/09/22)

Atalanta v Fiorentina

Atalanta are the early leaders and continue to set Serie A’s pace as we head beyond the international break and towards the World Cup induced gap.

Following last season's 8th placed blip, Piedmontese Gasperini has remoulded La Dea into a tighter, more efficient unit, replacing some of the free scoring razzle dazzle with pragmatism and it is serving the Bergamo based boys well.

Level with Napoli on 17 points, the pair are the only two unbeaten sides left in the Italian top flight and, given the pedigree of sides Atalanta has bested so far, you have to wonder could this be their year?

I touted overs in Atalanta’s most recent victory, as goal separated them and Roma, stung as I was not quite ready to accept that goals may not be synonymous with Gaspi’s side this season.

This was the 6th time two or fewer goals have been scored in their games this campaign as UNDER 2.5 GOALS has clicked in 86% of their fixtures.

The majority of Fiorentina's games have also seen a lack of goals, five have featured fewer than three goals with two ending as stalemates.

Interestingly, this bet would have landed each of their three clashes with the league's biggest and best sides this campaign, drawing 1-1 with Juventus, losing 1-0 to Udinese and drawing 0-0 with Napoli.

No Serie A player has averaged more key passes than CRISTIANO BIRAGHI. Fiorentina’s left back is averaging 3.5 key passes per game, registering at least one in each of his league appearances, and a lofty eight against Cremonese.

For those unaware, a key pass is a pass that comes directly before a shot, and despite Biraghi racking up 23 this campaign, his teammates poor finishing means that he still awaits his first assist.

Biraghi has generated an xA of 1.02, an average of 0.20 per game, building on last season's galling tally of 6.32 xA, where he only managed one assist.

If you were to base his price for an assist on his actual total from the start of last season, 20/1 would be too short. However, based on his xA (0.19) I make the 11/1 available with the Betfair Sportsbook worth a punt here.

Score Prediction: Atalanta 1-1 Fiorentina (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Odds correct 0745 BST (30/09/22)

Weekend best bets: Serie A

  • 1.5pts Both Teams To Score in Juventus v Bologna at 1/1 (SBK)
  • 1.5pts Musa Barrow Over 1.5 Shots in Juventus v Bologna at 4/5 (bet365)
  • 1pt Under 2.5 Goals in Atalanta v Fiorentina at 19/20 (Vbet)
  • 0.5pts Cristiano Biraghi Assist in Atalanta v Fiorentina at 11/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
  • 0.5pts Gerard Deulofeu Assist in Verona v Udinese at 7/2 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)

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