If the scale of Aston Villa supporters’ emotional meltdown over the weekend felt like an ungrateful or even hysterical reaction to the club’s latest defeat then it’s worth saying two things.
First, yes, it was a bit much. But second, what they’re really worrying about isn’t Unai Emery or even Villa’s receding chances of Champions League qualification this season.
Villa fans are a shaky bunch because they know they are on wobbly ground; they know that just beneath the gleaming surface is an abyss.
No Premier League manager of the last decade has enjoyed the level of control Emery has been given. He is a manager in the Sir Alex Ferguson or Arsene Wenger sense of the word, sculpting everything from transfer policy to the academy, and although it has made sense to hand the keys to such a talented person it does, of course, leave Villa worryingly exposed if and when Emery leaves.
That’s important context when trying to understand why Villa fans are panicking en masse.
The theory goes that when Emery leaves the whole thing collapses; that Villa as a title-chasing outsider is a mission built on sand, a daydream from which they will soon awake into the more familiar pains of mid-table obscurity.
The pessimism is well placed, because aside from Emery’s world-class coaching Aston Villa aren’t actually getting much right.
Nine of the 16 players given minutes in Friday’s 2-0 defeat to Wolves played under Dean Smith, the last but one Villa manager (there was Steven Gerrard in between) who hasn’t been in the Villa dugout since November 2021, 1577 days ago.
On another day, Tyrone Mings might have started ahead of Pau Torres and the injured John McGinn could have taken that number up to 11.
Villa’s transfer dealings have been woeful and many of those signed to great fanfare, including the ostracised Harvey Elliott, have immediately fallen out of favour with Emery, a disconnect made all the more bizarre by the Villa manager’s influence on recruitment.
If the scouting department and the transfer committee cannot get it right when the manager is heavily involved then what chance does the club stand if a future head coach is given a less active role.
Away from signings there has been widespread unrest about high ticket prices and the upscaling of VIP-style experiences that have left supporters feeling like the club sees them as mere consumers in a free market.
If Villa are quick to anger it’s not because they’re entitled. It’s because they can see how this is all going to play out, can sense that should the manager leave the club is not in a good position to kick on.
Those fears are only growing as Emery starts to look a little stuck.
Over the last couple of months Emery’s core tactical principles are beginning to fall flat. Opponents have clearly worked out how to negate Villa’s press-baiting and narrow attacking lines, with Wolves, Brentford and Leeds all deploying similarly narrow defensive shells to simply block the middle, refuse the invitation to press, and crowd out Morgan Rogers.
So far Emery has shown no inclination to fix it. In fact, his stubbornness in the face of mounting evidence has been a cause for concern.
Strong cameos from Tammy Abraham and Ross Barkley have not been rewarded by starts and even when mid-match formation changes (to a two-striker system) have worked Emery has been reluctant to start games in anything other than his tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1.
He is not necessarily doomed to failure by repeating the same tactical ideas. It’s noteworthy that while Villa have recently dropped points against Wolves, Everton and Leeds they have also beaten Brighton and Newcastle in the same period, suggesting that it is only against deep defences that Villa struggle.
They should enjoy the more chaotic rhythm of a home game against Chelsea on Wednesday, and if Liam Rosenior’s hard-pressing football brings out Emery’s fast-transitioning best then Villa, in victory, would move nine points clear in the Champions League places.
If that was to happen the rising angst at Villa Park will dissipate as quickly as it arrived. But it would lie dormant, just out of sight.
Aston Villa supporters know the Emery project cannot last forever.
Each game that ends in miserable defeat, each game that appears to show stale tactics, each game that shows a jaded set of Dean Smith players running as if on autopilot, draws the terrifying prospect of a post-Emery world that much closer.
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